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A Straightforward Understanding

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by mark46, Feb 16, 2020.

  1. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    Sanders will not win the nomination with 40% of the delegates.
     
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  2. com7fy8

    com7fy8 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    If someone else had twenty percent, while another had thirty percent, then Bernie could win with forty percent, couldn't he?
     
  3. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    That is correct because he will have more than 40% of the delegates.
     
  4. Desk trauma

    Desk trauma Atheist Capitalist Supporter

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    What crystal ball is giving you that number?
     
  5. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    No. You need a majority. That's why there are often many rounds of balloting. If you assume that Bernie is seen as different, because he' the only socialist, it's plausible that those who aren't socialists would drop out one by one, and the one remaining would get all of the votes that weren't initially Sanders'. This is surely an oversimplification, but maybe not too much of one.
     
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  6. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    Bernie Sanders is NOT a socialist. He is a Democratic socialist and member of the Liberty Union Party, not the Socialist Party (which never existed here). If he was a socailst we would have to call Elizabeth Warren one too becaues of their similaries. They are just farther left than most Democrats.
     
  7. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    While I agree with your characterization, he calls himself a socialist. I think that will be a big issue in the election, even if he's not actually a socialist in the sense in which the term is used internationally and historically.
     
  8. mark46

    mark46 Well-Known Member Supporter

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    We're finally getting to the nub of the issue. I gave 40% as what I think is a reasonable estimate of the percentage of delegates that Bernie Sanders will ultimately have. He might pick up another 5% on the second ballot from other candidates (like Warren) and from super delegates. However, it seems to me (and many others) that this is the Sanders limit.

    And if Sanders cannot end up with more than 45% of the delegates, he CANNOT, and will not, be nominated.
     
  9. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    Democratic Socialism is socialism. They wish for a democratic transition to a socialistic economy rather than a violent revolution, but the endgame is replacing capitalism.

    Warren favors a regulated free market economy geared towards small businesses. Sanders, in contrast, has in the past advocated for the nationalization of most major industries, which would put him squarely in the socialist category.

    They are not the same.
     
  10. carl_b_me

    carl_b_me Member

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    That's definitely what has happened in most of western Europe! Those "democrat socialist" countries seem to have COMPLETELY forgotten how to make money or run corporations! I had a friend who worked with some folks in Finland at some of their papermills. You couldn't pay me enough to give up my freedom of choice with regards to healthcare and school and stuff.

    Regulations???? Whoa! We can't afford THAT kind of craziness. It will crater the economy. We should really just stick with the pure free market capitalism we have thrived under for the past many generations.

    That sounds scary. Which industries? You mean like utility companies? One of the things I like when I move is taking the time to select my favorite electric company, my favorite gas company and my favorite cable company from the selections. I can't imagine how horrible it would be if we were just stuck with a pre-selected "monopoly" in an area! Yikes!

    I'm a free-marketeer til the day I die! Laissez-Faire Capitalism (I think Laissez-Faire was a famous economist from France)
     
  11. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    In the 1970s Sanders called for nationalizing many major industries, although not the whole economy. I don't think it's clear how far he would currently take that. However his plan for green energy did call for the government to own the next generation of power.

    I really do think Sanders is different than other Democratic candidates, even if he's not a full socialist in the historical sense (and he probably isn't).

    I'd really rather see people who are interested in the left go with Warren, but she doesn't have the rabid following that Sanders does.
     
  12. carl_b_me

    carl_b_me Member

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    YIKES! Imagine if you didn't have a free selection of utility companies when you move to a new town???
     
  13. hedrick

    hedrick Senior Veteran Supporter

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    Right. You can argue that there's no loss to free enterprise in nationalizing industries that are already monopolies. I'm not sure what I think of that argument. At least in the US, governments have a history of being pretty inefficient. It may be that careful regulation is the better approach, but our regulators have a history of being "captured" by the industries they regulate. No really great solution, I'm afraid.
     
  14. Silmarien

    Silmarien Existentialist

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    I don't think there are any democratic socialistic countries in Europe. There's a fair amount of social democracy, but democratic socialism is very different.

    There are definitely democratic socialistic parties in Europe, though, though I'm familiar with Spain rather than Scandinavia.

    I'm assuming this is sarcasm? Impossibly naive libertarianism does exist, but you're laying it on a bit too thick.

    I'm a Warren supporter. I don't identify as a capitalist, but she does, and there's actually a good reason for that. I get annoyed at the constant conflation of the two, since there are significant differences.

    Yes, I am talking about the nationalization of the oil and energy industries. Government control of the means of production is standard in socialistic countries, so if a candidate champions such economic structures, he is a socialist. If he actually identifies as a socialist, I don't understand why anyone would insist that he isn't.

    If this is true, you need to read more about 19th century labor. If it isn't true, I really have no idea how you interpreted a post about the differences between Sanders and Warren as a defense of laissez-faire capitalism. :scratch:
     
  15. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    Bernie calls himself a Democratic socialist. That is where I got the term from. I read on Wikipedia he does not support full-blown socialism, contrary to what many people think.

    I posted in other threads Bernie has the best chance of winning if young than old voters show up.
     
  16. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    I don't need to imagine it. I live it. There are no choices on gas, water, electricity, or cable in my area. So what I want is a new law that ends local monopolies. If Florida was blue I would write about that problem to Tallahassee.
     
  17. Richard T

    Richard T Well-Known Member

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    Since the rules change for each nomination, here is what I found at Democratic National Convention, 2020 - Ballotpedia
    "In 2020, there will be 4,750 delegates: 3,979 pledged delegates and 771 automatic delegates—more commonly known as superdelegates.[3]

    To win the Democratic nomination, a presidential candidate must receive support from a majority of the pledged delegates on the first ballot: 1,991 pledged delegates.[4][5] If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates: more than 2,375 votes."

    Thus, if Bernie has 45% in the first round of balloting, then he would need a larger majority of the Superdelegates to win on a successive ballot. I would expect somewhere down the line that a compromise would be reached and most likely it will not include Bernie since most of these Superdelegates are going to be more mainstream democrats.
     
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  18. carl_b_me

    carl_b_me Member

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    There's only one thing I need to read: The Art of the Deal.

    I just think that ANY mention of ANYONE who wants to put controls of ANY sort on ANY industry or corporation is threatening the very core of America. We've never had that kind of over-regulated economy. We are pure free-market and it's worked so well for us!

    As for the difference between Sanders and Warren, well, it's all angels dancing on the head of a pin because Trump is going to win no matter what. He has the stronger message and the best leadership skills.
     
  19. ChristianForCats

    ChristianForCats Saved by Christ

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    Carl, what makes you think Trump has no chance of losing? There is NO WAY anybody can believe he has ever acted presidential or done his job the way a president is supposed to.
     
  20. Aryeh Jay

    Aryeh Jay Veteran Supporter

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    Amen! That book and the Authorized King James Holy Bible are the only two books anyone need to read these days.
     
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