Can Herd Immunity Be Reached?

[wing2000]

SOLUTIONS - TWO AMERICAS
In Trump America, let the unvaccinated (including children) congregate wherever they want WITH EACH OTHER. Let them go with other unvaccinated to special cruises, to their own sections at ball games, to their own super-church assemblies, to weddings for the unvaccinated, and wherever else they choose to congregate.

This is happening naturally (not sure if you are suggesting a public policy based on this "solution")

 

[wing2000]

Let's review the data for the county with the most cases (based on population): Chattahoochee County, GA - located southeast of Columbus, GA:

 

[wing2000]

....and the vaccination rate for Chattahoochee County, GA, is shown as less than 23% (less than 13% received at least 1 dose)

https://data.news-leader.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/georgia/chattahoochee-county/13053/

 

[Fantine]

My county has a 28.2% vaccination rate as of yesterday.

My state has a gun ownership rate of about 53%, one of the highest in the country.

They carry their guns all over, fearing danger at every turn, at considerable monetary and, I believe, emotional expense.

But get a widely available shot for free to protect themselves and their families from a more prevalent danger? No way.

This is deeply entrenched delusional thinking.

 

[mark46]

If you check out that video I posted earlier, it explains why you need a vaccination rate at roughly the target for herd immunity to successfully eradicate the disease from the population.

Immunity isn't inherited when new children are born.

With an R0 of 5.7, at least 82% of the population needs to be immune to COVID-19 to stop its transmission through vaccination and herd immunity.

This is really hard to pull off, and even harder when people are actively avoiding the free vaccine.

I'm fine with the 82% estimate as the rate needed.

My point is that this rate should include those vaccinated PLUS those unvaccinated who have already had COVID.

 

[mark46]

This is happening naturally (not sure if you are suggesting a public policy based on this "solution")

There is no downside to having the vaccine, so I am not suggesting any public policy changes. Also, even those "protected" by herd immunity are even better off if they are vaccinated.

The Biden states are very likely to reach herd immunity soon. Vaccinations rates over 70% plus those who have had the disease should do the trick. The only caution is that we make sure that children are vaccinated. My point is one of celebration for the Biden states. The crisis is indeed almost over. There may be need for booster shots if any of the variants turn out to make them necessary, but people in these states will line up to take the boosters.

There is still a serious problem in the Trump states. In the end, this is NOT really a federal problem. The states and their citizens need to decide how long they will choose to risk death and long term disease for themselves, and for those around them. However, the federal government can continue to try to reach those groups that are hesitant.

 

[mama2one]

Won't the latter reach herd immunity by killing a bunch of older folks -

not in our state which breaks down stats
everyone 60 & older has largely been vaccinated
(over 70%)

younger ages, esp 20-29 who believe they're immune/few getting vaccine

 

[DaisyDay]

I don't believe you understand what herd immunity actually means:
: a reduction in the risk of infection with a specific communicable disease (such as measles or influenza) that occurs when a significant proportion of the population has become immune to infection (as because of previous exposure or vaccination) so that susceptible individuals are much less likely to come in contact with infected individuals Merriam-Webster
Far too many people take herd immunity to mean complete immunity for a population which is not true......


The only disease that has been successfully eradicated (TTBOMK) is smallpox and that is only after a many decades long effort against it.

I skipped to the very end of your video looking for the source and did not find any organization that I recognized as authoritative so I just decline to view it. Maybe try something better........

I think it is you who is misunderstanding the point about herd immunity wiping out polio in the USA. The wild virus became extinct here because there were not enough hosts to keep it reproducing. It isn't because everyone became immune to it, but because sufficient numbers did so keeping it from reproducing in our population.

Any unvaccinated people could become a haven for the disease if it were to be reintroduced in the wild.

 

[Fantine]

Polio (also called infantile paralysis) thrived during the Baby Boom years after WWII. When the vaccine was developed the disease was exploding. I know so many of my friends' older siblings who had polio, and my former boss, 5 years older than me, also had polio.

There were millions of children who could have spread the disease.

 

[hedrick]

Consider the self destructive states. Their vaccination rates may only reach 50%. The open question is how many will get COVID, or have already had COVID. In the end (truly the end for many), they may reach hered immunity because enough people get infected.

The one advantage we have is that red states tend to have warmer climates. They also tend to have lower population densities, and aren’t the places where the infection initially entered. These things could counteract their lower vaccination rates.

It’s pretty clear that we aren’t going to get high enough vaccination rates to eliminate the disease. I’ve been watching NJ. We’re already at a lower infection rate than last summer. But it’s clearly not going to go to zero. Maybe 1/4 last summer. For what it’s worth, IHME isn’t projecting a September resurgence, except in a few places. Texas is the one I noticed, and that is small. We’re probably going to have to live with a few hundred deaths per day across the US out of about 153,000 per day.

But there is still enough to leave us at risk for variants. That requires vaccinating not just us, but the third world. It doesn’t look like we have enough manufacturing capacity to do that at the moment from the US and Europe., and I’m not sure they have the capacity to do the vaccinations.

 

[hedrick]

Incidentally, polio has not been eliminated. It is still in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Getting rid of it was a long process, long enough that it could be done by vaccinating children. There you have the advantage that schools can mandate it (indeed it was often done by the schools during the early campaigns) and that it was done before widespread antivax sentiment.

 

[civilwarbuff]

Why would I waste my time providing you with resources if you'll just ignore them? That's not much incentive for me to provide you with any more evidence, is it?

Well, if you would provide a source that speaks from a position of knowledge I would be more than happy to view it but not one that someone is simply trying to make a buck off of.......

 

[Mayzoo]

Probably not.

 

[mark46]

The one advantage we have is that red states tend to have warmer climates. They also tend to have lower population densities, and aren’t the places where the infection initially entered. These things could counteract their lower vaccination rates.
.

The red state advantage involves delaying their next surge. If vaccination rates remain low, and the summer infection rate is low, then the variants will hit with a vengeance in the fall.

 

[hedrick]

The red state advantage involves delaying their next surge. If vaccination rates remain low, and the summer infection rate is low, then the variants will hit with a vengeance in the fall.

That was my conjecture, but IHME's projections don't show it. I guess variants could change that. IHME seems to use an optimistic assumption about variants.

 

[mark46]

That was my conjecture, but IHME's projections don't show it. I guess variants could change that.

I agree that for the next few months, the red states should be in good shape.

The open question is what the situation will be in late fall.

 

[hedrick]

oops. This posting was confused.

 

[Landon Caeli]

The red state advantage involves delaying their next surge. If vaccination rates remain low, and the summer infection rate is low, then the variants will hit with a vengeance in the fall.

So far, no variant has been successful in bypassing the vaccine.

 

[hedrick]

So far, no variant has been successful in bypassing the vaccine.

The concern is that red states don't have enough vaccinations to prevent a surge. It's a danger, but I don't claim to know whether it will actually happen.

 

[Landon Caeli]

The concern is that red states don't have enough vaccinations to prevent a surge. It's a danger, but I don't claim to know whether it will actually happen.

I see now.