Could Jan Brewe run as the Rep presidential candidate in 2012?

[TemperateSeaIsland]

Just a question to Americans, do you think it's likely to happen? Republicans seem to like her and she seems to be getting a lot of press at the moment.

EDIT - OOPS Brewer not Brewe.

 

[Staccato]

If she did, her platform would be focused predominantly be on the single issue most Americans know her for: immigration and border control.

Is she any more likely to run than the half dozen other Republicans who've had their moment in the spotlight over some issue or other? Who knows. It's not a very good answer, but the truth is that I honestly don't know which way the GOP is planning on going for 2012, whether it's going to try and moderate slightly to attract indies or is gonna go full out Tea Party. Time will tell.

 

[blueapplepaste]

NPR actually had an interesting article on voter issues and how they affected votes. They talked about an immigration paradox in that many voters say illegal immigration is important to them, but when push comes to shove it plays little role in how they decide their vote. Things like the economy, social issues, fiscal issues, etc play a larger role in deciding to cast their vote.

That being said, the article also mentioned that with all of the press of illegal immigration, that could change for this election cycle, but for past election cycles it was true.

Reason I say that is that on a national scale, I'm not sure how her stance on illegal immigration would play out. It makes for nice talk radio, but I think people are still more concerned about the economy right now. I think someone like Romney will stand a better chance on '12 for getting the Republican nomination than Brewer.

 

[Staccato]

NPR actually had an interesting article on voter issues and how they affected votes. They talked about an immigration paradox in that many voters say illegal immigration is important to them, but when push comes to shove it plays little role in how they decide their vote. Things like the economy, social issues, fiscal issues, etc play a larger role in deciding to cast their vote.

That being said, the article also mentioned that with all of the press of illegal immigration, that could change for this election cycle, but for past election cycles it was true.

Reason I say that is that on a national scale, I'm not sure how her stance on illegal immigration would play out. It makes for nice talk radio, but I think people are still more concerned about the economy right now. I think someone like Romney will stand a better chance on '12 for getting the Republican nomination than Brewer.

To be honest, I doubt it. Brewer may run on an issue that has little influence on the national level across the ideological spectrum (or, when the election comes, people may default to 'more important' matters), but it is one that resonates strongly with the base, and the primaries are more about ideological compatability than crafting successful policy anyways. Romney has severe ideological issues with the base, especially with how they currently stand. I'd peg Brewer over Romney to win the primary, although I don't think either of them will.

 

[EdwinWillers]

NPR actually had an interesting article on voter issues and how they affected votes. They talked about an immigration paradox in that many voters say illegal immigration is important to them, but when push comes to shove it plays little role in how they decide their vote. Things like the economy, social issues, fiscal issues, etc play a larger role in deciding to cast their vote.

That being said, the article also mentioned that with all of the press of illegal immigration, that could change for this election cycle, but for past election cycles it was true.

Reason I say that is that on a national scale, I'm not sure how her stance on illegal immigration would play out. It makes for nice talk radio, but I think people are still more concerned about the economy right now. I think someone like Romney will stand a better chance on '12 for getting the Republican nomination than Brewer.

I tend to concur - though I think immigration is fast becoming a large-scale issue, unlike in times past. It already is in many states - like mine, Colorado.

 

[AirPo]

If she did, her platform would be focused predominantly be on the single issue most Americans know her for: immigration and border control.

Is she any more likely to run than the half dozen other Republicans who've had their moment in the spotlight over some issue or other? Who knows. It's not a very good answer, but the truth is that I honestly don't know which way the GOP is planning on going for 2012, whether it's going to try and moderate slightly to attract indies or is gonna go full out Tea Party. Time will tell.

Palin/Angle 2010!

 

[Staccato]

Palin/Angle 2010!

...as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were...suddenly silenced

 

[blueapplepaste]

To be honest, I doubt it. Brewer may run on an issue that has little influence on the national level across the ideological spectrum (or, when the election comes, people may default to 'more important' matters), but it is one that resonates strongly with the base, and the primaries are more about ideological compatability than crafting successful policy anyways. Romney has severe ideological issues with the base, especially with how they currently stand. I'd peg Brewer over Romney to win the primary, although I don't think either of them will.

Good point. The base tends to be the one to vote in primaries. I could see them nominating someone like Brewer or even Palin to run. These people play to the base, but not to America as a whole. It would be a disaster for Republicans to run someone who would so easily be painted as an extremist.

I tend to concur - though I think immigration is fast becoming a large-scale issue, unlike in times past. It already is in many states - like mine, Colorado.

Yeah, but I think the economy will still be number one in '12. Though a lot can happen in two years to shift priorities

 

[lemmings]

It's imposable to tell right now, it all depends on the 2010 elections and the state of the Tea Party in 2012 so I see 3 major possibilities.

• If they win in 2010, they will keep pushing the more right-wing candidates in the 2012 election cycle so Brewer will find herself in a primary with others like Palin and Bachmann.

If they don't win in 2010, it depends on how the GOP deals with the Tea Party members, they need to keep this base motivated but there is no chance that that base will win national elections.

• By pushing the Tea Party into more right-wing positions and then running moderates to win the election cycle, they risk alienating a very large number of conservatives in the country. This would fracture the GOP for several years and is the worst case for them since it would split the vote. Again, Brewer will be able to run but she likely would be on the Tea Party not Republican side.
  
• At this point though, the Tea Party would have 4 years of revolutionary rhetoric and I think there is a good chance that it may just dissolve as interest drops. This is the best long term case for the Republican party since it will permit them to run moderates again.

 

[jayem]

The Gov. took the spotlight for signing and defending it, but it's not her law. She didn't write the bill, nor AFAIK, did she even propose it to the legislature. State Sen. Russell Pearce really deserves the credit, or blame, depending on one's POV. And he's got some baggage.

 

[EdwinWillers]

Palin/Angle 2010!

Biden / Pelosi 2012.

 

[The Lady Kate]

The Gov. took the spotlight for signing and defending it, but it's not her law. She didn't write the bill, nor AFAIK, did she even propose it to the legislature. State Sen. Russell Pearce really deserves the credit, or blame, depending on one's POV. And he's got some baggage.

Which works out even better for Brewer... she can claim the credit; dump the baggage.

I must say that since the whole AZ immigration position is one of "The feds are incompetent; let the states defend themselves," it would be a flip-flop, at the very least, to use it as a springboard to a federal position.

 

[variant]

To be honest, I doubt it. Brewer may run on an issue that has little influence on the national level across the ideological spectrum (or, when the election comes, people may default to 'more important' matters), but it is one that resonates strongly with the base, and the primaries are more about ideological compatability than crafting successful policy anyways. Romney has severe ideological issues with the base, especially with how they currently stand. I'd peg Brewer over Romney to win the primary, although I don't think either of them will.

Sure worked for Tom Tancredo.

 

[Jessica01]

Just a question to Americans, do you think it's likely to happen? Republicans seem to like her and she seems to be getting a lot of press at the moment.

EDIT - OOPS Brewer not Brewe.

I think it would be a slam dunk for any Democrat running against her. She is just a puppet of the angry fringe and isn't really doing anything to fix the economic problems of Arizona. She is helping to make things worse.


Besides, she would get caught in more little tales and get embarrassed. Like:
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer Wrongly Claims Father Died Fighting Nazi Germany

and

County coroners can't back Brewer beheadings claim

Appearing on a local television show Sunday morning, Gov. Jan Brewer described how bad Arizona's illegal immigration problem has gotten.
"Our law enforcement agencies have found bodies in the desert either buried or just lying out there that have been beheaded," she said.
But officials with six county medical examiners offices in the state, including four from counties that border Mexico, say they have never heard of such attacks.

Now think of all the topics she could get caught on in a national election.....

 

[Harpuia]

Palin/Angle 2010!

The spending of countless weeks talking about why Angle looks like the more irresponsible of the two.

No thanks. While we're at it, how about she makes Tom Tancredo Secretary of Defense, Glenn Beck Secretary of State, Rush Limbaugh the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Ann Coulter the Secretary of Transportation?

At least with Huckabee you have a shot of Chuck Norris being somewhere, and well, he can't be any worse than anyone above me.