Discussion of the Sweden model

[gentlejah]

cant stop laughing

 

[tall73]

Belgium 597
Spain 490
Italy 436
France 346
UK 299
Netherlands 257
Sweden 217
Ireland 215
Switzerland 185
USA 164
Denmark 72
Germany 70
Canada 65
Austria 60
Norway 37
Finland 34
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

Belgium 633
Spain 510
Italy 453
France 362
UK 319
Netherlands 266
Ireland 235
Sweden 233
Switzerland 196
USA 179
Portugal 93
Canada 76
Germany 75
Denmark 75
Austria 63
Norway 38
Finland 36
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

 

[tall73]

We may start to see some differing comparisons soon, with Denmark and Norway opening up lightly, and Finland continuing their restrictions.

Sweden says its coronavirus approach has worked. The numbers suggest a different story - CNN

Denmark and Norway are now beginning to ease their lockdowns, with children returning to school in the past 10 days, in smaller classes with markers to help keep them two meters apart. Salons and other businesses with one-to-one contact will reopen in Norway from Monday. Finland has extended its restrictions until May 13.

He said that he believed that stricter lockdowns "only serve to flatten the curve and flattening the curve doesn't mean that cases disappear -- they are just moved in time."
"And as long as the healthcare system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it's not clear that having the cases later in time is better."

Albert believes that Sweden's healthcare system is coping, as does Peter Lindgren, managing director at the Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE). Lindgren told CNN that the number of people treated in intensive care units over several weeks had been stable, "so in that aspect it has to be successful."Hallengren, the Swedish health minister, told CNN: "One of the main concerns now in Sweden is to strengthen the protection for those living in care homes for older people."

He told the BBC that the relatively relaxed approach had "worked in some aspects," since there had always been at least 20% of intensive care beds empty and able to take care of Covid-19 patients."We believe we passed the peak of the transmission a week ago," he added.

Asked whether the death toll would have been lower if Sweden had followed the same path as other European countries in introducing strict restrictions, Tegnell replied: "That's a very difficult question to answer at this stage. At least 50% of our death toll is within the elderly homes and we have a hard time understanding how a lockdown would stop the introduction of the disease into the elderly homes."

 

[tall73]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/29/who-lauds-sweden-as-model-for-resisting-coronavirus-lockdown/

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert, said Wednesday there are “lessons to be learned” from the Scandinavian nation, which has largely relied on citizens to self-regulate.


“I think there’s a perception out that Sweden has not put in control measures and just has allowed the disease to spread,” Ryan told reporters. “Nothing can be further from the truth.”

“What it has done differently is it has very much relied on its relationship with its citizenry and the ability and willingness of its citizens to implement self-distancing and self-regulate,” Ryan said. “In that sense, they have implemented public policy through that partnership with the population.”

“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,” Ryan said.

 

[tall73]

Belgium 633
Spain 510
Italy 453
France 362
UK 319
Netherlands 266
Ireland 235
Sweden 233
Switzerland 196
USA 179
Portugal 93
Canada 76
Germany 75
Denmark 75
Austria 63
Norway 38
Finland 36
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

New Numbers

Belgium 670
Spain 537
Italy 475
UK 414
France 379
Netherlands 291
Sweden 264
Ireland 260
USA 204
Switzerland 204
Portugal 100
Canada 94
Denmark 82
Germany 81
Austria 66
Finland 40
Norway 39
Australia 4
New Zealand 4

 

[Occams Barber]

New Numbers

Belgium 670
Spain 537
Italy 475
UK 414
France 379
Netherlands 291
Sweden 264
Ireland 260
USA 204
Switzerland 204
Portugal 100
Canada 94
Denmark 82
Germany 81
Austria 66
Finland 40
Norway 39
Australia 4
New Zealand 4

Since this thread started on 17/4 (my time/date), Sweden's deaths-per-million has exactly doubled from 132 to 264. It's the 10th highest death rate in the world.

It leaves me wondering at what point the death rate becomes unacceptable to Swedish society.

OB

 

[tall73]

Since this thread started on 17/4 (my time/date), Sweden's deaths-per-million has exactly doubled from 132 to 264. It's the 10th highest death rate in the world.

It leaves me wondering at what point the death rate becomes unacceptable to Swedish society.

OB

I was also looking at some of the data from the first day of the thread compared to today. There are several that have really jumped. Ireland, and the UK also more than doubled.

 

[Occams Barber]

I was also looking at some of the data from the first day of the thread compared to today. There are several that have really jumped. Ireland, and the UK also more than doubled.


View attachment 275993

You're right. They've all jumped but Ireland and the UK are looking very dangerous.

I've been staring at the list trying to imagine what factors (apart from lockdown practices) might be influencing the variability in the results. All the listed countries are developed Western European so should have comparable economies and medical infrastructure/expertise. I thought population median age might be a factor but after a (very) cursory look it doesn't seem to be significant. Mainland versus non-mainland Europe looked a bit promising but UK, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Portugal don't seem to fit. Levels of tourism sort of looks like a vague possibility although I'm not sure how to measure it usefully.

Maybe it just comes down to cultural factors combined with lockdown rules/timing and varying levels of adherence.

This pandemic will keep statisticians and social scientists in work for decades.

OB

 

[tall73]

You're right. They've all jumped but Ireland and the UK are looking very dangerous.

I've been staring at the list trying to imagine what factors (apart from lockdown practices) might be influencing the variability in the results. All the listed countries are developed Western European so should have comparable economies and medical infrastructure/expertise. I thought population median age might be a factor but after a (very) cursory look it doesn't seem to be significant. Mainland versus non-mainland Europe looked a bit promising but UK, Germany, Belgium, Sweden and Portugal don't seem to fit. Levels of tourism sort of looks like a vague possibility although I'm not sure how to measure it usefully.

Maybe it just comes down to cultural factors combined with lockdown rules/timing and varying levels of adherence.

This pandemic will keep statisticians and social scientists in work for decades.

OB

I agree, I cannot put my finger on it at all. In fact, many of the areas that are doing well are islands, in the case of South Korea, a peninsula with a very secure northern border, so they don't have cases flowing in from land travel. So the UK and Ireland being the exact opposite is a little strange.

The UK was later than some, going into lockdown on the 24th after considering the Sweden strategy.

Ireland waited until March 27 to lock down. They closed many businesses on the 24th. The Irish lockdown had an unusual parameter compared to those in the USA anyway, in that it limited travel only to get food and such, which is normal, but limited travel for those items to a 2km range from the home.

 

[essentialsaltes]

But at least the Swedish econ... er

 

[hedrick]

The Swedish claim isn’t that Covid had no effect, but that they didn’t need rules to get people to distance. Indeed the cell phone data suggests that most of the distancing in NJ was already happening by the time the final order was put in place. The economic effects occur when people stop buying and coming to work, whether ordered by the government or not.

 

[hedrick]

The Irish lockdown had an unusual parameter compared to those in the USA anyway, in that it limited travel only to get food and such, which is normal, but limited travel for those items to a 2km range from the home.

Are the Leprecauns making deliveries? I'm in a fairly densely populated part of NJ, and the nearest store I'm aware of it 2.6 mi away. I'm sure in the Northwest and the Pine Barrens the distances are a lot longer.

 

[Occams Barber]

Are the Leprecauns making deliveries? I'm in a fairly densely populated part of NJ, and the nearest store I'm aware of it 2.6 mi away. I'm sure in the Northwest and the Pine Barrens the distances are a lot longer.

Just found a copy of the Irish Examiner talking about the 2 km limit.
Covid-19: 2km travel limit does NOT apply to food shopping

There is a 2 km travel limit but it doesn't apply to food shopping. Sounds like there was a bit of confusion when the rule was initially announced.
OB

 

[tall73]

Just found a copy of the Irish Examiner talking about the 2 km limit.
Covid-19: 2km travel limit does NOT apply to food shopping

There is a 2 km travel limit but it doesn't apply to food shopping. Sounds like there was a bit of confusion when the rule was initially announced.
OB

That makes more sense, thank you.

 

[tall73]

Found one of my posts with data a day earlier in another thread, and with some other countries included.

The US joins the UK, Ireland, and Sweden in more than doubling. Canada started small but quadrupled.

Some of it must be different timetables. but what determines success after that, once there is community spread, I do not know.

Comparing Canada to Norway is interesting. They were slightly worse off than Canada on April 15, but now are considerably better.

 

[tall73]

Dominant SARS-CoV-2 strain A2a binds more easily to ACE2 receptors

In Italy, 80 percent of the samples contain A2a strains, say reports. There is a predominance of this train in other nations such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain, Iceland, Congo, and Brazil.

A2a strain originating from the O strain is more efficient in infecting humans. He said, “Such mutant viruses increase the frequency (of transmission) and sometimes completely replace the original type of the virus.

In the A2a, the spike protein is altered so that it can bind more easily to the ACE2 receptors and thus allows it easier access to the lung cells

If this is accurate it could also explain some of the disparity in outcomes by geographic distribution.

 

[tall73]

Covid-19 in Sweden - charts and statistics

 

[Tanj]

Dominant SARS-CoV-2 strain A2a binds more easily to ACE2 receptors

In Italy, 80 percent of the samples contain A2a strains, say reports. There is a predominance of this train in other nations such as the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain, Iceland, Congo, and Brazil.

A2a strain originating from the O strain is more efficient in infecting humans. He said, “Such mutant viruses increase the frequency (of transmission) and sometimes completely replace the original type of the virus.

In the A2a, the spike protein is altered so that it can bind more easily to the ACE2 receptors and thus allows it easier access to the lung cells

If this is accurate it could also explain some of the disparity in outcomes by geographic distribution.

None of those conclusions are supported by any of the evidence. The worst is the last one, there's no way to tell just from sequence data what the binding efficiency of a protein is. Also, the Indian Journal of Medical Virology...yeah, no. I was briefly an editor for that journal back in the day. Just no.

 

[tall73]

None of those conclusions are supported by any of the evidence. The worst is the last one, there's no way to tell just from sequence data what the binding efficiency of a protein is. Also, the Indian Journal of Medical Virology...yeah, no. I was briefly an editor for that journal back in the day. Just no.

Yeah, I started a separate thread on the subject. And I posted some of the response there which indicated they did not have experimental data, but inference.

 

[tall73]

None of those conclusions are supported by any of the evidence. The worst is the last one, there's no way to tell just from sequence data what the binding efficiency of a protein is. Also, the Indian Journal of Medical Virology...yeah, no. I was briefly an editor for that journal back in the day. Just no.

To clarify the one from that journal is not actually published yet, but the other from the Los Alamos one was published. Still no actual experimentation. But that is the one most are responding to because it is already published.