Coronaviris death rate update.

[Halbhh]

The models change with the daily numbers. Regarding preparedness, whose responsibility is it to have enough supplies to address a pandemic? Which begs a larger question: Have we built a society that is impossible to maintain when the cracks appear?

I went to the food store today. Only half of the customers wore masks, and only two of the employees.

You'll want to know about this --

[Federal Pandemic Simulation, 2019] --"The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

"That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

"The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed. ..."

"Many of the potentially deadly consequences of a failure to address the shortcomings are now playing out in all-too-real fashion across the country. And it was hardly the first warning for the nation’s leaders. Three times over the past four years the U.S. government, across two administrations, had grappled in depth with what a pandemic would look like, identifying likely shortcomings and in some cases recommending specific action.

In 2016, the Obama administration produced a comprehensive report on the lessons learned by the government from battling Ebola. In January 2017, outgoing Obama administration officials ran an extensive exercise on responding to a pandemic for incoming senior officials of the Trump administration."

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded

 

[OldWiseGuy]

You'll want to know about this --

[Federal Pandemic Simulation, 2019] --"The outbreak of the respiratory virus began in China and was quickly spread around the world by air travelers, who ran high fevers. In the United States, it was first detected in Chicago, and 47 days later, the World Health Organization declared a pandemic. By then it was too late: 110 million Americans were expected to become ill, leading to 7.7 million hospitalized and 586,000 dead.

"That scenario, code-named “Crimson Contagion” and imagining an influenza pandemic, was simulated by the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services in a series of exercises that ran from last January to August.

"The simulation’s sobering results — contained in a draft report dated October 2019 that has not previously been reported — drove home just how underfunded, underprepared and uncoordinated the federal government would be for a life-or-death battle with a virus for which no treatment existed. ..."

"Many of the potentially deadly consequences of a failure to address the shortcomings are now playing out in all-too-real fashion across the country. And it was hardly the first warning for the nation’s leaders. Three times over the past four years the U.S. government, across two administrations, had grappled in depth with what a pandemic would look like, identifying likely shortcomings and in some cases recommending specific action.

In 2016, the Obama administration produced a comprehensive report on the lessons learned by the government from battling Ebola. In January 2017, outgoing Obama administration officials ran an extensive exercise on responding to a pandemic for incoming senior officials of the Trump administration."

Before Virus Outbreak, a Cascade of Warnings Went Unheeded

Another can kicked down the road.

 

[Halbhh]

Another can kicked down the road.

 

[tall73]

This is a very good case study. We should also add that the ship was quarantined on Feb 4, 2020. As of 16 March 2020, 712 out of the 3,711 passengers and crew had tested positive for COVID-19. This is a ratio of 19%.

Since 597 have recovered and 10 have died, there are still 105 active cases. So, we are unable to calculate the final mortality rate at this time.

Yes, the picture is slowly clarifying as cases resolve. This tracker also lists critical cases:

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,346,566 Cases and 74,697 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

We are down to 82 active cases, 10 of which are in critical condition. While some could still take a turn for the worse, that is overall pretty good news this far out. We did have one additional death, however. We are at a 1.5 percent rate now.

As a worse case scenario, if all 10 of those in critical condition were to pass then we would be at around 2.9 percent. However, studies out of China, etc. suggest that about half of those in critical condition recover. I hope they all do. In any case, we are starting to form a range for this particular sample. And most scenarios are starting to look better than the initial WHO estimates, even with the elevated age in the sample.

 

[Andrewn]

We are down to 82 active cases, 10 of which are in critical condition. While some could still take a turn for the worse, that is overall pretty good news this far out. We did have one additional death, however. We are at a 1.5 percent rate now. As a worse case scenario, if all 10 of those in critical condition were to pass then we would be at around 2.9 percent. However, studies out of China, etc. suggest that about half of those in critical condition recover.

It's reasonable to assume that all 3,711 passengers and crew were exposed to the virus. If 50% of those still in critical condition die, the death toll will be 16. This is 0.43% of the exposed ppl.

I hope that most of us have not been exposed after social isolation measures were enacted on 3/16. Those who were exposed before that date have either recovered or become sick by now.

Governors see possible 'flattening' of the curve in latest coronavirus data

 

[Tanj]

It's reasonable to assume that all 3,711 passengers and crew were exposed to the virus. If 50% of those still in critical condition die, the death toll will be 16. This is only 0.43% of the exposed ppl.

I gotta ask, what is it about 0.43% that makes you think it deserves the word "only" in front of it? If 330 million Americans are exposed to the virus that's only 1.4 million dead. I mean seriously. How many people have to die before you stop using "only"?

 

[Petros2015]

For confirmed cases in the USA, death rate is SUBSTANTIALLY higher than .43%. Try 7.3%
If you want to say, 'well there's at least as many asymptomatics that are never counted', and there is some evidence from Germany and South Korea that there are 20-50% asymptomatic, now you are down to somewhere between 5 and 3.5%.

But, I would note that if 50% of USA suffered a 5% mortality rate, that would be about 12 million dead, about 200 million globally. I don't think 50% of USA will be infected, unless we all suddenly ignore lockdown completely, but globally the tally could come in something like that given a years time.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

I gotta ask, what is it about 0.43% that makes you think it deserves the word "only" in front of it? If 330 million Americans are exposed to the virus that's only 1.4 million dead. I mean seriously. How many people have to die before you stop using "only"?

Isn't the "only" figure positive news?

 

[Andrewn]

If 330 million Americans are exposed to the virus that's only 1.4 million dead.

Who said that every single person in the US has been exposed to COVID-19? I certainly didn't.

But, I would note that if 50% of USA suffered a 5% mortality rate, that would be about 12 million dead,

In a different thread, about 2 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000-25,000 deaths in the US. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US. The curve is already starting to flatten out and we haven't reached 25,000. Thank God.

US may become virus epicentre

 

[loveofourlord]

Who said that every single person has been exposed to COVID-19? I certainly didn't.


In a different thread, about 3 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000 deaths. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US. The curve is already starting to flatten out, thank God.

ehhhh....maybe new cases, but certainly not deaths.

 

[wing2000]

...from Dr John Campbell (data shared from his video)

2,900 ICU Patients from the London area - report from 4 April:

Median age: 61 (OQR 52-70 - meaning, 25% < 52, 25% > 70)
Male: 73% (significant, and consistent with Italy)
Female: 27%

Required ventilation: 62% in first 24 hours

Outcomes of 690 patients (remainder of the 2,900 are still pending):
346 Died
344 Lived

 

[wing2000]

New York has a similar trend:

To date, there have been nearly 43 Covid-19 deaths for every 100,000 men in the city, compared with 23 such deaths for every 100,000 women, according to figures reported by the city’s health department. And men are being hospitalized with severe disease at higher rates.

In N.Y.C., the Coronavirus Is Killing Men Twice as Often as Women

 

[Subduction Zone]

Who said that every single person in the US has been exposed to COVID-19? I certainly didn't.


In a different thread, about 2 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000-25,000 deaths in the US. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US. The curve is already starting to flatten out and we haven't reached 25,000. Thank God.

US may become virus epicentre

There is some flattening of the curve. But we really won't know how we are doing until after the lockdown ends. It cannot be maintained. Soon the economic woes will be worse than the physical ones.

United States Coronavirus: 400,540 Cases and 12,857 Deaths - Worldometer

The flattening is more obvious in the logarithmic version of the graph on that page.

 

[cow451]

...from Dr John Campbell (data shared from his video)

2,900 ICU Patients from the London area - report from 4 April:

Median age: 61 (OQR 52-70 - meaning, 25% < 52, 25% > 70)
Male: 73% (significant, and consistent with Italy)
Female: 27%

Required ventilation: 62% in first 24 hours

Outcomes of 690 patients (remainder of the 2,900 are still pending):
346 Died
344 Lived

Whoa. Wait a minute..... Men are dying at double the rate of women? Now that’s really bad. It’s time to start taking this thing seriously, people! All those MEN in the Trump administration are letting us down. Help a brother out, Mr. President! Us guys need to stick together.

Hold on.... this could be some feminist and gay boy plot to take over! Mr. President, we need you now more than ever. Men Are Going Away?

 

[Subduction Zone]

Whoa. Wait a minute..... Men are dying at double the rate of women? Now that’s really bad. It’s time to start taking this thing seriously, people! All those MEN in the Trump administration are letting us down. Help a brother out, Mr. President! Is guys need to stick together.

Hold on.... this could be some feminist and gay boy plot to take over! Mr. President, we need you now more than ever. Men Are Going Away?

Just look on the bright side. That means more women for those of us that survive.

 

[cow451]

Just look on the bright side. That means more women for those of us that survive.

Oh. You and Trump are in on this devious plot.... what are you calling this, “Operation Stormy”?

 

[Larniavc]

Oh. You and Trump are in on this devious plot.... what are you calling this, “Operation Stormy”?

I wonder if this is the Devil’s way of promoting lesbiopathy.

 

[Petros2015]

Whoa. Wait a minute..... Men are dying at double the rate of women? Now that’s really bad.

Are you sure? Aren't men built to repopulate the planet in the case of emergency when all the other men are dead? And don't we love to create emergencies?

 

[Petros2015]

In a different thread, about 2 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000-25,000 deaths in the US. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US.

I doubt it too, but I think at 400k confirmed cases, you can already 'bank' around 40k fatalities if you stopped all new cases coming in and waited 4 weeks for them all to resolve. A wild guess might put us around 500 - 600k confirmed cases in this wave if things settle down and don't really explode in other heavily population centers. Government models are showing expected ~60k fatalities now, but I'm not sure what expected fatality rate they are using and they don't really show the expected confirmed numbers.

I guess if we assume 80% mild, 20% need hospital care, they are anticipating needing 95K beds at peak. So they are anticipating roughly 95 / .2 = ~475k confirmed cases at peak before things start to drop and we get less and less cases coming in. Seems roughly right, or we might not get there. But you'd probably have ballpark 600K cases by the end of it as things tail off.

They are looking at about 60K deaths total, so it seems to me like they are expecting about a 10% fatality rate from 600k cases confirmed, with 20% of those confirmed cases requiring hospitalization and 50% of those hospitalized being potential fatalities. Also seems about right to me.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

 

[Petros2015]

They are looking at about 60K deaths total, so it seems to me like they are expecting about a 10% fatality rate from 600k cases confirmed, with 20% of those confirmed cases requiring hospitalization and 50% of those hospitalized being potential fatalities. Also seems about right to me.

Could be higher though - here's what a 10% killer of confirmed cases looks like (red line is estimate) vs actual Covid over time. The red line estimate was meant to roughly model the 2003 SARS warhead for comparison with the actual Covid fatalities of confirmed cases

1% killed at week 0
1% killed at week 1
1% killed at week 2
1% killed at week 3
5% killed at week 4
1% killed at week 5

But look at the Blue line, those are the actual Covid deaths over time. In the early days it looked less dangerous than SARS (the early days were largely driven by Chinese reported data in their outbreak). Not so much now...