Discussion of the Sweden model

[hedrick]

As of a couple of days ago, Swedish planners thought cases had plateaued. If that was right, they’re in reasonable shape. If not, they’re in for trouble. You can’t base decisions on a couple of days data, but it doesn’t look good for them.

Here is their reasoning: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks Sounds good if they’re right about what is going to happen. Unfortunately there’s a good chance they are not.

I also find something odd in their reasoning. They seem to think they're going to reach herd immunity without having lots of people get ill from the disease. They think 20% of their population is immune. NY just tested people. About 20% of NYC has had the disease and recovered. But it took them 10,000 deaths. Unless the virus is a lot less lethal in Sweden than in NYC, you've got to wonder about that estimate. They also think they're going to get to 60% within a few weeks, while also thinking the number of cases is leveling off. I don't know of any way that immunity can spread other than people getting sick and recovering.

 

[Occams Barber]

As of a couple of days ago, Swedish planners thought cases had plateaued. If that was right, they’re in reasonable shape. If not, they’re in for trouble. You can’t base decisions on a couple of days data, but it doesn’t look good for them.

Here is their reasoning: Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks Sounds good if they’re right about what is going to happen. Unfortunately there’s a good chance they are not.

I also find something odd in their reasoning. They seem to think they're going to reach herd immunity without having lots of people get ill from the disease. They think 20% of their population is immune. NY just tested people. About 20% of NYC has had the disease and recovered. But it took them 10,000 deaths. Unless the virus is a lot less lethal in Sweden than in NYC, you've got to wonder about that estimate. They also think they're going to get to 60% within a few weeks, while also thinking the number of cases is leveling off. I don't know of any way that immunity can spread other than people getting sick and recovering.

There's an interesting reverse side to the problem.

NZ and Australia applied strict lockdown and border quarantine rules. As a result they may have come close to eliminating virus transfer within the country ('close to' eliminating transfer means reducing the transmission rate to zero or less than 1). It is however unlikely that they are close to achieving herd immunity. The strategy will be a phased reduction in restrictions, starting in a few weeks, with very tight tracking, tracing and quarantine if new infections are detected.

The problem is that, without herd immunity, they are still susceptible to a breakout. While this can probably be controlled internally, there is a huge risk to opening borders to international travel. Our external borders (I'm an Australian) may have to remain tightly controlled until a vaccine is available or we have the means to successfully treat serious Covid 19 cases so that we can allow herd immunity to develop naturally with minimum risk.

The point is, that even with the current level of success, there are still problems and there is still a risk that things could go backward.

We (the world) may not be able to identify the "best" strategy until this is all over.
OB

 

[pitabread]

We (the world) may not be able to identify the "best" strategy until this is all over.

Hindsight will be 2020.

 

[KCfromNC]

Don't joke about the Drop Bears - things are getting serious.

The international tourist trade was shut down by the Virus. Tourists are a Drop Bear's natural prey and preferred food source. As a result Drop Bears are now regarded as a threatened species. The only thing saving them from total extinction is a few leftover New Zealanders.

OB

/sadface

 

[KCfromNC]

And they tend to be kind of lean and stringy.

The dropbears? Why would anyone eat one of those?

 

[tall73]

Belgium 540
Spain 464
Italy 415
France 327
UK 267
Netherlands 237
Sweden 192
Switzerland 174
Ireland 156
USA 144
Portugal 77
Denmark 66
Germany 63
Austria 57
Canada 52
Norway 34
Finland 27

Updated numbers:

Belgium 576
Spain 482
Italy 430
France 341
UK 287
Netherlands 250
Sweden 213
Ireland 205
Switzerland 184
USA 157
Portugal 84
Denmark 70
Germany 69
Canada 61
Austria 59
Norway 37
Finland 32
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

 

[tall73]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

But on Friday, Interior Minister Mikael Damberg urged Swedes not to let down their guard.

While most people in Stockholm are acting responsibly, Damberg said “in some places and in some situations, the recommendations aren’t being followed.” Speaking to reporters in the capital, he said, “This is a critical situation and it’s time to follow the guidelines and take responsibility.”

“In the past week, we have received reports that people in Stockholm are starting to relax and enjoy the weather, and I want to be very clear that the restrictions in place are not just general advice,” Stockholm mayor Anna Konig Jerlemyr said at the press conference. “This is a warning to all restaurants that are not taking responsibility -- you will be closed down unless you follow restrictions.”

 

[tall73]

Sweden Health Chief Admits ‘It’s Not Over’ As Coronavirus Cases Leap

Sweden’s state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has announced a record daily high of coronavirus cases for the second consecutive day. 812 positive COVID-19 tests were reported during the prior 24 hours, taking the overall total to 17,567. Tegnell had previously insisted on several occasions that the spread of the virus was slowing.


The country has come under fire from scientists in Sweden and around the world for its relatively relaxed approach to tackling the virus compared to other European countries.

 

[Occams Barber]

Updated numbers:

Belgium 576
Spain 482
Italy 430
France 341
UK 287
Netherlands 250
Sweden 213
Ireland 205
Switzerland 184
USA 157
Portugal 84
Denmark 70
Germany 69
Canada 61
Austria 59
Norway 37
Finland 32
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

I just noticed Belgium. While much of the media focus has been on Italy and Spain, Belgium's numbers appear to be quietly going through the roof.

I wonder what they're doing wrong?

OB

 

[tall73]

I just noticed Belgium. While much of the media focus has been on Italy and Spain, Belgium's numbers appear to be quietly going through the roof.

I wonder what they're doing wrong?

They were at the top for a long time.

I thought it was due to early community spread, but looking at the history of it I am not sure that is the case.

 

[hedrick]

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

They claim it’s because they are counting every suspected case. The US and other countries are undercounting because we don’t really know who dies of it and who doesn’t

 

[tall73]

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

In a recent news briefing, President Trump pointed to a bar chart that showed one country's coronavirus death toll per capita stretched out distinctively beyond all the others. It was not Italy or Spain, the countries with the highest total fatalities in Europe — but Belgium.

Belgium has surged to the top of the grim leaderboard because authorities decided to be radically transparent, if perhaps a bit speculative, about the toll from the novel coronavirus. They include not only deaths that are confirmed to be virus-related, but even those suspected of being linked, whether the victim was tested or not.


As of Wednesday, Belgium, with a population of over 11.4 million, has counted a total 6,262 deaths from COVID-19 — roughly 540 per million citizens — and more than half of those deaths were in nursing homes. Of those 52%, just 4.5% were confirmed as having been infected, yet all are counted in the national tally.

However, I am not sure how much that matters. The US also started putting in probable numbers, and the NY ones are showing them on Worldometer, as are most others now.

They started tracking nursing home deaths on April 14 as well, after adding the historic ones.

 

[hedrick]

Nj is trying to get probable, but for people who die at home it’s hard.

 

[klutedavid]

I just noticed Belgium. While much of the media focus has been on Italy and Spain, Belgium's numbers appear to be quietly going through the roof.

I wonder what they're doing wrong?

OB

Not listening to the medical experts on viruses.

More than likely they had the idea that they could safely manage a pandemic, without placing draconian restrictions on their population.

I guess it reduces to this point. Would you be willing to lay down your life for the sake of a more free society?

In the USA which guards the liberty of it's citizens. The death toll is over 52,000 citizens; which is an immense price to pay for that liberty.

As for the idea of herd immunity it comes at a terrific price.

 

[tall73]

Not listening to the medical experts on viruses.

Evidence?

More than likely they had the idea that they could safely manage a pandemic, without placing draconian restrictions on their population.

I guess it reduces to this point. Would you be willing to lay down your life for the sake of a more free society?

In the USA which guards the liberty of it's citizens. The death toll is over 52,000 citizens; which is an immense price to pay for that liberty.

As for the idea of herd immunity it comes at a terrific price.

The deaths per million population for Belgium are 3.6 times those of the USA.

 

[Occams Barber]

Why Belgium's Death Rate Is So High: It Counts Lots Of Suspected COVID-19 Cases

In a recent news briefing, President Trump pointed to a bar chart that showed one country's coronavirus death toll per capita stretched out distinctively beyond all the others. It was not Italy or Spain, the countries with the highest total fatalities in Europe — but Belgium.

Belgium has surged to the top of the grim leaderboard because authorities decided to be radically transparent, if perhaps a bit speculative, about the toll from the novel coronavirus. They include not only deaths that are confirmed to be virus-related, but even those suspected of being linked, whether the victim was tested or not.


As of Wednesday, Belgium, with a population of over 11.4 million, has counted a total 6,262 deaths from COVID-19 — roughly 540 per million citizens — and more than half of those deaths were in nursing homes. Of those 52%, just 4.5% were confirmed as having been infected, yet all are counted in the national tally.

However, I am not sure how much that matters. The US also started putting in probable numbers, and the NY ones are showing them on Worldometer, as are most others now.

They started tracking nursing home deaths on April 14 as well, after adding the historic ones.

I found a couple of articles on Belgium. Both articles put Belgium's numbers down to (excessive?) honesty similar to your article. They also pinpoint counting nursing home deaths where CV19 is assumed, but not verified, as the cause.
Why is Belgium a Europe hotspot for COVID-19 deaths?
Analysis: Can we trust Belgium's COVID-19 death statistics?

OB

 

[tall73]

Updated numbers:

Belgium 576
Spain 482
Italy 430
France 341
UK 287
Netherlands 250
Sweden 213
Ireland 205
Switzerland 184
USA 157
Portugal 84
Denmark 70
Germany 69
Canada 61
Austria 59
Norway 37
Finland 32
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

Belgium 597
Spain 490
Italy 436
France 346
UK 299
Netherlands 257
Sweden 217
Ireland 215
Switzerland 185
USA 164
Denmark 72
Germany 70
Canada 65
Austria 60
Norway 37
Finland 34
New Zealand 4
Australia 3

 

[tall73]

Sweden's virus expert is so popular that people are getting his FACE as a tattoo | Daily Mail Online

Yet he is so popular that some in Stockholm have had his face inked on to their arms and legs. Tattooist Zashay Tastas, who designed the image, says: ‘Tegnell has become the face of Sweden’s approach. This is the first time a real nerd is being idolised.’

Or as Dr Tegnell himself puts it: ‘It is the first time in history that an epidemiologist has been considered famous.’ He modestly notes, however, that he is just one of 15 experts meeting daily to analyse data and make recommendations.

Arne Elofsson, a biologist at Stockholm University, initially estimated that the nation’s health system would be quickly swamped, but now concedes: ‘It appears the epidemic is plateauing and that the catastrophic scenarios predicted by some will never appear in Sweden.’

Dr Tegnell is cautious by nature but declares himself ‘satisfied’ the strategy appears to be working, even if there are some things he would have done differently, especially in care homes.

Nationally, the number of new cases rose sharply last week – due mainly to increased testing – and stands at 18,177. Most are in Stockholm and its suburbs, with very small numbers in the thinly populated areas elsewhere.

‘We think we are at a peak of infections in Stockholm and we are not at full capacity in hospitals, so I’m pleased,’ adds Mr Eriksson. ‘But we must not be complacent. The weather is getting warmer, more people will be outside and they will need to be disciplined about social distancing.’

 

[tall73]

Sweden is taking a very different approach to Covid-19

There are some rules—high schools and universities are closed, gatherings of more than 50 people are banned, and people over 70 and those who feel ill are encouraged to stay home. But businesses largely remain open, and children who would otherwise need care are in school.

But Sweden’s healthcare system has not been overburdened, a key goal of countries that have chosen lockdowns. Plenty of intensive-care beds are free, Tegnell said. The country more than doubled its ICU capacity to over 1,000 beds; currently 550 are occupied (link in Swedish). Meanwhile, there is no fraught debate over how to re-open society, and whether there will be a second wave, because society has largely remained open.

Tegnell insists herd immunity is not Sweden’s strategy. “Herd immunity is not a policy, it’s a status you can achieve,” Tegnell said. “We want as few people to get infected as possible, at a slow pace, so the health system can cope.”

Tegnell said in a briefing that the country’s policies in the pandemic were informed by science but also by the way Swedes have always valued independence. “It’s a long tradition that works very well,” said Tegnell.

There are various social and epidemiological reasons that, if Sweden’s strategy works, it might only apply within its borders. While comparisons to Denmark and Norway may be apt, comparisons to larger more diverse countries are not. “What works for Sweden will not work for the UK,” said Kao. Sweden’s first case arrived later, too, so it had more time and information than other countries to begin social-distancing measures.

It may have an easier time executing them, too: Sweden has a small population of 10 million—about the size of Georgia or North Carolina—and that population is spread out. Over 50% of homes are single-dwelling households, which lowers the risk of transmission. Many people work from home and have fast internet access. Some have noted that Sweden’s character is well suited for social distancing. A popular meme is a before and after Covid picture of a bus stop, with people two meters apart in both frames.

 

[Jimmy D]

Well the thread seems to have drifted off topic somewhat.

My favourite is probably Victoria Silvstedt. Frida Gustavsson should be one to watch for the future though.

Victoria.....