Discussion of the Sweden model

[trunks2k]

I think las vegas is the more dangerous one, that mayor is worse then trump when it comes to callousness of human life.

I briefly read that she's getting reigned in by the casinos - who, while they are not happy about having to be closed, don't want to be cavalier about opening either. Like Disney, they realize that it's way worse for them to open and become a major disease hot spot, than to remain closed until things are more under control.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Most are creeping up. Sweden is soaring.

Yeah, their gamble really is paying of. A bit of a shame about the furniture, though.

You mean the furniture that falls apart after a few months?

 

[Nithavela]

You mean the furniture that falls apart after a few months?

My home is full of IKEA furniture that is very stable. Maybe you made a mistake during building.. or they send the bad stuff into the USA.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

My home is full of IKEA furniture that is very stable. Maybe you made a mistake during building.. or they send the bad stuff into the USA.

It is stable if you don't move it around. Being made of wood chips and glue it doesn't hold fasteners very well.

 

[loveofourlord]

I briefly read that she's getting reigned in by the casinos - who, while they are not happy about having to be closed, don't want to be cavalier about opening either. Like Disney, they realize that it's way worse for them to open and become a major disease hot spot, than to remain closed until things are more under control.

now if only we can get gamestrop to do so, they are firing people that don't work, and being way too cavalier about it all.

 

[sfs]

gamestrop

That's where you go to sharpen your gaming skills, right?

 

[loveofourlord]

That's where you go to sharpen your gaming skills, right?

well mostly just buy and sell stuff there, but they are on verge of bankruptcy and are so desperate they were telling employee's to tell the cops they were esential and wouldn't be shutting down, when the cops showed up to close them.

 

[sfs]

well mostly just buy and sell stuff there, but they are on verge of bankruptcy and are so desperate they were telling employee's to tell the cops they were esential and wouldn't be shutting down, when the cops showed up to close them.

I was joking about your typo.

 

[KarateCowboy]

The latest figures for all Scandinavian countries plus Finland leave Sweden looking very sick by comparison.

The deathrate per million of population for each country is:

Finland...……….15
Norway...……….30
Denmark………..58
Sweden..……….139 (up from 132 yesterday)​

OB

All the people supporting fascist tactics keep pointing this out, failing to notice that Michigan, which has a similar population to Sweden, is under draconian measures under their governess, had more deaths and a higher outbreak.

 

[High Fidelity]

The big difference is a respect for the government. If the government asks them to do something, for the most part they will and they will take it seriously, not get defensive and start complaining about rights being attacked, persecution or whatever other nonsense for the sake of a few months of inconvenience to help reduce deaths.

 

[KCfromNC]

All the people supporting fascist tactics keep pointing this out, failing to notice that Michigan, which has a similar population to Sweden, is under draconian measures under their governess, had more deaths and a higher outbreak.

"facist"? "draconian"? "governess"?

It is almost as if this post is begging to not be taken seriously.

 

[Hazelelponi]

now if only we can get gamestrop to do so, they are firing people that don't work, and being way too cavalier about it all.

It's a decision of economics. If they can't pay them for not working, being fired entitles the, now former, employee to receive unemployment.

And if shutting ones doors for an unspecified period of time will cause a business to have to permanently shut their doors, they are going to stay open regardless of cost... at least when they end up losing all hope of keeping their business together they will have someone to sue for their pain and suffering due to government overreach.

 

[Halbhh]

Can You Beat COVID-19 Without a Lockdown? Sweden Is Trying

To start with, it’s a myth that Sweden is doing nothing about the virus. Most Swedes have changed their habits a lot. Schools for older kids are closed, as are universities. People are working from home, when they can, and the elderly are being urged to keep to themselves. Gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited, and ski resorts are closed. Restaurants and bars are allowing table service only, and grocery stores are installing glass dividers between customers and cashiers. People who go to Stockholm may be stunned to see bars and cafés with customers, but they’re seeing only the Swedes who choose to run higher risks. They’re not seeing all the Swedes who are staying home.

Second, contrary to the claims of John Fund and Joel Hay and many others, Sweden isn’t trying to develop “herd immunity,” meaning a state of affairs in which so many people get the virus that the virus runs out of kindling. (At least, Swedish officials claim they aren’t doing this, and they would have a lot to lose by lying about it.) Instead, Sweden intends to take as loose an approach as possible that still keeps case growth down to nonexponential numbers. “We are not in the containment phase,” said Sweden’s chief state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, last month. “We are in the mitigation phase.”

What Tegnell means is that the coronavirus is all over the world now, and, without a vaccine or a massive outbreak that brings about herd immunity, you won’t get rid of it. Even if you do what China did and lock down so hard that you eradicate the virus within your borders, it will return as soon as you allow any travel in and out of your country to resume. So Sweden has based its policies on two premises: (1) The coronavirus can only be managed, not suppressed. Short of going full Wuhan on the entire planet, we’ll have to live with it. (2) People won’t tolerate severe lockdown for more than a month or two, since boredom, isolation, and economic desperation will get overwhelming. With these premises in mind, Sweden has pumped the brakes instead of slamming on them.


For comparison, here is the deaths per million population for Sweden and some other nations in the general region.


Belgium 419
Spain 413
Italy 367
France 275
UK 202
Netherlands 193
Switzerland 148
Sweden 132
Ireland 98
Portugal 62
Denmark 55
Germany 48
Norway 28

There is quite a range in the various nations listed. It seems there are various factors at play, from testing, population density, timing of the arrival of the virus, to of course lockdown measures, and timing of starting the lockdown.

However, if slowing to flatten the curve is the goal, are the economy crippling measures other nations are employing helping enough compared to the results Sweden has obtained? The article notes their health system has been strained, but not overwhelmed.

Sweden had a big jump in daily deaths on the 21rst and 22nd, so that the rate per populace jumped from that "132" to up quickly to 192 as of yesterday at least, and it will climb more.

..actually, it's now 200 (per million, or 2,021 deaths) at this moment, but I don't know that today's number is complete yet.

They are of course getting significant spread from that portion of the population that does go out and get close to others, even if it's only a small part of the the populations, that's plenty enough to spread the virus rapidly.

 

[Halbhh]

The IMHE projection is really frightening for Sweden -- projecting right now they would need (middle, most likely updated estimate!) 2273 ICU beds but only have an initial ICU beds to begin with of 218. Look at that ratio.

Ten times.

But it was an accomplishment that New York state managed to double their ICU beds.

New York state has just today announced a to-date preliminary rough death rate of 0.5% -- based on finding the actual infection rate in the state as a whole is going to be close to about 14% from their testing of 3,000 people around the state to determine overall state infections to date. (Note that this preliminary death rate of 0.5% will go up some, because for instance some of the counting of corona deaths, such as at home deaths, hasn't yet been done).

So, as some of us (well I know I did) had said weeks or a month or more ago here on CF things like 'if you can treat all of the people instead of having your hospitals overwhelmed, you can get a death rate down to something between 0.4%-0.7%' (rough paraphrase or conglomeration of the kind of posts I made a few times back in March).

But New York managed to treat everyone without having a real overwhelm of hospitals like Italy.

If the hospitals get overwhelmed by too many cases at once then the death rate goes up sharply as it did in Wuhan and in northern Italy.

New York stay at home slowed the rate, and the hospitals haven't been overwhelmed to have patients dying in the hallways or at home to the extent of Italy (not nearly so much).

But, will Sweden manage to be able to treat so many cases at once they are lining up to have?

Well, they need an all-out push, at this point, but that would take better awareness.

I wish the Swedish experiment was working out better! Maybe if they had made restaurants separate tables and limit indoor seating, and suggest to everyone explicitly to do more pickup and delivery, and if they had strongly recommended everyone to wear masks and such, sorta like we are doing now in New York state.

Can You Beat COVID-19 Without a Lockdown? Sweden Is Trying

 

[Halbhh]

It's a decision of economics. If they can't pay them for not working, being fired entitles the, now former, employee to receive unemployment.

And if shutting ones doors for an unspecified period of time will cause a business to have to permanently shut their doors, they are going to stay open regardless of cost... at least when they end up losing all hope of keeping their business together they will have someone to sue for their pain and suffering due to government overreach.

This depends on whether or not the bill Congress is passing right now works as it is meant to work. I know at least one local place that I personally know people at first hand where they have gotten that federal small business forgivable loan that pays worker salaries and rents. They will not be closing it looks like. Or if they do, it will be instead for a different reason than being able to pay rent and payroll this month and next....

But, still, we cannot really predict 5 months from now that easily, because of how people and government will continue to do new actions we cannot foresee right now. We could only say what would have happened if everything got frozen as it was a week ago, without ever changing. But change is constant. Therefore it's not easy to predict the future at all. We can only try to predict what would probably happen if we stopped doing anything new.

 

[tall73]

So, as some of us (well I know I did) had said weeks or a month or more ago here on CF things like 'if you can treat all of the people instead of having your hospitals overwhelmed, you can get a death rate down to something between 0.4%-0.7%' (rough paraphrase or conglomeration of the kind of posts I made a few times back in March).

The Surge--Why slowing measures are important right now

Yes, here is a thread from March 12 calling for slowing the spread to avoid a surge.

I too wish that their experiment went differently.

 

[mala]

I was joking about your typo.

most people probably aren't aware what a strop is.

 

[mala]

"facist"? "draconian"? "governess"?

It is almost as if this post is begging to not be taken seriously.

he's posted these kinds of things for years.

 

[Occams Barber]

Yeah, but what are your dropbear attack fatality rates compared to the US?

Don't joke about the Drop Bears - things are getting serious.

The international tourist trade was shut down by the Virus. Tourists are a Drop Bear's natural prey and preferred food source. As a result Drop Bears are now regarded as a threatened species. The only thing saving them from total extinction is a few leftover New Zealanders.

OB

 

[sfs]

As a result Drop Bears are now regarded as a threatened species. The only thing saving them from total extinction is a few leftover New Zealanders.

And they tend to be kind of lean and stringy.