CDC updates guidance, recommends vaccinated people wear masks indoors in certain areas

probinson

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Sorry, but that's quite wrong. You can read the citations for the studies they were using here: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). I think it's references 40-44 and 46. Look up the studies yourself and see when the data was collected.

You're missing the point; the CDC has lost my trust. They've also lost quite a bit of trust amongst the population, and even healthcare professionals. Fully 77% of doctors and nurses say their level of trust in the CDC and FDA has declined throughout the pandemic;

Poll Finds Public Health Has A Trust Problem

Trust in CDC, FDA Took a Beating During Pandemic

My theory is that you are slandering people you know nothing about. Why you're doing this I don't know, but it's not a good use of your time.

You're entitled to that opinion. But if the CDC wants to be effective, they need trust, which they don't have. See the "noble lie" article I posted earlier.

And I am absolutely certain that I am in a better position to judge which are rubbish and which aren't.
Of course you are.
 
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FireDragon76

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Looks like it's time for a history lesson.
Pelosi visited Chinatown and encouraged others to do so. This was reported on February 24th, 2020.

"Pelosi was critical of the President's proposal to cut $1 billion out of the CDC's budget at a stressful time as coronavirus containment efforts are underway. However, she expressed confidence in federal health leaders.

"I trust Dr. Fauci at the National Institutes of Health, and he seems to have confidence in what we are doing," she said.

The Speaker says there's no reason for people to live in fear."
Coronavirus concerns: Speaker Pelosi tours San Francisco's Chinatown to show it's safe


Now let's take a look at what happened prior to this.
DEC. 31

Chinese authorities treated dozens of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.
On Dec. 31, the government in Wuhan, China, confirmed that health authorities were treating dozens of cases. Days later, researchers in China identified a new virus that had infected dozens of people in Asia. At the time, there was no evidence that the virus was readily spread by humans. Health officials in China said they were monitoring it to prevent the outbreak from developing into something more severe.

first known death from an illness caused by the virus, which had infected dozens of people. The 61-year-old man who died was a regular customer at the market in Wuhan. The report of his death came just before one of China’s biggest holidays, when hundreds of millions of people travel across the country.

JAN. 20

Other countries, including the United States, confirmed cases.
The first confirmed cases outside mainland China occurred in Japan, South Korea and Thailand, according to the W.H.O.’s first situation report. The first confirmed case in the United States came the next day in Washington State, where a man in his 30s developed symptoms after returning from a trip to Wuhan.

JAN. 23

Wuhan, a city of more than 11 million, was cut off by the Chinese authorities.

merlin_168335142_4eca1f21-e21b-4b97-8b87-dad2489ee05b-articleLarge.jpg



Chinese authorities suspended buses, subways and ferries within the city of Wuhan, pictured here Feb. 3.Credit...Getty Images
The Chinese authorities closed off Wuhan by canceling planes and trains leaving the city, and suspending buses, subways and ferries within it. At this point, at least 17 people had died and more than 570 others had been infected, including in Taiwan, Japan, Thailand, South Korea and the United States.

JAN. 30

The W.H.O. declared a global health emergency.
Amid thousands of new cases in China, a “public health emergency of international concern” was officially declared by the W.H.O. China’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said that it would continue to work with the W.H.O. and other countries to protect public health, and the U.S. State Department warned travelers to avoid China.

suspended entry into the United States by any foreign nationals who had traveled to China in the past 14 days, excluding the immediate family members of American citizens or permanent residents. By this date, 213 people had died and nearly 9,800 had been infected worldwide.

FEB. 2

The first coronavirus death was reported outside China.
A 44-year-old man in the Philippines died after being infected, officials said, the first death reported outside China. By this point, more than 360 people had died.

FEB. 7

A Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm died.
Dr. Li Wenliang, a Chinese doctor, died after contracting the coronavirus, he was hailed as a hero by many for trying to ring early alarms that infections could spin out of control.

In early January, the authorities reprimanded him, and he was forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning Dr. Li’s death provoked anger and frustration at how the Chinese government mishandled the situation.

FEB. 11

The disease the virus causes was named.
The W.H.O. proposed an official name for the disease the virus causes: Covid-19, an acronym that stands for coronavirus disease 2019. The name makes no reference to any of the people, places, or animals associated with the coronavirus, given the goal to avoid stigma.

died on Feb. 14 at a hospital in Paris, in what was the first coronavirus death outside Asia, the authorities said. It was the fourth death from the virus outside mainland China, where about 1,500 people had died, most of them in Hubei Province.

A Timeline of the Coronavirus Pandemic

There is no evidence that COVID-19 came to the US through SF's Chinatown. The earliest documented cases happened in the Pacific Northwest, not San Francisco.
 
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sfs

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You're missing the point
No, I was correcting an error. An error which you made denying that you'd made an earlier error. Your own credibility is not rising here.
Of course you are.
Well, yeah, I am. Someone who peer reviews articles in a field is in a better position to judge the quality of preprints in that field that someone who knows nothing about the subject.
 
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probinson

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I hope you’re right. That’s not what the models are showing. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) The IHME forecast is particularly sobering, though I’m not sure how much weight to put on it. They show cases growing over the fall to where they were in the Spring.

The CDC could put random numbers on a dartboard and toss darts blindfolded in the dark over their shoulder and come up with a more accurate prediction.

These models have been demonstrably wrong, repeatedly. The most recent example was when they predicted 100,000 cases/day in the UK by August. There's a thread on here about that. Cases peaked at 47,723 on July 21. Then experts predicted that it was too soon for Freedom Day, and that the lifting of the restrictions in the UK would be catastrophic. The media howled about the deaths that would ensue. But in reality cases (and deaths, and hospitalizations) have been on an almost vertical downward decline;

Screen Shot 2021-07-28 at 9.27.02 PM.png
 
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GreatLakes4Ever

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The CDC could put random numbers on a dartboard and toss darts blindfolded in the dark over their shoulder and come up with a more accurate prediction.

These models have been demonstrably wrong, repeatedly. The most recent example was when they predicted 100,000 cases/day in the UK by August. There's a thread on here about that. Cases peaked at 47,723 on July 21. Then experts predicted that it was too soon for Freedom Day, and that the lifting of the restrictions in the UK would be catastrophic. The media howled about the deaths that would ensue. But in reality cases (and deaths, and hospitalizations) have been on an almost vertical downward decline;

View attachment 303311

Where did the CDC make the prediction that the United Kingdom was going to hit 100,000 cases a day?
 
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sfs

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These models have been demonstrably wrong, repeatedly.
Agreed. The modeling has often been highly inaccurate, despite lots of smart people all over the place trying to get it right. This pandemic has behaved in ways that are not well understood by anyone.
 
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Sparagmos

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Based on a lot of what was said before surrounding masks, their main objective was to stop the wearer from spreading to someone else:

Per NPR:
CDC cited evidence that the coronavirus could be transmitted by asymptomatic people who might not be aware of their infectiousness – a group estimated to account for more than 50% of transmissions. The agency said masks were intended to block virus-laden particles that might be emitted by an infected person.

In a report updated Tuesday, the CDC says that is still the primary intention of wearing masks. But it also cites growing evidence that even cloth masks can also reduce the amount of infectious droplets inhaled by the wearer.



So, when you boil it down, I as a vaccinated person, wearing a mask, primarily is for the benefit of protecting others. If an infected anti-vaxxer coughs near me, chances are I won't get infected, and even if I did, it'd be mild.

If I as a vaccinated person, am an asymptomatic carrier, and exhale near another person who did the right thing and got vaccinated, chanced are, they won't get infected. The only people who would be at risk from me being an asymptomatic carrier (which as a vaccinated person, is already statistically unlikely) would be people who've willfully refused the vaccine...

No matter which way you slice it, making every vaccinated person alter their behavior is for the benefit (and it's only a tiny benefit, given that most of us who are vaccinated aren't going to catch this thing anyway) of anti-vaxxers who literally mock us for doing the right thing.
I agree that we are primarily protecting the unvaccinated when we the vaccinated wear masks, but in the longer term we will likely need to get boosters to protect ourselves from variants that come about due to the unvaccinated getting sick and allowing the virus to mutate. And if we have to go through another lockdown, we all suffer. Hospital workers suffer and the people working in restaurant and hospitality /travel industries suffer. Then of course there are unvaccinated children…We’re all in this together. It’s truly infuriating how selfish some people are being right now.
 
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probinson

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Well, yeah, I am. Someone who peer reviews articles in a field is in a better position to judge the quality of preprints in that field that someone who knows nothing about the subject.

I see your argumentum ad verecundiam is well underway...

“One of the great commandments of science is, "Mistrust arguments from authority." (Scientists, being primates, and thus given to dominance hierarchies, of course do not always follow this commandment.) Too many such arguments have proved too painfully wrong. Authorities must prove their contentions like everybody else. This independence of science, its occasional unwillingness to accept conventional wisdom, makes it dangerous to doctrines less self critical, or with pretensions of certitude.”

- Carl Sagan
 
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loveofourlord

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You need to explore the significance of "viral dose."

Viral dose is how much virus someone is exposed to when they are infected. Viral load is the amount of virus produced in someone's body after they are infected. Persons who suffered a high initial viral dose experience much more severe symptoms.

Pretty easy to understand, it's it's a army of 100 vs army of 100k which is your body going to do better against.
 
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probinson

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Agreed. The modeling has often been highly inaccurate, despite lots of smart people all over the place trying to get it right. This pandemic has behaved in ways that are not well understood by anyone.

And yet, we continue to pretend like the models are predictive of the future, when not one of them has been.
 
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ThisIsMe123

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I think there is a heck of a lot more delta variant circulating in the US than whenever the data was collected that Fauci was relying on.

ETA: and not just in the US. Here is one of the studies the CDC was relying on; it uses data from January and February of this year. How much delta was in England during those months? Here is another one; the data comes from Israel in late January. Again, no delta.

On top of it being an evolving situation, there's also data lag as well. SO it's hard to compensate for the lag.
 
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loveofourlord

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That's because the whole "why someone should fear CHINA town" narrative is one you just made up. My post showed the progression of Covid in the months leading up to Pelosi's little stunt, and why it was foolish grandstanding (and hypocrisy) on her part.

There is no reason to bring up china town, but to imply racistly that Chinese are the source of the virus everywhere, and that we should fear them. It's a racist talking point, there was no reason to think someone in china town in America was going to make you sick with covid, just STOP WITH THE RACISM.
 
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ThisIsMe123

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Wait. That article is a preprint, and carries the disclaimer; This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

I've been told on this very forum when I've posted preprint studies that preprints can't be relied upon since they've not been peer-reviewed. However to be fair, I think this is my first interaction with you on these forums, so I want to clarify your position... are preprints OK for citing evidence?

Pre-prints are what they are at face value and the only thing we can go off of for now. I watch MedCram, and the doctor there that overseas the Covid units in two county hospitals in Calif cited this very article and recited the bolded.
 
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Sparagmos

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That's what we're told. But Sparagmos said, "I will be going back to wearing a mask because a huge number of people are refusing to get vaccinated.", so I thought he meant that he was trying to protect himself against the unvaccinated.
Nope that’s not what I meant. I am wearing a mask to prevent the spread of the virus among unvaccinated people, including children. So that hospital workers don’t have to go through hell again, so that all of my friends in the hospitality industry don’t get laid off again, and to reduce the chance of new variants developing.
 
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There is no evidence that COVID-19 came to the US through SF's Chinatown. The earliest documented cases happened in the Pacific Northwest, not San Francisco.

Good, cuz I never claimed it did.
 
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Halbhh

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Agreed. The modeling has often been highly inaccurate, despite lots of smart people all over the place trying to get it right. This pandemic has behaved in ways that are not well understood by anyone.
Like weather forecasting, often mostly right, sometimes not.
You might like the detailed expertise in the video just above I posted a couple minutes ago.
 
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FireDragon76

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Good, cuz I never claimed it did.

So what is the point? Do you somehow think intensifying stigma against Chinese-Americans would have been a good and proper response?
 
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