Finally an Alabama poll - Gingrich leads, kinda

[NightHawkeye]

Thursday, March 8 .. Rasmussen Reports: Election 2012: Alabama GOP Primary - Rasmussen Reports™

Gingrich 30%
Santorum 29%
Romney 28%
Ron Paul 7%

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Wonder where the polls of Kansas, Mississippi and Missouri are ...

 

[Viren]

Two words: DEAD HEAT

 

[Maren]

Actually, according to RealClearPolitics, this is the third Alabama poll this week. What's really interesting, each poll has a different candidate in the lead. It really does look like a dead heat.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Two words: DEAD HEAT

I'm sensing another alliance forming, LOL.

 

[Viren]

I'm sensing another alliance forming, LOL.

Yeah, I think it's time for Newt to swallow his pride and endorse someone.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Yeah, I think it's time for Newt to swallow his pride and endorse someone.

Process of elimination ...

Romney ... not a chance ...
Ron Paul ... not a chance ...
Santorum ... chance ...

Politics is the art of the possible, after all. I wonder if an alliance between Gingrich and Santorum wouldn't combine their delegates. If today's polls are believable, they'll get fully two-thirds of the votes in Mississippi and Alabama.

I have to wonder if we aren't witnessing a complete re-working of the political process. The GOP intentionally opened things up to divide the conservative base. They've done that, but still can't secure the nomination, LOL. Some of the big monied interests behind the "establishment GOP" have also been exposed.

It just keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

 

[NightHawkeye]

Actually, according to RealClearPolitics, this is the third Alabama poll this week. What's really interesting, each poll has a different candidate in the lead. It really does look like a dead heat.

Only one appears to be a legit up-to-date poll - Rasmussen.

The University of Alabama poll is badly dated.

The Alabama teacher's poll is a joke ... no doubt politically inspired.

 

[Viren]

Process of elimination ...

Romney ... not a chance ...
Ron Paul ... not a chance ...
Santorum ... chance ...

Politics is the art of the possible, after all. I wonder if an alliance between Gingrich and Santorum wouldn't combine their delegates. If today's polls are believable, they'll get fully two-thirds of the votes in Mississippi and Alabama.

I have to wonder if we aren't witnessing a complete re-working of the political process. The GOP intentionally opened things up to divide the conservative base. They've done that, but still can't secure the nomination, LOL. Some of the big monied interests behind the "establishment GOP" have also been exposed.

It just keeps getting curiouser and curiouser.

Agree, this is a strange election. I totally think Santorum could win Mississippi and Alabama with Newt behind him. Romney is too much in the Northeastern mold. Santorum is pretty good at speeches too.

Plus, when you look like a lego figure........yeah

 

[Maren]

Only one appears to be a legit up-to-date poll - Rasmussen.

The University of Alabama poll is badly dated.

The Alabama teacher's poll is a joke ... no doubt politically inspired.

Not sure what you are saying about a U. of Alabama poll, it is actually an Alabama State poll conducted March 3-5. I also linked to a Capital Survey Research poll yesterday. And while you may not like the Alabama Education poll, it is apparently good enough for RealClearPolitics to use (which is your previous standard).

 

[keith99]

Not sure what you are saying about a U. of Alabama poll, it is actually an Alabama State poll conducted March 3-5. I also linked to a Capital Survey Research poll yesterday. And while you may not like the Alabama Education poll, it is apparently good enough for RealClearPolitics to use (which is your previous standard).

To him a valid poll is one that agrees with his wishes.

Alabama could prove very interesting. I'm thinking Romney may get far more of the delegates than people are thinking. Alabama has a unique setup:

Alabama Republican Delegation 2012

For both each district and statewide if one candidate gets 50% of the vote he gets everything. If only one candidate gets 20% or more he gets everyting. Otherwise in each district the top vote getter gets 2 and the second place 1 and statewide delegates are proportional to those getting 20% or more.

That could work out very strange when there are 3 very close contenders.

 

[MattRose]

I roughed up a spreadsheet that has education level and religious/non-religious rankings by state. I then applied either caucus results or recent polls (if they hadn't had their caucus yet). It shows that there is a correlation between Romney voters and how much schooling one has and how religious one is. It's by no means spot on, but it's about 70% accurate.

My spreadsheet shows that MS, SD, RI, PA, KS, NM, IL, WV, AR, KY, LA, AL, TX, NC, and IN should not pick Romney and MD, MT, ID, NY, CA, OR, IL, DE, CT, NJ, UT, and NB should pick Romney. Anyone else want to forecast the remaining caucuses? Of course, if any candidate gets way ahead, then most states will just follow the leader and my predictions will be worthless (not that they aren't already).

 

[NightHawkeye]

Not sure what you are saying about a U. of Alabama poll, it is actually an Alabama State poll conducted March 3-5. I also linked to a Capital Survey Research poll yesterday. And while you may not like the Alabama Education poll, it is apparently good enough for RealClearPolitics to use (which is your previous standard).

Hi, Maren.

I said the University of Alabama poll was dated. It's not a difficult concept, Maren, LOL.

Please don't call Real Clear Politics my standard. I believe I've seen you reference it a few times though. I put no stock in their averages, though I give them credit for finding and adding polls in a timely manner ... most of the time. Still, I've found polls a number of times by internet search well before Real Clear Politics lists them. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to clear up any misunderstanding about Real Clear Politics.

The other thing Real Clear Politics is good about is posting the details of some polls which would otherwise be available only to subscription customers.

I stand by my earlier statement. Only one of the Alabama polls is accurate and recent enough to reflect current voting preferences ... preferences which we've seen can swing drastically over just a several day period.

 

[Maren]

Hi, Maren.

I said the University of Alabama poll was dated. It's not a difficult concept, Maren, LOL.

Please don't call Real Clear Politics my standard. I believe I've seen you reference it a few times though. I put no stock in their averages, though I give them credit for finding and adding polls in a timely manner ... most of the time. Still, I've found polls a number of times by internet search well before Real Clear Politics lists them. Thanks for giving me the opportunity to clear up any misunderstanding about Real Clear Politics.

The other thing Real Clear Politics is good about is posting the details of some polls which would otherwise be available only to subscription customers.

I stand by my earlier statement. Only one of the Alabama polls is accurate and recent enough to reflect current voting preferences ... preferences which we've seen can swing drastically over just a several day period.

So what makes those other polls inaccurate?

 

[NightHawkeye]

To him a valid poll is one that agrees with his wishes.

Not at all.

Truth is just what it is. Up-to-date polls are easy to identify. Just look at when they were conducted.

Accuracy is usually only a little more difficult ... in this thread, reasons were given why some of these polls needed to be discounted ... or were entirely a joke. NOTE: The polls being touted by the mainstream media are most often politically driven, so caution is always advised, as evidenced by this telling CNN commentary: 'We did it again': Santorum wins Alabama, Mississippi - CNN.com

The wins are somewhat of a surprise, because polls released Monday showed Santorum running 8 to 10 points behind Romney and Gingrich in the two states.
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No, CNN, the wins weren't a surprise. None of the recent decent polls showed Santorum at such a disadvantage.

Alabama could prove very interesting. I'm thinking Romney may get far more of the delegates than people are thinking. Alabama has a unique setup:

Alabama Republican Delegation 2012

For both each district and statewide if one candidate gets 50% of the vote he gets everything. If only one candidate gets 20% or more he gets everyting. Otherwise in each district the top vote getter gets 2 and the second place 1 and statewide delegates are proportional to those getting 20% or more.

That could work out very strange when there are 3 very close contenders.

Here's the way one website figues the delegate count: The Green Papers: United States Presidential Election 2012

Alabama
Santorum 16
Gingrich 13
Romney 10
TBD 9

Mississippi
Santorum 13
Gingrich 12
Romney 12
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The Associated Press is a little more generous with their delegate allocation to Santorum already ... guess GreenPapers is just a little conservative.

Also, the overall delegate tally according to Green Papers is

Soft delegate count: Romney 473, Santorum 228, Gingrich 157, Paul 75, Uncommitted 5. Needed to nominate 1,144.

Hard delegate count: Romney 374, Uncommitted 250, Santorum 160, Gingrich 133, Paul 23, Huntsman 2. Needed to nominate 1,144.

​

The Associated Press is much more generous in their delegate allocation to Santorum, however: Tight races in Alabama, Mississippi mean delegate split for Santorum, Gingrich, Romney - 3/13/2012 11:06:18 PM | Newser

Romney: 476
Santorum: 246
Gingrich: 131
Paul: 47
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Any way delegates are counted, the Republican race sure looks like a contest to me ...