Coronaviris death rate update.

OldWiseGuy

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As of 4:30 today 03/23/2020 the official corona virus figures from the CDC for the U.S. were,

35,345 confirmed cases
473 deaths

For a 'death rate' of .013, or about the same as the flu.

Source: Trump signals growing skepticism about coronavirus lockdown (Watch right side of screen for figures.)
 
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essentialsaltes

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0.013 is 1.3%

or more than 10 times the rate of flu.

[as others have noted, your calculation also ignores the fact that many cases have not resolved either way. So this is the best case scenario if all of those cases recover. In reality, some of them will certainly die, increasing the numerator and increasing the death rate.]
 
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Hans Blaster

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As of 4:30 today 03/23/2020 the official corona virus figures from the CDC for the U.S. were,

35,345 confirmed cases
473 deaths

For a 'death rate' of .013, or about the same as the flu.

Source: Trump signals growing skepticism about coronavirus lockdown (Watch right side of screen for figures.)

There are three states for any person who has tested positive:

1. They can recover.
2. They can die.
3. They can still be sick, with their fates unknown.

So the death rate should be #2 / ( #1 + #2 ), or deaths/(recoveries + deaths).

Our event in the US is still quite young, so most of the cases are still sick, but in China where the number of new cases has been low for a while the rate would be: 3,270 / ( 81,093 + 3,270 ) = 0.043, or 4.3%.

In the US there are very few cases that have "resolved" with recoveries very small (178 at the current time) so it wouldn't be reflective of the realistic death rate to use that number. [all numbers came from the related Wikipedia articles in the last few minutes]

In computing the true death rate, identifying the number of people who were actually infected and didn't get tested will be necessary. This hasn't happened yet, but China (or S. Korea) would be the likely place to get these numbers once there is an antibody test.
 
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solid_core

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As of 4:30 today 03/23/2020 the official corona virus figures from the CDC for the U.S. were,

35,345 confirmed cases
473 deaths

For a 'death rate' of .013, or about the same as the flu.

Source: Trump signals growing skepticism about coronavirus lockdown (Watch right side of screen for figures.)

Coronavirus already killed much more people than swine flu in many countries.

Compare:
2009 flu pandemic in Europe - Wikipedia

With:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 377,713 Cases and 16,473 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Also, in many countries, the number of deaths are higher than number of recovered people. So we must wait. Do you know what is happening in Italy or in Spain? Thats not a "common" or "lighter than flu" situation.
 
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SummerMadness

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Some of you are really trying to push this "just the flu" idea really hard. It's not just the flu, it is far more deadly than the flu. That doesn't justify panic where you buy up all the toilet paper, but it does not justify this nonchalant attitude toward the virus. Is it of any surprise that those who continue to dismiss or ignore this virus as not being dangerous fall on the right end of the political spectrum?
 
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expos4ever

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expos4ever

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Alright students, who will be the first to point out the flaw in this reasoning?
....and we have a winner!!!

Hans Blaster said:
There are three states for any person who has tested positive:

1. They can recover.
2. They can die.
3. They can still be sick, with their fates unknown.

So the death rate should be #2 / ( #1 + #2 ), or deaths/(recoveries + deaths).
 
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essentialsaltes

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Is it of any surprise that those who continue to dismiss or ignore this virus as not being dangerous fall on the right end of the political spectrum?

In one sense it is a surprise, since the virus has no political axe to grind. And the facts are what they are.

But in another sense, it is not a surprise, since the right has worked hard to get its base to

#1: ignore expert advice
#2: distrust the news media
#3: obtain alternative facts from the peddlers of alternative facts
 
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Hank77

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There are three states for any person who has tested positive:

1. They can recover.
2. They can die.
3. They can still be sick, with their fates unknown.

So the death rate should be #2 / ( #1 + #2 ), or deaths/(recoveries + deaths).

Our event in the US is still quite young, so most of the cases are still sick, but in China where the number of new cases has been low for a while the rate would be: 3,270 / ( 81,093 + 3,270 ) = 0.043, or 4.3%.

In the US there are very few cases that have "resolved" with recoveries very small (178 at the current time) so it wouldn't be reflective of the realistic death rate to use that number. [all numbers came from the related Wikipedia articles in the last few minutes]

In computing the true death rate, identifying the number of people who were actually infected and didn't get tested will be necessary. This hasn't happened yet, but China (or S. Korea) would be the likely place to get these numbers once there is an antibody test.
A blood test has been developed by the United Biomedical Group and its subsidiary c19.
 
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Zoii

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On 23 March, The USA recorded 10168 new confirmed cases and another 140 dead. It is now the third most infected country and things have only just begun there, raising the question over that nations initial response to the pandemic.

The total confirmed cases is 43734 and 553 dead. The rate of increase in both infection and death rates, is now steeply inclining. Those in this and other threads suggesting that this is nothing but hysteria, are wrong and probably echoing their leader.
Covid19.jpg
 
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nonaeroterraqueous

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But in another sense, it is not a surprise, since the right has worked hard to get its base to

#1: ignore expert advice
#2: distrust the news media
#3: obtain alternative facts from the peddlers of alternative facts
I know it's fun to try to analyze the opposition and come to some fine conclusions about their psychology, but as a member of the right I'd like to make matters easier for you by telling you how I see it. It would appear to us that the left takes a perverse pleasure in finding ways to make us afraid of literally anything, even to the point of making temperate weather an object of horror. After so many years of being bombarded with dire predictions, followed by the catastrophic aftermath of...life as usual, we've come to the unmistakable conclusion that the left has no credibility. This is not simply a matter of respectful disagreement, but has become, instead, the stark feeling that half of the population makes a habit of lying and believing lies.

Our defense, as you say, is to
#1: ignore expert advice, because the only expert advice anyone gets to hear is selected by only one class of individuals, known as the news media, who make their living not by informing, but by giving people reasons to care about things that would otherwise be mundane and not worth listening to. If a thousand experts tell us not to worry, and two experts under the employ of the media tell us to run for cover, we will only hear the experts that present the most dire advice.

#2: distrust the news media, because, as previously mentioned, it makes its buck by giving us reasons to care, and because the media is largely dominated by the left, who seem to be in the habit of fearing everything.

#3: obtain alternative facts from the peddlers of alternative facts, because we must always consider the strong possibility that the popular rumor presented to us by the media is either a lie, or a half truth, or a lie mixed with truth. We cannot be blamed for looking elsewhere when the conventional source of information is known to be strongly compromised. The truth is, we have no reliable source of information, and we must consider a variety of sources skeptically.

As for me, I do not dismiss the danger of the virus. What I do dismiss is the fear. It takes courage to get up in the morning and go to work every day, knowing that I am steadily on my way to the grave, which is true with or without any virus. If I don't live like a craven coward, you might think me a fool, but perhaps the real foolishness is accepting fear and economic ruin in a futile attempt to stop the unstoppable.
 
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essentialsaltes

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I know it's fun to try to analyze the opposition and come to some fine conclusions about their psychology, but as a member of the right I'd like to make matters easier for you by telling you how I see it. It would appear to us that the left takes a perverse pleasure in finding ways to make us afraid of literally anything, even to the point of making temperate weather an object of horror.

It gives us no pleasure, perverse or otherwise, to note that climate change is real, and that 'once in a century floods' are happening with regularity. This is not the message of the left, but the message of the experts who keep these records.

Our defense, as you say, is to
#1: ignore expert advice, because the only expert advice anyone gets to hear is selected by only one class of individuals, known as the news media

No, every field of knowledge has its own experts, and it is to them that media are inevitably drawn. In the case under consideration, Dr. Fauci is the director of NIAID and a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force. I advise you to listen to his expert advice.

#2: distrust the news media, because, as previously mentioned, it makes its buck by giving us reasons to care

Let's skip this for the present.

#3: obtain alternative facts from the peddlers of alternative facts, because we must always consider the strong possibility that the popular rumor presented to us by the media is either a lie

The media presents rumors? What is it that the, um, non-media present? You may have the opinion that the media's claim of journalistic integrity is baloney, but the non-media do not even have a claim to integrity. It's just... some poop you heard on the internet.

As for me, I do not dismiss the danger of the virus. What I do dismiss is the fear.

What media sources have told people that the proper response is to be afraid? Have they not provided concrete actions of social distancing, etc., to help reduce the risks of infection? I made, as far as I know, the first post on this site about coronavirus on January 22nd. Have I spread fear, or information?

perhaps the real foolishness is accepting fear and economic ruin in a futile attempt to stop the unstoppable.

Have I, or anyone in the media, said the pandemic is going to stop anytime soon? Who has said that the pandemic would stop soon?
 
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Zoii

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Have I, or anyone in the media, said the pandemic is going to stop anytime soon? Who has said that the pandemic would stop soon?

Actually Donald Trump stated that the country will only stick with current restrictions for a few weeks because to shutdown longer has too great an economic impact
 
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KCfromNC

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In one sense it is a surprise, since the virus has no political axe to grind. And the facts are what they are.

But in another sense, it is not a surprise, since the right has worked hard to get its base to

#1: ignore expert advice
#2: distrust the news media
#3: obtain alternative facts from the peddlers of alternative facts
#4 : Sacrifice their health and well being to prop up stock prices
 
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Zoii

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Petros2015

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Actually Donald Trump stated that the country will only stick with current restrictions for a few weeks because to shutdown longer has too great an economic impact

That's pretty funny. You are looking at 1 million cases globally by April Fools Day I believe, 37 million by end of April and a billion by end of May.

Also, I think it's about to go through congress like a lawnmower.
 
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hedrick

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That's pretty funny. You are looking at 1 million cases globally by April Fools Day I believe, 37 million by end of April and a billion by end of May.

Also, I think it's about to go through congress like a lawnmower.
That's if no one does anything to stop it. Everyone is taking steps to prevent that.
 
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Tanj

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That's pretty funny. You are looking at 1 million cases globally by April Fools Day I believe, 37 million by end of April and a billion by end of May.

Also, I think it's about to go through congress like a lawnmower.

like a lawn mower goes through...???

I find your dangling simile unsatisfying.
 
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Petros2015

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That's if no one does anything to stop it. Everyone is taking steps to prevent that.

Some are, but I was referencing a post where it it was being considered that the 'country will only stick with current restrictions for a few weeks'. That's like saying there is a hurricane that is going to last for 3 months, but we will only spend a few weeks in shelter.

Mortality will continue to increase significantly after the healthcare system breaks. I think we are looking at 200,000,000 dead globally by end of year (that would be 50% global infection at a 5% death rate). It is *easily* capable of doing much more than that.
 
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