You may well be correct; we seem to be talking past each other. I have no idea why you have suddenly introduced the idea of human life. Only if we have just about everything wrong about abiogenesis and evolution could there be human life anywhere else in the universe.
Now I need to ask, for I am at a loss, why are you even asking that question?
Ok .. so I tracked back to
post#50 where your objection started and my prior post was talking about 'human life'. Coming clean, human life has clearly defined (geo)physical boundaries within which it can exist. However, my post #49 should be taken in the context of intelligent life (human-
like life) developing from scratch on another world.
Now that you have also clarified what you mean by 'alien life', I think this conversation will be a lot clearer going forward. There are many, many different interpretations of these exo-biology terms, most of which I have I have encountered in other forums.
Thank you for clarifying yours.
Ophiolite said:
I'm not sure what you are referring to here. My starting point was, and remains, suggesting opinions alone lie at the heart of the speculations [concerning the probability of alien life] is seriously misleading.
Ok got it .. paraphrasing in the hope of getting clear here: I understand that your objection is that because you can point to other objectively tested aspects relating to the clearly defined physical boundaries within which the existence of earth-life (and its development) are constrained, (eg: the Drake parameters), you feel that your speculations about 'the probability of alien life', are not solely opinion based, yes?
Ophiolite said:
I;ve read an re-read this multiple times and it still doesn't make any sense to me. Can you rephrase?
You have now given your definition of what you mean by 'alien life'. I now verify that its functioning as a living entity is entirely based on your opinion. Eg: there is no objective evidence that a hypothetical non-carbon based life form can meet the criteria used in diagnosing life .. there is not even any theoretical explanation of how it could. In fact, all of the parts following your
'not necessarily' qualifiers fall into this same category for the same reason. I am thus justified in rephrasing it by deleting them, as follows:
"Alien life is some form of life, external to the Earth, probably, carbon based; probably, based on a planet or moon; probably, using water as a solvent; probably, cellular; possibly, complex; perhaps occasionally sentient; rarely, perhaps never, sentient".
Now show me how the above does
not describe earth-life to a tee?
The point here is that the only difference between your description of 'alien-life' and 'earth-life' is the opinion that other forms can function the same as life as we know it. Ie: the
opinion about that using the lacking-in-objectively or even theoretically evidenced words following the
'not necessarily' phrase.
Ophiolite said:
You may define a speculation that way. I see a speculation as a reasoned estimate of possibilities, based upon available information.
The 'reasoned estimate' is either; not objectively based, or contextually relevant or theoretically supported. The
reasoning therefore makes no difference.
Ophiolite said:
There are mountains of verified objective evidence that I have previously given you broad examples of.
They have not been shown to be contextually relevant other than in the singular instance of earth-life and its evolutionary history. They are therefore not relevant to a beyond earth context unless you can cite evidence of that. Any predictions made from any hypotheses developed from such an unconstrained definition are, at best, under test as we explore other worlds (either remotely via observations or by direct sampling).
You need to understand that
the context of evidence is of
primary importance in the topic of exo-life and until any hypothesis is tested in that context, they remain as
opinions under test (and not more than that). You can append any 'probability estimate' you like .. it will not change the scientific status of that piece of data .. only the presentation of independently verifiable, objectively tested results can do that.
Ophiolite said:
If you genuinely think that, for example, we do not have an excellent fix on the life cycle of stars, then we are probably wasting each others time.
I have no problems with what Astrophysics has to say about the life cycle of stars. I also have no problems recognising its relevance to the sustained survival of developing earth-life and its use for establishing constraints around that in the search for other instances of earth-like life.
I have no idea about what it means as far as the opinion based part of your 'alien life' definition.
Ophiolite said:
Nonsense. We have no reason whatsoever to think that chemistry and physics operate differently in the rest of the universe from the Earth and plenty of reasons to think that they do.
That's not in dispute.
You have not demonstrated the vastly non-linear impacts of organic chemistry impacts on pre-biotic chemistry and its high dependency on physical environment conditions. We already know that life doesn't happen by a 'shake and bake' predetermined mechanism, and so your pointing to the indisputable relevance of the principles of chemistry and physics, still leaves an abundance of missing knowledge that, I argue, is necessary for making accuracte predictions (and so do Astrobiologists and Evolutionary Biologists).
Ophiolite said:
This has been multiply affirmed so that it is simply not in doubt. Again, if you think otherwise you are so outside the realms of conventional science that further discussion is unlikely to be of value.
You can certainly choose run away from the issue that way, but doing so won't cover up the missing context about how all that is able to make accurately relevant predictions for the vaious hypotheses under test in the search for exo-life.
Your
'multiply affirmed' reference is just more opinion that adds precisely zip weight to your case.
Ophiolite said:
If you don't mind me asking it would be helpful to know the extent of your science education. It might help me to better formulate my replies.
Helpful to you or not, I recommend your going ahead and making your formulations as a way of determining that .. my background in applicable formal science education and professional experience in the area won't limit any discussions you may choose ... and I'll not let you attempt escape on that basis, that easily.
Ophiolite said:
The Drake equation, for example. I presumed that anyone so passionate on the topic of alien life would automatically be familiar with it.
The Drake equation is a tool for distinguishing the constraints under consideration. I'm pretty sure you're also aware of the issues around determining its values, too(?)
What isn't clear at this point, is your awareness of the impact of adding more terms to the right hand side, on its product (the left hand side).
Ophiolite said:
I understand the words, but I don't grasp your point.
The point is that 'numbers arguments' which include 'probabilty discussions', result in the same inescapable conclusion as far as the 'likelihood' (or otherwise) of the existence of alien life .. Ie:
unknown.
Ophiolite said:
Why would I mean that?
At meeting ten or twenty years ago at an Astrobiology Conference the participants were asked to submit a definition of life. That produced over one hundred definitions. I'm not going to give a definition here, but will if pressed.
Alien life is some form of life, external to the Earth, probably, but not necessarily carbon based; probably, but not necessarily based on a planet or moon; probably, but not necessarily using water as a solvent; probably, but not necessarily cellular; possibly, but not necessarily complex; perhaps occasionally sentient; rarely, perhaps never, sentient.
As discussed above, the notions expressed following the phrase
'not necessarily' are unconstrained by contextually relevant test data and incomplete theoretical models. Their inclusion only serves to support either: a philosophically held belief on the topic, or as a reminder about our current state of knowledge (ie: unknown).
Ophiolite said:
Earth life is found on Earth, evolved there, reproduces there and is largely restricted to there currently.
Agreed.
Ophiolite said:
Alien life is to be found elsewhere if it exists,
.. an assertion which is entirely dependent on the word meaning of 'alien' in the phrase: 'alien life' .. and not on any contextually relevant objective evidence.
Ophiolite said:
which seems highly probable.
'Seems' denotes
an opinion .. (Count 'one' datapoint supporting my assertions .. passing one test in fine style).
Ophiolite said:
On a roulette wheel the probability that the number 7 will turn up on one roll of the wheel is 1 in 37 (38, I think on American wheel which has both 0 and 00). That is an objective reality, yet it is "only" a probability.
And so(?) ...
We already can observe that the wheel had 37 (38) numbers on it .. We don't have a clue as to how many planets/moons in the universe have life on them .. oh hang on, yes we do .. its "1" so we know the numerator of your probability figure ... but not the denominator ..
Ophiolite said:
I don't wish to have to keep repeating this: the belief does not require analysis and data; determination of probabilities does.
.. and the probability as shown immediately above, requires contextually relevant knowledge of the parent population .. which we don't have.
Ophiolite said:
1. Then better tell that to the hundreds of astrobiologists engaged in research globally.
Hundreds of astrobiologists are also humans and are entitled to their opinions .. some of them (maybe hundreds) turn their opinions into contextually relevant testable hypotheses/predictions.
None of that matters to science's objective reality until we have the results of those tests.
Ophiolite said:
2. You claim an argument based upon data from astronomy, cosmology, astrophysics, geochemistry, palaeontology, biology, genetics, biochemistry, astrochemistry, geology, etc is not scientific. Good luck with that.
Those topics have their own clearly defined contexts. Astrobiology's contexts are largely philosophically based and rely on commonly held beliefs (or opinions).
Ophiolite said:
1. I have not demonstrated it to your satisfaction.
In this topic, (and particularly in this forum), I see a need for a crystal clear view for tracking the impacts of Astrobiology's philosophically held tenets, on its outputs. The field is quite unlike Astrophysics, Physics, Chemistry, etc in this regard.
Ophiolite said:
2. I have made no claim that alien life exists. You seem to conflate an assertion that we can calculate a probability that alien life may exist with an assertion that alien life does exist.
One cannot calculate a probability that carries any physical significance with only one datapoint (earth life, in an earth context).
You can, of course, go on to believe in
the opinion that one
can do this however.
Ophiolite said:
Thank you for your lengthy and detailed reply.
I have much to say on this topic (and it tests out well in thousands of posts elsewhere, with other minds also similarly engaged on it).
My conclusion is that it is one of the most confused topics currently engaged by science.
I'm quite happy to challenge peer reviewed publications on Astrobiology .. so I have no qualms in challenging apparent 'authority figures', as they are quite open in accepting such challenges.
I find it deeply concerning when I see the set of religious folk here, who recognise their beliefs as being beliefs, being pummelled by a false front (a 'sciency looking' barrage), from those who don't (or can't) distinguish their own beliefs in what they say ..
(I am not in any way implying that you do this .. in any way shape or form .. quite the opposite, in fact .. ie: I respect the general quality of your posts in this forum .. we may disagree on this particular topic .. and that's ok by me to leave it that way, if either of us so choose. I mean after all, 'Alien life' is hardly high on the mission critical topics list around these parts, eh? ..

).