German Election

[mindlight]

German election polls #btw17

Various combinations seem possible if the polls are to be believed but the CDU and Merkel look like being at the heart of an coalition

CDU - SPD (most likely)

CDU-FDP (needs 2% more votes)
CDU - FDP- Green (possible)

CDU- Green (only if polls are really wrong)

Overall as in the UK German politics has moved in right wards direction - with the AFD some 58% of all polled votes are for centre right or rightwing parties

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Apparently nonpartisian research from the Bundestag suggests that Merkel exceeded her authority in opening the doors to he country the way she did two years ago. We'll see how this affects the election...

Bundestag questions legality of Angela Merkel's refugee policy

 

[Nithavela]

Apparently nonpartisian research from the Bundestag suggests that Merkel exceeded her authority in opening the doors to he country the way she did two years ago. We'll see how this affects the election...

Bundestag questions legality of Angela Merkel's refugee policy

Those that disliked her for it will continue disliking her and vote SPD or AFD. Those that were okay with it will continue with their votes. Maybe a few people on the fence will jump ship, but I don't see any kind of upheaval.

 

[mindlight]

Apparently nonpartisian research from the Bundestag suggests that Merkel exceeded her authority in opening the doors to he country the way she did two years ago. We'll see how this affects the election...

Bundestag questions legality of Angela Merkel's refugee policy

Merkel looks like winning. While the refugee crisis did seem to empower AFD to a considerable extent most Germans only want a tougher approach to rejected asylum seekers and more manageable numbers of immigrants.

Merkel seeks fourth term as Germany votes

 

[mindlight]

So the CDU looks like the strongest party and will get to choose the government. But it looks like the SPD will not be a part of the coalition this time and they have said that. As with the Lib Dems in the UK they have effectively been destroyed by coalition anyway.

It looks like a CDU-FDP-Green alliance this time. So maybe a strong front on Climate change, higher defence spending and a more business like approach to the economy.

The AFD did well in South Germany and in East Germany.

Merkel lost a lot of votes to the right to the AFD. But if she has the Greens as a partner then she will have to balance the hunt for AFD votes with a left-wing coalition partner. Could be a tough next 4 years for her.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Still relevant I think...

It appears that the CDU/CSU got its worst result since 1949. Merkel is only staying on because the SPD's results were even more dismal.

 

[mindlight]

Still relevant I think...

It appears that the CDU/CSU got its worst result since 1949. Merkel is only staying on because the SPD's results were even more dismal.

Like the cartoon, but Merkel is staying on cause the CDU remains the largest party and can therefore choose the government. With likely FDP support she just needs to persuade the Greens to form a government. But there are strong differences between these parties on coal fired power stations for instance. Most Germans want her to remain as Chancellor. #BTW17

Bundestagswahl 2017

While 87% of Germans did not vote for the AFD it seems there is a protest vote here as in much of the rest of Europe against an establishment that takes voters for granted. We saw it in Brexit, En Marche and with Trump in the USA also. The boring way that technocratic politicians have functioned and the politically correct way they speak is at odds with issues that prompt deep passions over immigration and terrorism for example. My hope is that the FDP can bleed off a lot of the AFD votes over the next 4 years while the CDU get the Greens and SPD votes. Then we can return to the traditional CDU-FDP alliance that characterised the Federal Republics most successful years.

 

[The~Cerberus~Infinite]

Here's hoping the AFD can affect some positive change in Merkel's desire to destroy the Germanic people.

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

Merkel signals readiness for new election after coalition talks collapse

 

[mindlight]

Merkel signals readiness for new election after coalition talks collapse

All very messy. Guess the differences between the FDP and the Fundi side of the Green party are too profound, maybe a coalition with the Realos greens would be possible if the Green party splits but that does not look likely. The SPD are unlikely to approve a new coalition cause the members would not approve it. But if there was an election tomorrow they would have an even worse result than last time so the new coalition politics is probably not about a grand coalition anyway.

The FDP and CDU have the best policies on the economy and defence spending which are the key issues for me but they do not have enough votes yet together. Maybe a new election could change that if they can win votes from the naive left and rabid AFD right.

On Immigration the Greens want to increase while the CSU wants to restrict it to 200000 net a year. On Defence the Greens actually want to cut the budget while the FDP and CDU want increases. The Greens want to raise taxes and the CDU and FDP to cut them. The difference in mentality is clear