Coronaviris death rate update.

[Andrewn]

They are looking at about 60K deaths total,

I hope and expect the death toll to be lower than this and definitely lower than your calculations. The other question is, what does "total" mean? On what date should we count the totals?

 

[Subduction Zone]

I hope and expect the death toll to be lower than this and definitely lower than your calculations. The other question is, what does "total" mean? On what date should we count the totals?

If you checked the links the poster was referring to deaths in the U.S..

The links show deaths projected based upon full social distancing through May.

 

[Andrewn]

If you checked the links the poster was referring to deaths in the U.S..

Yes, of course.

The links show deaths projected based upon full social distancing through May.

We'll wait and see what the stats are like by end of May, then .

 

[hedrick]

I doubt it too, but I think at 400k confirmed cases, you can already 'bank' around 40k fatalities if you stopped all new cases coming in and waited 4 weeks for them all to resolve. A wild guess might put us around 500 - 600k confirmed cases in this wave if things settle down and don't really explode in other heavily population centers. Government models are showing expected ~60k fatalities now, but I'm not sure what expected fatality rate they are using and they don't really show the expected confirmed numbers.

I guess if we assume 80% mild, 20% need hospital care, they are anticipating needing 95K beds at peak. So they are anticipating roughly 95 / .2 = ~475k confirmed cases at peak before things start to drop and we get less and less cases coming in. Seems roughly right, or we might not get there. But you'd probably have ballpark 600K cases by the end of it as things tail off.

They are looking at about 60K deaths total, so it seems to me like they are expecting about a 10% fatality rate from 600k cases confirmed, with 20% of those confirmed cases requiring hospitalization and 50% of those hospitalized being potential fatalities. Also seems about right to me.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Right, although the range of possible values is 31K - 127K. If you look at the pattern that would lead to 31K, it looks sort of implausible.

 

[MIDutch]

The death total stands at 14,604 as of 6:00 pm today.

One of those was a young girl named Charlotte Figi, aged 13.

Her story first came to the nations attentions when her mother had to move her to Colorado to fight for her life. Charlotte had a rare form of epilepsy, Dravet syndrome, that no traditional medical treatments could help. She had 300 grand mal seizures a week and multiple cardiac arrest events. She could barely speak, couldn't walk, couldn't feed herself and had numerous other health and developmental issues due to her epilepsy. IIRC her dad was stationed in Afghanistan at the time and in his spare time poured over the internet looking for something that would help his daughter and found a some articles indicating that cannabidiol (CBD) lessened or eliminated some epileptic seizures. Unfortunately his daughter lived in a state where marijuana was illegal for any purpose. Despite repeated attempts to get a doctor to help, the family was finally forced to find help outside of their state. They were able to contact a Colorado family of marijuana growers who had just developed a strain of marijuana that was low in the psychoactive ingredient THC but high in CBD. Charlotte and her family moved to Colorado and were able to find a doctor who would prescribe CBD. The oil derivative from the special marijuana strain immediately helped her symptoms and was later named Charlotte's Web, demonstrating in no uncertain terms the beneficial medical uses of CBD.

I very clearly remember seeing her story on the news and on Facebook at the time. Charlotte Figi's story, in my opinion, changed the way the United States views marijuana. Whatever your opinion is about the dangers or benefits of marijuana, you can not help but be saddened at Charlotte Figi's passing. She fought her whole life against a terrible, debilitating disease with the help of her family, friends, concerned (Colorado marijuana growers) acquaintances and CBD, but finally succumbed to coronavirus.

 

[MIDutch]

Sometimes you get so caught up in the huge numbers that you forget those numbers represent real people:

 

[tall73]

Yes, the picture is slowly clarifying as cases resolve. This tracker also lists critical cases:

View attachment 274348
Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,346,566 Cases and 74,697 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

We are down to 82 active cases, 10 of which are in critical condition. While some could still take a turn for the worse, that is overall pretty good news this far out. We did have one additional death, however. We are at a 1.5 percent rate now.


As a worse case scenario, if all 10 of those in critical condition were to pass then we would be at around 2.9 percent. However, studies out of China, etc. suggest that about half of those in critical condition recover. I hope they all do. In any case, we are starting to form a range for this particular sample. And most scenarios are starting to look better than the initial WHO estimates, even with the elevated age in the sample.

Another update for the Diamond Princess case. Unfortunately another death. Up to a 1.6 rate.

 

[whatbogsends]

Who said that every single person in the US has been exposed to COVID-19? I certainly didn't.


In a different thread, about 2 wks ago, I wrote that I expected 20,000-25,000 deaths in the US. The comments I received were expecting 200,000 to 2,000,000 deaths. I think, for good reasons, that the death toll will be nowhere near 200,000 in the US. The curve is already starting to flatten out and we haven't reached 25,000. Thank God.

US may become virus epicentre

Right, although the range of possible values is 31K - 127K. If you look at the pattern that would lead to 31K, it looks sort of implausible.

We're past 25K and are still losing nearly 1500+ more people per day. There's no indication of that death rate going down anytime soon.

Definitely going to be well over 31K, i'd be shocked if it was less than 50K. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 100K.

I hope i'm wrong, but I don't see anything which suggests the death rate will drop significantly within the next week (and at current rates, we'll be over 35K dead at that time).

 

[Subduction Zone]

We're past 25K and are still losing nearly 1500+ more people per day. There's no indication of that death rate going down anytime soon.

Definitely going to be well over 31K, i'd be shocked if it was less than 50K. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 100K.

I hope i'm wrong, but I don't see anything which suggests the death rate will drop significantly within the next week (and at current rates, we'll be over 35K dead at that time).

I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases. And we have seen not only a flattening of the curve when it comes to new cases, the number of new cases per day has dropped. Social distancing is working:

United States Coronavirus: 613,886 Cases and 26,047 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down and you can see a graph of daily new cases. It peaked April 10. Also if you go to the graphs of total deaths and click on the logarithmic version you can see a definite flattening. It is too soon to quit the measures that we have right now, but there is an end in sight.

 

[jacks]

I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases. And we have seen not only a flattening of the curve when it comes to new cases, the number of new cases per day has dropped. Social distancing is working:

United States Coronavirus: 613,886 Cases and 26,047 Deaths - Worldometer

Scroll down and you can see a graph of daily new cases. It peaked April 10. Also if you go to the graphs of total deaths and click on the logarithmic version you can see a definite flattening. It is too soon to quit the measures that we have right now, but there is an end in sight.

That is a great site. You can also cases/death per 1 mil population which is telling. The US is #20 on that list.

 

[loveofourlord]

That is a great site. You can also cases/death per 1 mil population which is telling. The US is #20 on that list.

closer to 15th if you remove countries with less people then a Canadian city.

 

[Petros2015]

I disagree about "no sign of the death rate going down". The first thing that needs to go down is the number of new cases.

Yeah, the number of new cases per day does seem to be dropping rather than escalating in the US and overall globally at the moment.

(US)

As far as 'the death rate going down' it depends on if we mean 'the number of people dying per day', which can still go up because of lagtime to die after infection (the deaths may not have crested yet or just be cresting depending on the # of days it takes and how many recover from ventillator intubation)

or do we mean 'the eventual fatality % of confirmed cases' which depends if we start confirming a lot more mild cases by doing broader testing of the population and confirming not just the sick late in the game, then the death rate among confirmed cases will go down. That is currently standing somewhere north of 7% in the US by my reckoning

Covid Data Recovery and Mortality Estimator

 

[Andrewn]

We're past 25K and are still losing nearly 1500+ more people per day. There's no indication of that death rate going down anytime soon.

Definitely going to be well over 31K, i'd be shocked if it was less than 50K. I wouldn't be surprised if it was over 100K.

I hope i'm wrong, but I don't see anything which suggests the death rate will drop significantly within the next week (and at current rates, we'll be over 35K dead at that time).

Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:

US may become virus epicentre

In many countries, current social isolation measures will expire by 5/11 or 5/12. I hope by then that at least some of the measures will be lifted.

 

[loveofourlord]

Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:

US may become virus epicentre

In many countries, current social isolation measures will expire by 5/11 or 5/12. I hope by then that at least some of the measures will be lifted.

The tricky thing is, the figures have been wrong because so far the US is for the quasi somehwat part keeping the virus in check, that could easily change in a heartbeat.

 

[tall73]

Just for comparison these are the current numbers for deaths per 1 million population:

Spain 397
Belgium 383
Italy 348
France 241
UK 190
Netherlands 183
Switzerland 141
Sweden 119
Ireland 82
USA 79
Portugal 59
Denmark 53
Austria 44
Germany 42
Norway 27
Canada 24

Since the United States is a large country, there are places that the virus took longer to reach, or that took distancing measures sooner. These may still see upticks in cases and deaths over time.

On the other hand, most of the urban centers are well into their crisis, and a number of them waited some time to shut down. So it may be that we have seen more of the crisis than we think if the virus has infected large percentages of the population in these cities.

The big questions still are how far it has reached, and what happens in the rest of the country, outside the large centers. Population density would certainly play a role. Perhaps the rural areas won't be hit as hard. But this virus seems to spread efficiently, so it may slow it, but it will still get there.

But if we start to get closer to the deaths per million of some of those at the top, as it goes through the whole population, this could wind up with a lot of deaths.

 

[tall73]

Deaths per million population:

New York 552
New Jersey 316
Louisiana 217
Connecticut 187
Michigan 178
Massachusetts 140
District Of Columbia 98
Rhode Island 76
Washington 75
Illinois 68
Colorado 59
Indiana 58
Pennsylvania 54
Georgia 51
Maryland 50
Vermont 46
Delaware 45
Nevada 44
Mississippi 37
Wisconsin 29
Florida 28
Ohio 28
Oklahoma 28
Kentucky 26
Alabama 24
Kansas 24
Virginia 23
Missouri 23
Idaho 23
California 20
South Carolina 20
New Hampshire 20
Tennessee 19
Arizona 19
New Mexico 17
Iowa 16
Maine 15
Puerto Rico 15
Minnesota 14
Texas 13
Oregon 13
North Dakota 12
Alaska 12
North Carolina 11
Arkansas 11
Nebraska 11
South Dakota 7
Montana 7
Utah 6
Hawaii 6
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 2

New York has already passed the highest nations, and New Jersey is in the ball park.

 

[Subduction Zone]

I would love to see just the rates of those that live or commute to New York City. The subways had to be a major cause of spreading the virus. Think of it. An enclosed tube with people crammed in it. I cannot think of a better environment for spreading the disease.

 

[whatbogsends]

Yes, we are past 25K deaths in the US. But the point is that we're nowhere near the 200,000 - 2,000,000 figure that others have suggested:

US may become virus epicentre

In many countries, current social isolation measures will expire by 5/11 or 5/12. I hope by then that at least some of the measures will be lifted.

I agree that we're not tracking anywhere near the 2 million mark (or even half of that). I think those figures were worst case projections with no significant action taken. I don't think we'll even approach 200K as long as we take a sensible course of action.

I'm certainly not an authority, but I would think the numbers are looking like 60-120K in the US, and obviously, i'm hoping it's even lower than that.