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Actually,the world isn't warming

CACTUSJACKmankin

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AGW is not the only theory about GW in the scientific community you know. I just don't think we have to be lock step without questioning AGW. If Agw is correct it should be able to stand up to pressure.



Not to mention the impact on the worlds economy
I do not ever suggest that we eat what we are fed. it's not to beat you down. it is meant to make you think why the consensus is the way it is and why scientists are so sure. the consensus is there for a reason. why do the experts disagree with you?
 
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Greatcloud

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I have talked about solar causation extensively, also I touched on CRT. There are many qualified scientists who feel AGW is a big swindle;if you don't know that then I refuse to answer you.

Why has nobody/you not answered the information I posted on water vapor ?

None of the past climate changes can be traced to CO2 when you go back 250,000 years.

Here is a small movie with nothing but scientists communicating to the public what they see as the truth. Apologize this is only part 1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzSzItt6h-s
You must agree these are just scientists in this film, and certainly not kooks.

You have to agree there is a scientific dissenting opinion or we can't talk at all.

Here is some of what I believe:

1) There was a MWP and it was just as hot or hotter then the modern WP.
2)Cosmic ray theory is a very good explanation for warming/cooling.
3)The satellite temperature data is more accurate then base stations.
4)Many signs currently point to a coming minimum we may be in one.
5)The Sun is the primary driver of temperatures in GW or cooling.
stretchingtruth.jpg


This is a forum for free expression and we must respect that.
 
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Deamiter

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I have talked about solar causation extensively, also I touched on CRT. There are many qualified scientists who feel AGW is a big swindle;if you don't know that then I refuse to answer you.
I showed how solar effects are ten times less significant as greenhouse gasses added in the last few hundred years. I showed you how there is no physical model of CRT. You're taking a weak correlation and claiming it's evidence of causation where most climate scientists take hard physics, use that physics to create models that accurately reproduce past conditions and using THAT as evidence of causation.
Why has nobody/you not answered the information I posted on water vapor ?
That H2O is a greenhouse is common knowledge. It's very well understood and included in all appropriate atmospheric climate models. Of course, it's been shown that it CANNOT account for past or current climate change without taking other greenhouse gasses into account. You clearly didn't read the article I've posted twice, so here it is again -- do read it this time. http://www.realclimate.org/index.ph...te-part-ii-courtillots-geomagnetic-excursion/
None of the past climate changes can be traced to CO2 when you go back 250,000 years.
Nonsense -- perhaps you are referencing the fact that warming precedes CO2 increase after ice ages. I discussed this previously when I established that because warming can increase CO2 levels (all climate scientists are aware of this!) does NOT imply in any way that CO2 levels do not also increase temperature! If you're talking about some other random point, do elucidate so we can address that too.
Here is a small movie with nothing but scientists communicating to the public what they see as the truth. Apologize this is only part 1.

You must agree these are just scientists in this film, and certainly not kooks.

You have to agree there is a scientific dissenting opinion or we can't talk at all.
I didn't see most of those talking heads identified so I can't really say, but some of them certainly didn't understand the current state of scientific knowledge! For example, one claimed that because higher temperatures after ice ages preceds CO2 increase, CO2 increase cannot lead to higher temperature. This is a LOGICAL error and CERTAINLY doesn't follow scientifically! Sure, I'll agree that some scientists don't agree, but as they don't have a competing model, just a weak correlation, I disagree that there is actual science dissenting with the AGW conclusion.

Do feel free to show that I'm wrong. So far, you've just posted a bunch of opinion pieces and correlations, but do feel encouraged to show where some models of CRT or really ANY model that reproduces reality without factoring in greenhouse gasses and we can talk about specifics.
Here is some of what I believe:

1) There was a MWP and it was just as hot or hotter then the modern WP.
Absolutely -- I don't know why you'd call this a 'belief' but this is hardly controversial!
2)Cosmic ray theory is a very good explanation for warming/cooling.
Nonsense. There is NO model for how cosmic rays can affect the temperature of the Earth. All you have is a weak correlation between solar activity and temperature -- and the radiative forcing due to the 11 year solar cycle has been mathematically shown to be 10 times less significant as greenhouse gasses. Of course, I might be wrong -- show me a mathematical model (not just a graph, as I'm sure you'll agree that correlation does not equal causation) and we can talk. Again, you didn't read the article I've posted three times now have you? It directly addresses claims about cosmic rays though you've never acknowledged that you've seen it much less understood what's in it!
3)The satellite temperature data is more accurate then base stations.
I think you're quite confused -- base stations will always be able to record their ambient temperature highly accurately -- much better than satellites that rely on noisy radiation passing through absorptive atmosphere! This seems to suggest you don't really understand how temperature is measured! Of course, satellite data has greatly improved climate models by giving a much wider range of measurements than even weather balloons (especially over the oceans) and by helping to separate the effect of cities on local temperature since many 'base stations' have historically been near population centers.
4)Many signs currently point to a coming minimum we may be in one.
I have no idea what a coming minimum is. If you mean temperature minimum, then yes, most scientists think the temperature will rise from here.
5)The Sun is the primary driver of temperatures in GW or cooling.
Nonsense, the solar forcing is ten times less than greenhouse gas effects as I showed in the article now posted three times. Further, it was also pointed out to you that while other planets have warmed slightly with increased solar activity, they have not warmed enough to account for the same relative warming on Earth. In other words, while it is an effect, if it were the primary effect, basic physics says that other planets should have warmed much more than they have.
 
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Gawron

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Posted by Greatcloud:

"The satellite temperature data is more accurate then base stations."

The Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) operating on NOAA polar-orbiting platforms have been the principal sources of satellite temperature profiles for the past two decades, although data has been collected prior to that.

The MSUs are "cross-track scanners with measurements of microwave radiance in four channels ranging from 50.3 to 57.95 GHz on the lower shoulder of the Oxygen absorption band."

These four channels measure the atmospheric temperature in four thick layers spanning the surface through the stratosphere. Here is a chart prepared from the data collected by RSS MSU Satellites:


RSS_L_Trop_2.jpg



Here is another chart on globally averaged trends, which were computed over latitudes from 82.5S to 82.5N, with results shown. This data was compiled to include the time period through August 2008:


Start Time
Stop Time
# Years
Global Trend
white.gif
Channel TLT
1979
2008-08
29
0.169 K/decade
Channel TMT
1979
2008-08
29
0.096 K/decade
Channel TTS
1987
2008-08
21
-0.019 K/decade
Channel TLS
1979
2008-08
29
-0.334 K/decade



The following displays RSS-MSU data for the global average, which is -0.01 degrees C.

29029180iv6.png



And finally, the global warming debate may be the cause of the rise in something else:

"Evidence in increasingly coming to light that disturbing levels of statisics are being released into the media as a direct result of global warming.

Some of these statistics may be linked to factual events, but no proven causal relationship has been demonstrated between the statements themselves, and any particular relevant facts.

A sharp increase in the level of graphics used in the media has also been blamed on the global crisis as has a huge increase in the use of the terms:

"at the current rate of increase...."

"within 25 years we will all be...."



We ARE all doomed............:doh:
 
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Deamiter

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Um... you didn't begin to address the point that temperature readings with high-accuracy thermometers on the ground are going to be more accurate than satellite readings based on interpretation of microwave radiation... I mean seriously, what's with copying and pasting without even ATTEMPTING to add your own comments? Satellites are giving us MUCH more information than we had, not by usurping ground measurements but by removing the limitation of scattered point measurements, largely near population centers.

Want to show that I'm wrong? It's easy, just find the error for high-accuracy thermometers, then find the error in satellite measurements.

As for the media, they do a HORRIBLE job of reporting science! They focus more on how controversial they can be vs. how accurate they can be (controversy sells) and they jump on preliminary publications while ignoring repeatedly verified results. Just last week, realclimate.org put out an article largely lamenting scientists' failure to communicate with the public:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/09/how-much-will-sea-level-rise/
Thus, this media reporting stands as a classic example of how scientists get caught up trying to counter supposed myths but end up perpetuating others, and miss an opportunity to actually educate the public. The problem is not that people think that we will get 6 meters of sea level rise this century, it's that they don't think there'll be anything to speak of. Headlines like that in the Reuters piece (or National Geographic) are therefore doing a fundamental disservice to the public understanding of the problem.
You ever going to read and respond to the actual science with which I've been responding rather than simply finding more half-related websites/comics to paste in while repeating your claims without addressing the details I put a lot of work into posting?
 
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Deamiter

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Oh, and stealing content without adding citations is plagiarism and dishonest. Stop stealing other peoples' work and cite your sources. Do feel free to USE outside sources, just quote small bits to SUPPORT your point rather than stealing other peoples' articles AS your point. It's a DISCUSSION board after all, not a forum for collecting other peoples' work!
 
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Deamiter

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Oh, and as for that graph you pasted without reference, you do realize that current cool temperatures are a result of la nina just as the high 1998 temperatures were a result of el nino right? Of course 70% of the energy absorbed by the Earth goes into the oceans so these oceanic effects are quite strong in terms of surface temperature, but rather weak in terms of long-term (on the order of a century) temperature trends.
 
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Chalnoth

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I'd like to add that there are now a number of excellent websites where people have gone through a great deal of trouble to debunk the anthropogenic global warming denial arguments. Here are some of them:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/debate/climatechange/summary.asp
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/myths/index.html
http://scholarsandrogues.wordpress....ating-claims-a-reasonably-thorough-debunking/

I rather like the first two.

As for the particular argument used in this thread, well, like most of them it's patently absurd and requires a massive ignorance of basic statistics, as well as ignorance of the physical processes going on in the Earth.

Here's why the claim that we've been cooling since 1998 is specious:
In 1998, we had a massive El Nino event. This event was a change in ocean currents that caused heat to cycle differently, resulting in an overall atmospheric average temperature change. Note that this wasn't an overall change in the heat of the Earth: it was just a transfer of heat between the oceans and the atmosphere. This effect results in a temporary spike in average temperatures, but has very little effect on global warming.

The reason it doesn't have an effect on global warming is that global warming depends upon the total heat input of the Earth being greater than the total heat output. Simply shuffling the heat around within the Earth doesn't affect the heat input/output by much.

Now, this last year, we had the exact opposite event: a La Nina. This event is the precise opposite of an El Nino event, and results in more heat being put into the oceans, and less in the atmosphere. Once again, the average heat inflow/outflow for the Earth as a whole isn't changed by much.

Therefore, if you're going to attempt to answer the question, "Is the Earth warming?" you have to correct for the effects of these single-year temperature spikes (positive and negative) from events like El Nino and La Nina. Do that, and you find that indeed, it's still warming.
 
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Gawron

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This is exactly why I hesitate to post on this forum anywhere, the typical brainless knee-jerk response of the "enlightened ones" to anyone who post anything which does not agree with what the "enlightened ones" say.

Posted as a brainless knee-jerk response:

"Oh, and stealing content without adding citations is plagiarism and dishonest."

In case you have forgotten how to actually read, I made no claim in my post that these graphs were prepared by me. And to see where they came from all one has to do is click on 'properties' and, low and behold!, there it is!

I also used quotation marks, they look like this " ", by the way, to show where I was quoting.

Then, of course, you attack me for not discussing something I had no intention of nor made no attempt to discuss in that particular post. This is exactly why I did not post a link, because I wasn't attempting to either turn the tide of the debate or challange what anyone had said before. And in case you have forgotten how to read, I wasn't even talking to you. If I had been attempting to respond to something you said earlier in the debate, I would have directed my comments to you. As is, I posted in response to Greatcloud, something which is apparently beyond your comprehension.

"Stop stealing other peoples' work and cite your sources."

I have been at this for a long time Dick (your name is Dick, isn't it?), I know how to post and need no advice or comment from you. I don't really care if this response draws negative repercussions, you accuse someone of stealing you should expect a forceful response.
 
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Deamiter

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This is exactly why I hesitate to post on this forum anywhere, the typical brainless knee-jerk response of the "enlightened ones" to anyone who post anything which does not agree with what the "enlightened ones" say.
Brainless? I've put a couple of hours of research into actual journal articles to make sure I'm getting my details right just for this thread, and that's beyond my usual reading... and you call it brainless because I agree with the vast majority of scientists? *sigh*

Posted as a brainless knee-jerk response:

"Oh, and stealing content without adding citations is plagiarism and dishonest."

In case you have forgotten how to actually read, I made no claim in my post that these graphs were prepared by me. And to see where they came from all one has to do is click on 'properties' and, low and behold!, there it is!
That you didn't specifically claim authorship is immaterial -- copying somebody else's work without attribution is a violation of copyright law and thus a violation of the board's rules. When you post something it is ASSUMED that you wrote it unless you note otherwise. At least according to US copyright law which is repeated by board rules.

Further, I assumed you had moved posted pictures to the CF servers -- just posting links to the pictures is largely considered theft of bandwidth! Essentially, you're eating up the bandwidth of whatever site you stole the pictures from by forcing them to pay for the bandwidth every time somebody sees this CF thread. To be kind, you should either upload the picture to your own free site (like image shack) or to CF servers instead of forcing the original authors to pay for your use of bandwidth.

I also used quotation marks, they look like this " ", by the way, to show where I was quoting.
Not always, and it's still not clear who wrote what unless you clearly attribute a source.
Then, of course, you attack me for not discussing something I had no intention of nor made no attempt to discuss in that particular post. This is exactly why I did not post a link, because I wasn't attempting to either turn the tide of the debate or challange what anyone had said before. And in case you have forgotten how to read, I wasn't even talking to you. If I had been attempting to respond to something you said earlier in the debate, I would have directed my comments to you. As is, I posted in response to Greatcloud, something which is apparently beyond your comprehension.
Oh, lol. I was under the impression that you WERE Greatcloud because you said "posted by greatcloud" rather than using quote tags. Sorry for the confusion, I thought it was weird that you were responding through another avatar (though I've seen it done before -- it's not unheard of) but your MO of copying and pasting other peoples' work without attribution and making it rather unclear which content is yours is quite similar to Greatcloud's.

Again, please forgive me for my misunderstanding. It might not be entirely BEYOND my comprehension, but it certainly ESCAPED my comprehension!
"Stop stealing other peoples' work and cite your sources."

I have been at this for a long time Dick (your name is Dick, isn't it?)
Um no? Should it be? I've been called Fred in many contexts, but that isn't my real name either. You can call me Deamiter (or Dick, that's good too).
, I know how to post and need no advice or comment from you. I don't really care if this response draws negative repercussions, you accuse someone of stealing you should expect a forceful response.
Um... copying somebody else's work without attribution violates copyright law and thus violates the rules of the board. Apparently they got rid of the rule against stealing bandwidth (and no, I'm not sure it has precedent in court) but it's sure disrespectful! Don't believe me? Here's one of MANY articles on the subject found via a famous search engine:
http://www.tipz.net/Bandwidth.htm
 
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TemperateSeaIsland

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Further, I assumed you had moved posted pictures to the CF servers -- just posting links to the pictures is largely considered theft of bandwidth! Essentially, you're eating up the bandwidth of whatever site you stole the pictures from by forcing them to pay for the bandwidth every time somebody sees this CF thread. To be kind, you should either upload the picture to your own free site (like image shack) or to CF servers instead of forcing the original authors to pay for your use of bandwidth.

Another consequence of copying directly from another site is that when they notice the the image may be taken down. I've also seen cases of the the original image being replaced by porn to discourage copying.
 
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Greatcloud

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Some questions:

1) There have been warmings in the modern past that had no burning fossil fuels. What caused these WP such as the MWP ?

2) Antarctica is gaining ice and staying cold, why ?

3) So what if all the ice around the north pole melted what effect would it have ?

4) Why have we not seen the disasters predicted because of GW ?

gwinquisitionpanel.jpg
 
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Chalnoth

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Some questions:

1) There have been warmings in the modern past that had no burning fossil fuels. What caused these WP such as the MWP ?
Like what?

2) Antarctica is gaining ice and staying cold, why ?
While the Eastern ice shelf in Antarctica is gaining some ice, this is more than offset by the loss in ice in the Western shelf. Measurements of the overall mass of the Antarctic ice attest to this:
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg18925424.700

The cooling of the Antarctic plateau is a local weather phenomenon. Nobody expects a global increase in average temperatures to be mirrored in an increase in temperature everywhere. In this case it happens to be the hole in the ozone that is causing the cooling of the Antarctic plateau:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/296/5569/895

3) So what if all the ice around the north pole melted what effect would it have ?
Well, besides the fact that polar bears will have a hard time surviving, the primary problem will be the difference in surface albedo: sea water doesn't reflect as much sunlight as ice. This means that instead of being reflected back off into space, more sunlight in the arctic during the summer months will be absorbed by the sea, which accelerates the warming in that region. This is most worrying for Greenland, which is melting at an extraordinary rate.

4) Why have we not seen the disasters predicted because of GW ?
Because most of them haven't been predicted to occur for a few decades yet, some for a couple of centuries. But we've already seen one effect: the strengthening of hurricanes. While global warming doesn't make hurricanes more frequent, it does tend to make them stronger. And hurricanes of recent years have been much, much stronger than they were fifty years ago.
 
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Deamiter

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Some questions:

1) There have been warmings in the modern past that had no burning fossil fuels. What caused these WP such as the MWP ?
Despite some rather amazing records of local temperature variation (in England for example), warming in the medieval period was actually rather mild compared to current levels and was largely limited to the northern hemisphere. Given the small overall deviation in European temperatures especially as reconstructed in more recent years, it's likely that there was significant oceanic forcing as well as
2) Antarctica is gaining ice and staying cold, why ?
Good question. Most global climate models predict that the arctic will warm much faster than the antarctic. One reason is that there is more land in the northern hemisphere which releases absorbed energy directly into the atmosphere rather than 'storing' it in subsurface layers pretty quickly. It also takes a LONG time for heat to make it from the northern hemisphere to the southern through the oceans! Finally, the circumpolar current buffers the antarctic from tropical heat but there is no analogous buffer in the northern hemisphere.

Eventually the antarctic will exhibit 'polar amplification' of global warming, but it will take much longer than in the arctic.
3) So what if all the ice around the north pole melted what effect would it have ?
The primary effect would be increased heat absorption on the planet as ice reflects MUCH more energy compared to water.
4) Why have we not seen the disasters predicted because of GW ?
You'd have to be more specific, especially with sources of these predictions. There are certainly many mainstream media reports that report limits (i.e. if somebody claimed that the next century's sea level rise will be within 60cm and 3 meters, you might see a news reporter claiming that 3 meters was predicted even though it was presented as highly unlikely). I'd prefer to discuss specific predictions from specific sources than trying to guess to which you are refering. In short, it might well be because most climate predictions are on the order of decades to centuries and good data like ice cores and coral cores have only really become widely available from which to construct accurate models within the last few decades.
 
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Chalnoth

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Despite some rather amazing records of local temperature variation (in England for example), warming in the medieval period was actually rather mild compared to current levels and was largely limited to the northern hemisphere. Given the small overall deviation in European temperatures especially as reconstructed in more recent years, it's likely that there was significant oceanic forcing as well as
The more severe distinction is the cause: the medieval warm period was caused by changes in solar input to the Earth. There is no such change in solar input that could have caused the recent warming.
 
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Greatcloud

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http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ANURGENTSIGNALFORTHECOMINGICEAGE.pdf

The first part of this PDF file is hard to understand but scroll down, I read the whole thing myself.

Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor

I urge you to read the above file hailing the Sun as the primary driver of climate change.

What we have now in between cycle 23 and 24 has not been seen in 100 years. We went a whole month without any sunspots. We could be in another LIA......and we are not ready for it. I predict in the months ahead GC will be all over the news,for the sake of saving lives during the severe cold.


foulweather.jpg


winterblunder.jpg



:bow: CO2
 
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Chalnoth

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http://icecap.us/images/uploads/ANURGENTSIGNALFORTHECOMINGICEAGE.pdf

The first part of this PDF file is hard to understand but scroll down, I read the whole thing myself.

Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor

I urge you to read the above file hailing the Sun as the primary driver of climate change.
Then why has solar irradiance been nearly constant for the past 70 years, while the temperature has increased significantly for the past 40 of those years?
 
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thaumaturgy

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This bit is funny. Do you know why CO[sub]2[/sub] is so important to the greenhouse gas controversy?

1. It is a known greenhouse gas. It absorbs radiation in the Infrared Region. (INFO)

2. It has an extremely long residence time in the atmosphere (SOURCE)

3. We know from recent isotopic analyses of the CO2 run-up in the atmosphere that we humans are directly responsible for a large amount of the relative increase. The big jump in CO2 in the atmosphere is accompanied by a lot of C that is depleted in [sup]14[/sup]C, a good sign of fossil fuel burning. (SOURCE)

So if you find something funny about CO2, perhaps you should share it with the class!
 
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