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Hottest Week on Record, Hottest June, Record hottest days, Record Low Antarctic sea ice

RocksInMyHead

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Actually, that is not what I said.
"Scientists have fabricated a consensus that global warming is bad so that they can get grant money." Sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.
And what about the "deniers are just frontmen for their financial backers, the oil industry"?
I don't see where I said that - can you point it out?
 
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Reasonably Sane

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Wait, before reviewing anything that could be redundant information for me, that might only tell me what I already know, let me just state a general thing I already know, first:

"Additionally, the global frequency of storms may decrease or remain unchanged, but hurricanes that form are more likely to become intense."

So, for now, fewer, but worse.
Ok?

Now, did you have really new information there for me to see? (but let me warn you, if it tries to claim climate is cooling that won't be a legit article as the evidence is very overwhelming that climate is warming over decades of time)
Yep.
 
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Reasonably Sane

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"Scientists have fabricated a consensus that global warming is bad so that they can get grant money." Sure sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.

I don't see where I said that - can you point it out?
Actually, no. And that is because it is not what I said. To use a comparable example: Police, like everyone else, get raises and promotions based on performance. i.e. tickets written, etc. It means that every person they stop for any traffic infraction is a potential career building moment. There may be a stash of drugs in your car or you may be drunk, or they may hit the jackpot with a drug mule. The result is that cops can be very tenacious if they think one of the above is true - to the point of harrassing innocent civilians or, sometimes, even PLANTING drugs.

Is it a conspiracy? Nope. It's just individuals operating on what they think is their own best interests. However, saying people are mouthpieces for "big oil" when there is no proof or evidence? THAT is a conspiracy theory.

BTW, "not a conspiracy", but still:
 
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Halbhh

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Ok, have a look at U.S. total storm damage costs, adjusted for inflation, from 1980-2023
and it's the exact data your linked paged was about:
:
1699475748594.png

Actually, storm activity decreased. There is a good list of articles and discussion here: Not a Billion Dollar Disaster
And the good news about change is that it is very slow. Slow enough that the local culture can adapt. e.g. they can start planting orange trees and vineyards in the Sahara and Siberia. :tearsofjoy:

But I posted a video a few posts up that discusses what's happening.
 
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Halbhh

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Actually, storm activity decreased. There is a good list of articles and discussion here: Not a Billion Dollar Disaster
And the good news about change is that it is very slow. Slow enough that the local culture can adapt. e.g. they can start planting orange trees and vineyards in the Sahara and Siberia. :tearsofjoy:

But I posted a video a few posts up that discusses what's happening.
Also, I noticed a crucial mistake in the article linked.

At first it might seem reasonable to look at total annual deaths as the way to gauge storms since like 1900.... say in 1962 for instance (like your linked article)....

But that will ignore a huge factor that is overwhelmingly decisive in how many deaths will occur in an intense storm....

Storm deaths are highly dependent on whether or not people had sufficient warning time to be able to evacuate or get to higher ground or storm shelter....

Having literally been in a house a tornado hit, I can attest it matters whether or not you have any warning and time..... (we didn't have any warning until the hail broke the windows and we ran to the kitchen table, and the roof was ripped off over our heads as we huddled helplessly under the kitchen table, and we survived only by luck or the providence of God....
ah, it's on the internet: Duncan Tornado 36 Years Later: "We now have storm sirens that alert us to tornadoes. We did not have them in 1975. ")

Warnings can save lives, especially in a flood or hurricane.
Make sense?

Since being warned matters for how many die in a storm...then this means we cannot correctly compare deaths of a big storm in 1962 to a big storm after about 1980, because in years like 1980 onward people get much more warning and time before it hits so that they can evacuate or take shelter...

But in 1962 people didn't get significant warning ahead of time like they did in years like 1990 or 2020....

So, tell me whether you agree then with the next conclusion we can see: that the writer was either trying to mislead people or else the writer just didn't think clearly and well....
 
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RocksInMyHead

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Actually, no. And that is because it is not what I said. To use a comparable example: Police, like everyone else, get raises and promotions based on performance. i.e. tickets written, etc. It means that every person they stop for any traffic infraction is a potential career building moment. There may be a stash of drugs in your car or you may be drunk, or they may hit the jackpot with a drug mule. The result is that cops can be very tenacious if they think one of the above is true - to the point of harrassing innocent civilians or, sometimes, even PLANTING drugs.

Is it a conspiracy? Nope. It's just individuals operating on what they think is their own best interests.
Sure, but if you take that information and extrapolate the conclusion that all police are corrupt and none of their actions are in genuine service to the law, but rather to their own self-interest (just as you posit that the idea of a "scientific consensus" is nothing more than a scheme to get grant money, and that secretly, scientists are all wrong about global warming - and know it), THAT is a conspiracy theory.

You can acknowledge that scientists are, in part, motivated by needing to earn a living while still accepting that their research is valid. If your ONLY grounds for questioning the consensus is that you think the consensus is biased, that's not a very strong argument. Bias, or external motivation, is only a reason to more closely scrutinize results, not to reject them out-of-hand.
 
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Reasonably Sane

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Ok, have a look at U.S. total storm damage costs, adjusted for inflation, from 1980-2023
and it's the exact data your linked paged was about:
:
View attachment 338996
Could you give me a source for that chart? Reading and creating charts was part of my job before I retired. I'd like to see where they got the backing information, and what, exactly, is a "severe storm"? I know a few years ago they started naming storms like they've named hurricanes for a very long time.

I am homing in on that one because it is the only one that is showing a significant increase after about 2004.

I'd also like to see that chart going back to 1950 or 1930. 43 years isn't much. Frankly, 200 years isn't much, but it gives a better feel.
Also, I noticed a crucial mistake in the article linked.

At first it might seem reasonable to look at total annual deaths as the way to gauge storms since like 1900.... say in 1962 for instance (like your linked article)....

But that will ignore a huge factor that is overwhelmingly decisive in how many deaths will occur in an intense storm....

Storm deaths are highly dependent on whether or not people had sufficient warning time to be able to evacuate or get to higher ground or storm shelter....

Having literally been in a house a tornado hit, I can attest it matters whether or not you have any warning and time..... (we didn't have any warning until the hail broke the windows and we ran to the kitchen table, and the roof was ripped off over our heads as we huddled helplessly under the kitchen table, and we survived only by luck or the providence of God....
ah, it's on the internet: Duncan Tornado 36 Years Later: "We now have storm sirens that alert us to tornadoes. We did not have them in 1975. ")

Warnings can save lives, especially in a flood or hurricane.
Make sense?

Since being warned matters for how many die in a storm...then this means we cannot correctly compare deaths of a big storm in 1962 to a big storm after about 1980, because in years like 1980 onward people get much more warning and time before it hits so that they can evacuate or take shelter...

But in 1962 people didn't get significant warning ahead of time like they did in years like 1990 or 2020....

So, tell me whether you agree then with the next conclusion we can see: that the writer was either trying to mislead people or else the writer just didn't think clearly and well....
Actually, what you say does make some sense. However, there is another factor that he shows in another article: The development in the coastlines hit by the storms. When a storm hits a highly populated area it will kill more people. It will also do more property damage.

To be frank, I've always been more interested in how many storms hit landfall, and their power. And regarding damage, sometimes it's like Katrina. What made it so devastating was it collapsed the levy.

And this matters:
Sure, but if you take that information and extrapolate the conclusion that all police are corrupt and none of their actions are in genuine service to the law, but rather to their own self-interest (just as you posit that the idea of a "scientific consensus" is nothing more than a scheme to get grant money, and that secretly, scientists are all wrong about global warming - and know it), THAT is a conspiracy theory.

You can acknowledge that scientists are, in part, motivated by needing to earn a living while still accepting that their research is valid. If your ONLY grounds for questioning the consensus is that you think the consensus is biased, that's not a very strong argument. Bias, or external motivation, is only a reason to more closely scrutinize results, not to reject them out-of-hand.
I was just making the argument that what I said is not a conspiracy theory but, in fact, the argument that deniers are "bought and paid for by the oil industry" IS a conspiracy theory.

There have been scientists that have come out and blatantly said that if you want to keep your job, you don't fight the consensus on climate.
 
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Reasonably Sane

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Ok, have a look at U.S. total storm damage costs, adjusted for inflation, from 1980-2023
and it's the exact data your linked paged was about:
:
View attachment 338996
Could you give me a source for that chart? Reading and creating charts was part of my job before I retired. I'd like to see where they got the backing information, and what, exactly, is a "severe storm"? I know a few years ago they started naming storms like they've named hurricanes for a very long time.

I am homing in on that one because it is the only one that is showing a significant increase after about 2004.

I'd also like to see that chart going back to 1950 or 1930. 43 years isn't much. Frankly, 200 years isn't much, but it gives a better feel.
Also, I noticed a crucial mistake in the article linked.

At first it might seem reasonable to look at total annual deaths as the way to gauge storms since like 1900.... say in 1962 for instance (like your linked article)....

But that will ignore a huge factor that is overwhelmingly decisive in how many deaths will occur in an intense storm....

Storm deaths are highly dependent on whether or not people had sufficient warning time to be able to evacuate or get to higher ground or storm shelter....

Having literally been in a house a tornado hit, I can attest it matters whether or not you have any warning and time..... (we didn't have any warning until the hail broke the windows and we ran to the kitchen table, and the roof was ripped off over our heads as we huddled helplessly under the kitchen table, and we survived only by luck or the providence of God....
ah, it's on the internet: Duncan Tornado 36 Years Later: "We now have storm sirens that alert us to tornadoes. We did not have them in 1975. ")

Warnings can save lives, especially in a flood or hurricane.
Make sense?

Since being warned matters for how many die in a storm...then this means we cannot correctly compare deaths of a big storm in 1962 to a big storm after about 1980, because in years like 1980 onward people get much more warning and time before it hits so that they can evacuate or take shelter...

But in 1962 people didn't get significant warning ahead of time like they did in years like 1990 or 2020....

So, tell me whether you agree then with the next conclusion we can see: that the writer was either trying to mislead people or else the writer just didn't think clearly and well....
Actually, what you say does make some sense. However, there is another factor that he shows in another article: The development in the coastlines hit by the storms. When a storm hits a highly populated area it will kill more people. It will also do more property damage.

To be frank, I've always been more interested in how many storms hit landfall, and their power. And regarding damage, sometimes it's like Katrina. What made it so devastating was it collapsed the levy.
 
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essentialsaltes

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Opinions vary.
There's actually no opinion expressed there. Just two maps with different and clearly labeled data sources that are showing different things on different scales. And an illogical implication in the headline.

Followed by yet a third map with an inane and unjustified observation.
 
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Reasonably Sane

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There's actually no opinion expressed there. Just two maps with different and clearly labeled data sources that are showing different things on different scales. And an illogical implication in the headline.

Followed by yet a third map with an inane and unjustified observation.
Technically, yer right. I suppose I'm talking about the inferences it creates regarding the data used to make the "hottest year" claim. But I'll just leave with that. I forgot I was not going to get into this AGW stuff any more. That ship sailed for me years ago. I have more pressing things and that dead horse has been beaten by me with literally thousands of posts over the last 15 years. ;)
 
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Halbhh

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Could you give me a source for that chart?
From NOAA.


You should find these interesting also, including the banner summary at top which goes through the time series summaries for costs, deaths, etc.

This climate change stuff is a long fascination for me. Of course it's very simple that when the air and ocean temperatures are higher, there will be more water vapor going into the atmosphere, which must increase global rainfall. But the most interesting stuff is what happens with storms. That's much more complex and interesting than merely a global increased precipitation.
 
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essentialsaltes

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After months of record planetary warmth, temperatures have become even more abnormal in recent weeks — briefly averaging close to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, a global warming thresholdleaders are seeking to avoid.
On Friday, the planet soared 2.07 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, or the 1850 to 1900 average, according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. [It was above 2 degrees on Saturday also.]

Two degrees Celsius — or 3.6 degree Fahrenheit — is the internationally agreed upon upper limit of warming established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Scientists have long warned that sustained warming of 1.5 degrees or more will lead to cascading risks for human and planetary systems, including negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, water supplies and food security.

However, caution is warranted when it comes to a single day’s data, said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He noted that the terms of the Paris climate agreement are more concerned with sustained, years-long warming at those temperatures.
 
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USincognito

a post by Alan Smithee
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Halbhh

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I think it will be also good to see that in graphic form.

cfs.png


On Friday, the planet soared 2.07 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, or the 1850 to 1900 average, according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. [It was above 2 degrees on Saturday also.]

Two degrees Celsius — or 3.6 degree Fahrenheit — is the internationally agreed upon upper limit of warming established by the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

Scientists have long warned that sustained warming of 1.5 degrees or more will lead to cascading risks for human and planetary systems, including negative impacts on ecosystems, biodiversity, water supplies and food security.

However, caution is warranted when it comes to a single day’s data, said Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. He noted that the terms of the Paris climate agreement are more concerned with sustained, years-long warming at those temperatures.
 
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Reasonably Sane

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I don't know about others, but I prefer to get my information from actual science sites or the original data rather than a political advocacy site run by climate denier Tony Heller.
Define "science site".

BTW, I use heller's site because he communicates in a way that is easy for the lay person to digest. Here is a "respected" scientist, if it more fits your needs. The article is from 2010:


And this recent interview sort of drives the point home:

 
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USincognito

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Define "science site".
It'll usually have a .gov or .edu URL.
BTW, I use heller's site because he communicates in a way that is easy for the lay person to digest.
Propaganda is usually packaged that way.
Here is a "respected" scientist, if it more fits your needs. The article is from 2010:


And this recent interview sort of drives the point home:

I'm not dismissing Dr. Curry out of hand, but as an analogy, she's a maverick about global warming the way Alan Fedducia and John Ruben are mavericks about bird evolution. They all accept the consensus to a certain point, but not all the way.
 
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essentialsaltes

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