Biden has early lead in polls over Trump as Bernie quits race

OldWiseGuy said:

It has to be someone acceptable to the Bernie supporters.

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I don't think so. As was the case last time, Bernie will be a good soldier and actively campaign for Biden. However, many of Bernie's supporters will stay home.

IMO, it is much more important to have a candidate that is acceptable to Clyburn and Obama.

mark46 said:

I don't think so. As was the case last time, Bernie will be a good soldier and actively campaign for Biden. However, many of Bernie's supporters will stay home.

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Then he might as well choose Hillary.

mark46 said:

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IMO, it will difficult for Biden not to choose Harris. An outrage from the left against Harris might make a difference.

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She would be more logical than others I've heard mentioned, but if it's not an African-American woman, do we think that African-Americans or any other Democrats are about to bolt towards Trump? I don't think so. Not with Biden the nominee.

If it had been Sanders, then perhaps, but not Biden or Biden+?. And Klobuchar isn't very controversial; and when a VP is chosen that is often a consideration--no one who will upstage the Presidential nominee or cause new controversies. Besides, of all the must-have states that you mentioned before, MN is, in my opinion, the least safe for the Democrats.

I still think this election will hinge on the economy. If people see the president working hard and insituting policies that is helping the economy then I think he'll get re-elected. However if the economy is stagnant or falling further and he isn't doing much then I think he won't be re-elected. Because Biden will promise people more money, lots of free stuff that people will grab onto because they need help.

Albion said:

She would be more logical than others I've heard mentioned, but if it's not an African-American woman, do we think that African-Americans or any other Democrats are about to bolt towards Trump? I don't think so. Not with Biden the nominee.

If it had been Sanders, then perhaps, but not Biden or Biden+?. And Klobuchar isn't very controversial; and when a VP is chosen that is often a consideration--no one who will upstage the Presidential nominee or cause new controversies. Besides, of all the must-have states that you mentioned before, MN is, in my opinion, the least safe for the Democrats.

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I agree that Klobuchar would be more valuable since the rust belt is key.

BTW, folks don't fear blacks voting for Trump. That wasn't the issue last time. Folks are afraid that they will simply stay at home which is what happened in 2016.

Hank77 said:

CO will go to Biden just as Clinton won CO.

I think AZ will be his biggest challenge.

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Biden should be expected to win CO, NV and NM. He just can't ignore these states since the margin isn't that large. AZ is a Republican state that the Democrats have a chance of winning. Winning AZ allows the Democrats to lose WI and still win the election (as long as they win PA and MI).

If America has any collective pride left, Biden shouldn’t just defeat Trump...he should wipe the floor with his arrogant face...

mark46 said:

BTW, folks don't fear blacks voting for Trump.

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Well, there has been some talk along those lines lately. You many recall the polls that showed 25% or more support for the president on the part of black Americans. That excited some observers.

My own opinion is that people tend not to very easily give up on the party they normally vote for, so that if there is sympathy or support for the president's policies, that doesn't mean too much on Election Day. Some gains, perhaps, but not as many as the optimists think.

Folks are afraid that they will simply stay at home which is what happened in 2016.

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...and that could be the case again, but if the turnout is similar to 2016, that wouldn't mean a loss for Trump. It would simply mean no change from the election results that gave him the win then.

ACandleInthe Shadows said:

Those polls are fake news.

Honestly, Biden is pretty invisible during this crisis. We rarely hear from him. He can't campaign. So, people aren't really familiar with him. But they are with Trump. I can't see Biden winning.

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Biden was more of a president than Trump ever was, and he didn't even hold office.

Biden didn't kill thousands of Americans for the sake of his ego.

ACandleInthe Shadows said:

Those polls are fake news.

Honestly, Biden is pretty invisible during this crisis. We rarely hear from him. He can't campaign. So, people aren't really familiar with him. But they are with Trump. I can't see Biden winning.

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Never interrupt the enemy while he is busy making a mistake?

Albion said:

. In his two previous runs at the presidency, he quickly fizzled.

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In Biden's two previous runs, Biden fizzled early in the primaries, not in the general election fight.

In any case, the election won't have much to do with Biden. It will be a referendum on Trump. Do the voters want four MORE years, or not?

It is rare for an incumbent not to be re-elected. Trump is certainly doing his part.

mark46 said:

In Biden's two previous runs, Biden fizzled early in the primaries, not in the general election fight.

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That's true and I thought of that. However, he didn't just fail to catch on. He's fizzle-able.

Take for instance the campaign that came to a screeching halt when it was shown that he plagiarized a major portion of a speech from a British politician. Then, accusations followed about his having done the same with remarks by John Kennedy, Robert Kennedy, and Hubert Humphrey..

Albion said:

That's true and I thought of that. However, he didn't just fail to catch on. He's fizzle-able.

Take for instance the campaign that came to a screeching halt when it was shown that he plagiarized virtually a whole speech from a British politician.

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Yes, I remember. But this time, Biden is all but immune from such gaffes. When compared to similar gaffes by Trump, his are insignificant. IMO, what matter is whether folks want to continue with the country under the policies and leadership of Trump. I suspect that 43% of the population wants to continue on this road. If enough of Trump's base turn out in the right districts, he will win once again.
Obviously, the Democrats are capable of again grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, yet again.

mark46 said:

Yes, I remember. But this time, Biden is all but immune from such gaffes.

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I don't think so, but we're both guessing, of course. And I think his greater vulnerability relates to his physical limitations.

When compared to similar gaffes by Trump, his are insignificant.

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You do have a point there. Biden's backers are primed, I am sure, to claim--long and loud with most TV networks backing them up--that anytime the President says "hello" it's either a gaffe or a lie. Most people can see through that.

What Biden has already shown on the primary campaign trail is enough to make a lot more people than me confident that he's not going be able to get through a general election campaign without looking ridiculous. I won't recount all the possibilities, but just consider this...he'll never be able to go toe-to-toe with Trump in a televised debate.