AI has replaced work for 20% of full-time employees in the U.S., survey says

ThatRobGuy · Apr 9, 2026

AI has replaced work for 20% of full-time employees in the U.S., survey says

The poll from Epoch AI and Ipsos found that AI replaced existing tasks for 20% of full-time workers but created new tasks for 15% of employees who had used AI in the previous week.

www.nbcnews.com

The poll, conducted by Ipsos in partnership with Epoch AI — a leading nonprofit focused on data-driven research about artificial intelligence’s development and impact — surveyed 2,000 American adults about how and when they use AI. While the survey found that AI replaced some tasks at work, 15% of full-time workers said that they had started doing new tasks at work that they wouldn’t have done without AI services, with a plus or minus 2.5% margin of error.

Belk · Apr 9, 2026

The title seems a bit misleading. AI has not replaced work but helped increase workload capacity.

iluvatar5150 · Apr 10, 2026

This doesn't surprise me. I work in an art-related field where most of my colleagues are almost cartoonishly opposed to AI and it's still percolating in for things like transcribing meetings and helping non-engineers write small software tools - both of which would have likely gone un-done in the past. I still haven't used it for more than making funny pictures, but I've been kicking around my own idea for a tool and I'm likely going to lean on AI for generating the code, because it's been 10+ years since I've touched that stuff.

ThatRobGuy · Apr 10, 2026

iluvatar5150 said:
This doesn't surprise me. I work in an art-related field where most of my colleagues are almost cartoonishly opposed to AI and it's still percolating in for things like transcribing meetings and helping non-engineers write small software tools - both of which would have likely gone un-done in the past. I still haven't used it for more than making funny pictures, but I've been kicking around my own idea for a tool and I'm likely going to lean on AI for generating the code, because it's been 10+ years since I've touched that stuff.

I probably shouldn't be saying this (given that it's my field), but non-tech people now have the ability to generate a fully functional website in a matter of a few minutes (perhaps and hour or so it's it's particularly complex and needs some follow up prompting for refinement and tweaks) rather than having pay $80-150/hour to an independent contractor to make a website for them. (for small business owners or online independent sellers) -- and it'll look better than what an actual developer would have been able to make for them 7-8 years ago.

For actual companies (that aren't IT companies, but rather, companies with an IT department), what I envision happening, is that it'll be leveraged in a way such as "well now that we have this thing that can do 20% of your job..." in order to justify pay cuts to save money.

Where I see the industry going as a whole is that having code syntax memorized and being able to conceptualize coding concepts will go by the wayside, and the knowledge of how to prompt/tweak AI generated stuff will be the skillset.

Perhaps not a perfect apples-to-apples, but I think it'll be similar to the transition from older unmanaged code to the newer managed code. (meaning, having to do all of that "fun" stuff like managing memory on the stack and the heap, and having to use pointers and dereferencing)

All that stuff is still being done behind the scenes, but it's not something your average developer has to concern themselves with or be familiar with anymore.

iluvatar5150 · Apr 10, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
I probably shouldn't be saying this (given that it's my field), but non-tech people now have the ability to generate a fully functional website in a matter of a few minutes (perhaps and hour or so it's it's particularly complex and needs some follow up prompting for refinement and tweaks) rather than having pay $80-150/hour to an independent contractor to make a website for them. (for small business owners or online independent sellers) -- and it'll look better than what an actual developer would have been able to make for them 7-8 years ago.

For actual companies (that aren't IT companies, but rather, companies with an IT department), what I envision happening, is that it'll be leveraged in a way such as "well now that we have this thing that can do 20% of your job..." in order to justify pay cuts to save money.

Where I see the industry going as a whole is that having code syntax memorized and being able to conceptualize coding concepts will go by the wayside, and the knowledge of how to prompt/tweak AI generated stuff will be the skillset.

Perhaps not a perfect apples-to-apples, but I think it'll be similar to the transition from older unmanaged code to the newer managed code. (meaning, having to do all of that "fun" stuff like managing memory on the stack and the heap, and having to use pointers and dereferencing)

All that stuff is still being done behind the scenes, but it's not something your average developer has to concern themselves with or be familiar with anymore.

It's definitely going to eat away at the low end of a lot of industries, where noobs would've traditionally cut their teeth. When I talk to college kids about how I got my first job in the industry, I describe the project as having been so on fire that they just threw bodies at it until launch. Five years ago, a decent tools programmer could've automated away 80% of my sub-department from that time. Today, AI could do even more than that. I fully expect the bottom half of voiceover work to be done by robots within a couple years. I don't know why we're not there yet. If LLM's get cheap enough to operate, you could have most tertiary NPC VO written and generated in real-time. In something like GTA, you could have conversations with random hobos for hours.

ThatRobGuy · Apr 10, 2026

iluvatar5150 said:
It's definitely going to eat away at the low end of a lot of industries, where noobs would've traditionally cut their teeth. When I talk to college kids about how I got my first job in the industry, I describe the project as having been so on fire that they just threw bodies at it until launch. Five years ago, a decent tools programmer could've automated away 80% of my sub-department from that time. Today, AI could do even more than that.

I think the role of the DBA (for the uninitiated, Database Administrator) will be the first one that gets completely automated away in the IT realm (although, time could prove me wrong on that)

Simply because that's the one that involves the least "human element".

By human element, I mean things like client preferences and "user experience" aspects.

For example, certain clients (who are just wanting a website to streamline their business or get a more public facing, visible presence) are going to be more picky about layouts, graphical designs, color pallette, etc... that could still have some contrast with what AI thinks is the "best and most logical" - and thus, still requiring some human interventions to tweak things to tastes.

However, on the database side, I've maybe encountered a handful of public-facing website clients in 20 years that cared about things like column names, foreign key constraints, trigger names, indexing, etc... on the backend, and that was just for ease integration with leftover legacy systems so they didn't have to change as much with their reporting, not because they were emotionally invested in some specific table schema.

As far as clients wanting something new "from scratch" and are planning on having an IT firm manage their solutions, they tend to care only about the front-facing things their customers can see, and for the backend "black box" (where all the magic happens that they don't understand), they don't care as long as it works.

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

Sounds like there should be more people heading into construction trades, like carpentry, and building houses and things that AI can't do... Yet the "sources" are proclaiming that nobody is taking construction jobs, claiming a worker shortage for the housing deficit, even though the apprenticeship programs are all seeing 70% increases in applications.

...Weird.

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

If automation is booming, then tariffs are the best solution possible, I would think, to automate manufacturing here in the US. I mean theoretically, if machines pay for themselves after 7 to 10 years, then everything should be cheaper, because the cost to make it no longer exists... You're just paying for materials now.

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

Do we even need bosses anymore? Adopt a dog if you need control. No more doctors either, which sounds really nice to me, because setting up an appointment for 2 weeks down the road is kinda inconvenient for something I want done now.

Imagine sitting in a chair that automatically checks your vitals, and understands your problem, and diagnoses you. Gives injections on its own, with merely a medical observer there in a room filled with chairs.

Imagine prescription vending machines in that same facility.

...Walk in, walk out instant service, like a fast food drive-thru window. Revolutionary!

iluvatar5150 · Apr 10, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
If automation is booming, then tariffs are the best solution possible, I would think, to automate manufacturing here in the US. I mean theoretically, if machines pay for themselves after 7 to 10 years, then everything should be cheaper, because the cost to make it no longer exists... You're just paying for materials now.

Why would you need tariffs when everything is automated? The big reasons to locate production in a certain place are labor costs and logistics related to transporting raw materials and finished products. Automation takes the labor costs out of the equation, and if the products are going to be sold in the US, there’s more reason to locate production here.

Landon Caeli · Apr 10, 2026

iluvatar5150 said:
Why would you need tariffs when everything is automated? The big reasons to locate production in a certain place are labor costs and logistics related to transporting raw materials and finished products. Automation takes the labor costs out of the equation, and if the products are going to be sold in the US, there’s more reason to locate production here.

Start-ups will be initially costly, for the equipment. After that, yeah, there probably won't be a need for tariffs anymore.

RDKirk · Apr 10, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
Sounds like there should be more people heading into construction trades, like carpentry, and building houses and things that AI can't do... Yet the "sources" are proclaiming that nobody is taking construction jobs, claiming a worker shortage for the housing deficit, even though the apprenticeship programs are all seeing 70% increases in applications.

...Weird.

That won't help if their prospective clients are out of work. It won't help if commercial buildings and residences aren't being built and maintained. It won't help if the construction industry can't afford to hire and pay workers.

RDKirk · Apr 10, 2026

Landon Caeli said:
If automation is booming, then tariffs are the best solution possible, I would think, to automate manufacturing here in the US. I mean theoretically, if machines pay for themselves after 7 to 10 years, then everything should be cheaper, because the cost to make it no longer exists... You're just paying for materials now.

That does nobody but the wealthy any good.

Corporations today are stupider than corporations were 100 years ago.

bèlla · May 30, 2026

Andrew Yang on AI's Impact on Jobs

This was recorded in March. Yang shares his thoughts from a recent Ai conference including their intention to automate 50% of the white collar workforce.

~bella

Pommer · May 31, 2026

bèlla said:
Andrew Yang on AI's Impact on Jobs

This was recorded in March. Yang shares his thoughts from a recent Ai conference including their intention to automate 50% of the white collar workforce.

~bella

Businesses not needing “labor” isn’t generally a “good thing” in a jobs based economy. But then WDIK?

Desk trauma · May 31, 2026

Pommer said:
Businesses not needing “labor” isn’t generally a “good thing” in a jobs based economy.

Labor is an expense. Eliminate expense, number go up that quarter.

Were you under the delusion that anything else matters?

ThatRobGuy · May 31, 2026

Pommer said:
Businesses not needing “labor” isn’t generally a “good thing” in a jobs based economy. But then WDIK?

I often find myself agreeing with Yang on some things here and there, and this would be one of those cases.

And I say this as someone who's adopted a lot of AI for my job.

I think we'll have to thread the needle.

Obviously we can't avoid any and all automation and tech advancement, but there does need to be a trade off.

The old analogy of "you can have people dig trenches with spoons instead of shovels because that'll create more jobs" highlights the other end of the spectrum and we shouldn't arbitrarily keeping every task more manually labor intensive purely in the name of "jobs". But on the flipside, there doesn't need to be a counterbalance to total automation.

This is me just spitballing, and perhaps I'm oversimplifying... but my personal recommendation would be:

60% tax on automation that goes into some sort of UBI fund, or perhaps even directly to the person that was replaced.

Meaning:

If a CEO decided to leverage AI to replace a person currently making $50k/year, that person now collects $30k/year.

The company still gets some cost savings, the former employee has enough cushion that they could take another position that perhaps suits their interests to augment that.

Perhaps this next part sounds a little dystopian...but my prediction is
Ultimately, AI will supplant all of the "work stuff" that people don't like to do anyway, and we'll shift towards an "interests-based" economy where commodities will be "human generated material" catering to niche markets. So the various arts will actually get an uptick in demand in the future.

RDKirk · Jun 2, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
The company still gets some cost savings, the former employee has enough cushion that they could take another position that perhaps suits their interests to augment that.

Most likely, that next job will be at Home Depot or cleaning bedpans at a hospital.

ThatRobGuy said:
Perhaps this next part sounds a little dystopian...but my prediction is
Ultimately, AI will supplant all of the "work stuff" that people don't like to do anyway, and we'll shift towards an "interests-based" economy where commodities will be "human generated material" catering to niche markets. So the various arts will actually get an uptick in demand in the future.

Umm....where have you been lately? AI has been taking over the arts first.

iluvatar5150 · Jun 2, 2026

ThatRobGuy said:
Perhaps this next part sounds a little dystopian...but my prediction is
Ultimately, AI will supplant all of the "work stuff" that people don't like to do anyway, and we'll shift towards an "interests-based" economy where commodities will be "human generated material" catering to niche markets. So the various arts will actually get an uptick in demand in the future.

That's what Keynes predicted technology would do for us.

How's that worked out?

AI is going to come for anything that requires brainpower and that can be done entirely within a computer. Most consumer standards for "art" are fairly low and AI will be a perfectly sufficient source.

RDKirk · Jun 2, 2026

iluvatar5150 said:
That's what Keynes predicted technology would do for us.

How's that worked out?

AI is going to come for anything that requires brainpower and that can be done entirely within a computer. Most consumer standards for "art" are fairly low and AI will be a perfectly sufficient source.

In many cases, we've already been adapted to it. Popular music, for instance, could have been AI a couple of decades ago. We won't notice the difference when it goes completely AI. There are already some fully AI groups that have been very popular.

In my portrait photography, I've pulled backward. I had moved away from locations and intricately designed set pieces to digitized background for a bit prior to the Covid lockdown, but in the last couple of years I've gone back to the old ways. My intention now is to provide clients with having had a "genuine moment" that the image in the picture was "real," even if it was hand-made.

AI has replaced work for 20% of full-time employees in the U.S., survey says

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