Discussion of the Sweden model

[tall73]

 

[tall73]

Swedish antibody study shows long road to immunity as COVID-19 toll mounts

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - A Swedish study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholmers developed COVID-19 antibodies by late April, which could fuel concern that a decision not to lock down Sweden against the pandemic may bring little herd immunity in the near future.

The number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care in Sweden has fallen by a third from the peak in late April and health authorities say the outbreak is slowing. However, Sweden has recorded the highest number of COVID-19 deaths per capita in Europe over the last seven days.

While Health Agency officials have stressed herd immunity is not a goal in itself, it has also said the strategy is only to slow the virus enough for health services to cope, not suppress it altogether.

 

[(° ͡ ͜ ͡ʖ ͡ °) (ᵔᴥᵔʋ)]

Can You Beat COVID-19 Without a Lockdown? Sweden Is Trying

To start with, it’s a myth that Sweden is doing nothing about the virus. Most Swedes have changed their habits a lot. Schools for older kids are closed, as are universities. People are working from home, when they can, and the elderly are being urged to keep to themselves. Gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited, and ski resorts are closed. Restaurants and bars are allowing table service only, and grocery stores are installing glass dividers between customers and cashiers. People who go to Stockholm may be stunned to see bars and cafés with customers, but they’re seeing only the Swedes who choose to run higher risks. They’re not seeing all the Swedes who are staying home.

Second, contrary to the claims of John Fund and Joel Hay and many others, Sweden isn’t trying to develop “herd immunity,” meaning a state of affairs in which so many people get the virus that the virus runs out of kindling. (At least, Swedish officials claim they aren’t doing this, and they would have a lot to lose by lying about it.) Instead, Sweden intends to take as loose an approach as possible that still keeps case growth down to nonexponential numbers. “We are not in the containment phase,” said Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, last month. “We are in the mitigation phase.”

What Tegnell means is that the coronavirus is all over the world now, and, without a vaccine or a massive outbreak that brings about herd immunity, you won’t get rid of it. Even if you do what China did and lock down so hard that you eradicate the virus within your borders, it will return as soon as you allow any travel in and out of your country to resume. So Sweden has based its policies on two premises: (1) The coronavirus can only be managed, not suppressed. Short of going full Wuhan on the entire planet, we’ll have to live with it. (2) People won’t tolerate severe lockdown for more than a month or two, since boredom, isolation, and economic desperation will get overwhelming. With these premises in mind, Sweden has pumped the brakes instead of slamming on them.


For comparison, here is the deaths per million population for Sweden and some other nations in the general region.


Belgium 419
Spain 413
Italy 367
France 275
UK 202
Netherlands 193
Switzerland 148
Sweden 132
Ireland 98
Portugal 62
Denmark 55
Germany 48
Norway 28

There is quite a range in the various nations listed. It seems there are various factors at play, from testing, population density, timing of the arrival of the virus, to of course lockdown measures, and timing of starting the lockdown.

However, if slowing to flatten the curve is the goal, are the economy crippling measures other nations are employing helping enough compared to the results Sweden has obtained? The article notes their health system has been strained, but not overwhelmed.

I think this is an interesting statistic. However, I am actually more interested in the number of deaths as a result of the growing poverty and homelessness due to the shutdowns.

 

[(° ͡ ͜ ͡ʖ ͡ °) (ᵔᴥᵔʋ)]

nahhh trump realized that might hurt his re-election campaign so he's said in a very loose wy that he thinks it's wrong for them to open too soon, but will let them decide heh. I think las vegas is the more dangerous one, that mayor is worse then trump when it comes to callousness of human life.

Is it callous for people to want to work so they can feed their families?

 

[Speedwell]

Is it callous for people to want to work so they can feed their families?

Is it callous to run a country in such a way that people can become homeless and starve to death just because they've been laid off from work?

 

[charsan]

Is it callous for people to want to work so they can feed their families?

It seems to many it is, they think not of the real toll of the shutdown just how they can be safe. They don't think about mental health, suicides, people that need life sustaining procedures and can not get them, how parents will provide for their children. They think people are evil who disagrees with them and want the country to open, they think it's all about money but it's not. They ultimately do not care about others and only think in binary instead of understand that the country can reopen and still be safe at the same time. It is useless trying to get through to them because they are myopic and they are either not able are unwilling to look at things any other way.

 

[Occams Barber]

I think this is an interesting statistic. However, I am actually more interested in the number of deaths as a result of the growing poverty and homelessness due to the shutdowns.

Then you're obviously on the wrong thread since this thread is about the Swedish approach.

You might also be interested in Sweden's progress to date. When this thread started on 17 April, Sweden's Covid 19 deaths per million were 132.

As of today that figure has grown to 380 per million - the eighth highest death rate in the world.

OB

 

[(° ͡ ͜ ͡ʖ ͡ °) (ᵔᴥᵔʋ)]

Then you're obviously on the wrong thread since this thread is about the Swedish approach.

You might also be interested in Sweden's progress to date. When this thread started on 17 April, Sweden's Covid 19 deaths per million were 132.

As of today that figure has grown to 380 per million - the eighth highest death rate in the world.

OB

So what does that say about the seven other countries with worse death rates and are shut down?

 

[rambot]

It seems to many it is, they think not of the real toll of the shutdown just how they can be safe. They don't think about mental health, suicides, people that need life sustaining procedures and can not get them, how parents will provide for their children. They think people are evil who disagrees with them and want the country to open, they think it's all about money but it's not. They ultimately do not care about others and only think in binary instead of understand that the country can reopen and still be safe at the same time. It is useless trying to get through to them because they are myopic and they are either not able are unwilling to look at things any other way.

I'd it can be safe and reopen at the same time, in your esteemed opinion.

Why is it that people who study epidemics disagree with your assertion?

 

[tall73]

So what does that say about the seven other countries with worse death rates and are shut down?

We have been trying to evaluate the weight of the various factors. More than likely it is due to wide community spread prior to them realizing it, which resulted in many being infected before much of any distancing was done.

My guess is also that distancing in general helps slow the spread, whether official lockdown takes place or not. After that other local factors may play a role.

Those that tested widely early seem to fair a bit better due to knowing where to concentrate efforts, such as Germany.

And some combine testing with cooperative citizens and enough lead time to have a chance to eliminate the virus in the area. But most nations are past containment and into slowing.

 

[Occams Barber]

So what does that say about the seven other countries with worse death rates and are shut down?

Andorra and San Marino have tiny populations (77,000 and 34,000 respectively). As a result their death rate is magnified when converted to deaths per million. Andorra is on the Spanish/French border so was influenced by the poor Spanish/French reaction to Covid 19. San Marino is actually within north central Italy so it shared Italy's problems.

Belgium's figures are considered to be inflated as a result of brutal honesty or overstated from an overly broad definition of death by virus. - take your pick. The Belgians are also one of the higher users of aged care homes.

The rest, Spain, France, Italy and UK all prove that not all lockdowns are equal. All were slow to react, were still allowing large gatherings well into March, and were slow to implement lockdown. There is a view that Spanish cultural practices worked against social distancing and that smoking and age profile may have been a factor in Italy's death rate. Lack of testing facilities was a factor common to all four countries.

The common, main factor appears to be late and/or half-hearted implementation of lockdown and social distancing.

OB

 

[KCfromNC]

It seems to many it is, they think not of the real toll of the shutdown just how they can be safe. They don't think about mental health, suicides, people that need life sustaining procedures and can not get them, how parents will provide for their children.

This is false.

The "reopen everything now" crowd might have a bit more credibility if "mistakes" like this weren't so common.

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

They don't think about mental health, suicides, people that need life sustaining procedures and can not get them, how parents will provide for their children.

Imagine if the richest country in the world had A working social care system.

 

[Radagast]

If this is accurate it could also explain some of the disparity in outcomes by geographic distribution.

Yet another sign that we badly need antibody tests that will tell us what fraction of the population has had and recovered from COVID-19.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Yet another sign that we badly need antibody tests that will tell us what fraction of the population has had and recovered from COVID-19.

Unfortunately Trump does not appear to be testing friendly. He appears to be using the ostrich defense. If he does not see bad news it can't hurt him. Though all states are beginning to reopen some are doing so faster than others. My state is fairly liberal and is taking a slower route, even though our statistics are far better than some of the states that are reopening much faster, those all tend to be more conservative states. I think that the upcoming election is causing some of the Republicans to panic. The problem is that if they fail by reopening too early the consequences are going to be very dire for them both in lives lost and politically.

 

[Radagast]

Unfortunately Trump does not appear to be testing friendly.

I don't think he's expressed an opinion on antibody tests.

 

[hedrick]

There's a lot of difference between countries (and US states) that does not seem to be explained by differences in government policy. Age distribution, crowding, use of congregate living facilities, cultural attitudes towards masks, travel from other countries, maybe even immunization policies. That means you can't compare results in different countries and attribute it to government policy.

 

[Radagast]

There's a lot of difference between countries (and US states) that does not seem to be explained by differences in government policy. Age distribution, crowding, use of congregate living facilities, cultural attitudes towards masks, travel from other countries, maybe even immunization policies. That means you can't compare results in different countries and attribute it to government policy.

There's also the fact that data quality is generally poor (under-testing, misclassification of cases, etc.) and that data quality varies between countries.

That means that any statistical attempt to explain differences between countries fails quickly.

Within the US, deaths are concentrated in the northeast. I don't think anybody knows why.

 

[(° ͡ ͜ ͡ʖ ͡ °) (ᵔᴥᵔʋ)]

We have been trying to evaluate the weight of the various factors. More than likely it is due to wide community spread prior to them realizing it, which resulted in many being infected before much of any distancing was done.

My guess is also that distancing in general helps slow the spread, whether official lockdown takes place or not. After that other local factors may play a role.

Those that tested widely early seem to fair a bit better due to knowing where to concentrate efforts, such as Germany.

And some combine testing with cooperative citizens and enough lead time to have a chance to eliminate the virus in the area. But most nations are past containment and into slowing.

I see your point. However, Sweden did none of the things you mentioned. At least not to the extent of many others. And guess what? None of the things happened that scientists were fearing! Frankly, what the swedish model is showing me is that all the scientists and their models were wrong and the solution to flattening the curve was more damaging than the virus itself.

 

[rambot]

Is it callous for people to want to work so they can feed their families?

Is it callous to want to keep people healthy?