Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

[essentialsaltes]

For some of the monthly things, we might want a long look at the past. And to clarify what some of those metrics are.

Monthly job growth

Monthly trade deficit

Budget deficit (monthly with running total for FY 2025 at bottom [which is what is in OP])

 

[rambot]

IT's CRAZY to me that people will look at this graph and think, "Oh yeah. That's fine. From what I read elsewhere that number was ABOUT 4%

Meanwhile, 800 people have 17%?

And people are kvetching about workers getting MORE money and thinking "they just need a better job". But I don't think 50% of the population can just "go get a better job". America doesn't have that many good jobs. You need people to do crap jobs.


And so America needs to find a way to pay people a job so they don't die.

150,000,000 people is the conservative number for what 50% of America is. And that is how much wealth they have

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

What was posted? Are those numbers good or bad? What do they compare to? In the link? Which source? Should I do a spread sheet of all of them to be convinced by the data that I'm not in a bad situation economically?

If you really have the interest you can find historical graphs of each metric. Even find data for other countries. I am interested in where it all goes from here. if you can't get past your own personal self interest you can probably even find data for your state, county and city.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

	10/30/2024​		1/1/2025​
GDP Growth	2.80%		3.1%​
Unemploymnet Rate	4.20%		4.2%​
Inflation Rate CPI	2.70%		2.7%​
Disposable Income	$21,855 B		$ 21,995 B
Deficit	$ 1.83 T		$ 1.833 T
Debt	$ 36.08 T		$ 36.14 T​
FF Interest Rate	4.75%		4.5%​
Trade	$ -73.8 B		$ -74.6 B​
Job Growth	227,000		180,363​
Wage Growth	4.60%		4.6%​
Dow	43,828		42,544​

 

[rambot]

Curious how Musk et. Al. Want to kick out unskilled labourers do jobs Americans, it has been repeated, Americans will NOT do.

And then wants to bring in high skilled job seekers to replace Americans. To pay them less.

Thereby making America greater...how?

 

[Belk]

Curious how Musk et. Al. Want to kick out unskilled labourers do jobs Americans, it has been repeated, Americans will NOT do.

And then wants to bring in high skilled job seekers to replace Americans. To pay them less.

Thereby making America greater...how?

Is kicking out illegal immigrants a Musk thing? Seems like something he would not really care about.

 

[Yarddog]

The one telling us to ignore our personal struggles because the data says they're not real.

Not sure which party is doing that. The Dems are aware of the personal struggles caused by the pandemic. Run away inflation would have been there regardless of which person won the election. But, the fact is that the US economy is doing great. The high prices are there and may not go down unless a recession hits .

Trump said that it would be be easy to bring prices down, during his campaign, but has already reneged on that claim and acknowledges that it will be difficult. So, don't expect relief any time soon.

 

[Laodicean60]

Does objective empirical data exist. Well, I think so.

What is this data telling you?

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

What is this data telling you?

Pretty healthy for post COVID world shut down.

but

Average US long-term mortgage rate inches up to 6.93% this week for fourth straight increase.

Dow Jones Industrial Average​

(+0.25%) YTD

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I think some of the stats you present, while useful to assess certain things, don't necessarily account for the factor of "already have money and established a good income and housing" vs. not having those things.

I mentioned this in another thread, but there's a bit of double-speak at play.

People will appeal to a handful of selected stats to claim the economy is "good" to defend a particular team's economic record, meanwhile, they're constantly asking for the types of things that one would only ask for if they thought a significant amount of people were having a rough time under the current economy.

"The economy is doing great!!; you're just scaremongering and misleading people for political gains.......
.... but, quick side note, we desperately need to overhaul the student loan and healthcare systems, increase subsidized housing, and increase the minimum wage by 50%, because we have a lot of people having a hard time keeping their head above water out there"

Well, is it great?, or isn't it?

If you want to really assess what drives opinions about "how the economy is doing" in the abstract rhetorical sense, which is what people use when they vote on "the economy"...that really comes down to a small handful of things, and it's the things that are close to home.

"What kind of buying power do I have in terms of housing?"
"What does my grocery bill look like?"
"How much does it cost to fill up my tank?"

Shallow and incomplete? Sure... but those are the things a majority of Americans are thinking about when they vote based on "the economy". They don't care about the Dow, or GDP to debt ratio comparisons between Q2 and Q4...

"Can I cover my bills, and if so, how much money do I have left afterwards to do fun stuff?"...that's what most people are voting on when they say they're voting on "the economy"

 

[Laodicean60]

Pretty healthy for post COVID world shut down.

but

Average US long-term mortgage rate inches up to 6.93% this week for fourth straight increase.

Dow Jones Industrial Average​

(+0.25%) YTD

You have to be careful when looking at the headline numbers because they are Average of several other data points, for example, CPI may appear low but the cost of food, energy and housing are high.
Unemployment may seem low but you don't know how many people are taking on two jobs both part-time or full-time which most lower income people have to do to survive.
I believe this is the main reason Trump won and the Democrats seemed out of touch with the working class.

 

[o_mlly]

Does objective empirical data exist. Well, I think so.

10 sites that help you track the economy

If you're worried about the state of the economy, but you want to learn about it for yourself, we have you covered.

www.cnet.com

Tis but a snapshot. One needs to see the movie to predict the future direction of an economy and then only tentatively so. Ask our SoCal brethren.

If Trump institutes 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (relatively soon and they remain in place), then the inflation number will not get under 2% (the usual target from people who know more about economics than I do), except in the event of a general recession/depression.

Perhaps. Let's look at a particular and how it might play out.

Lexus builds RX SUV vehicles in Canada and exports them to the USA. Mercedes-Benz, Genesis, BMW build mid-size luxury SUVs in the USA. The threat of tariffs in in the air. If implemented the sales of Lexus RX in the USA will drop dramatically. How long do you think Toyota would take to convert one of its USA manufacturing plants to build the RXs? It's probably happening now.

So, the inflation prediction would probably be unwarranted in the RX case ... and I suspect in many other products as well. More likely the tariffs would result in more jobs for USA citizens, increased National income, increase in tax revenues ...

 

[Laodicean60]

Lexus builds RX SUV vehicles in Canada and exports them to the USA. Mercedes-Benz, Genesis, BMW build mid-size luxury SUVs in the USA. The threat of tariffs in in the air. If implemented the sales of Lexus RX in the USA will drop dramatically. How long do you think Toyota would take to convert one of its USA manufacturing plants to build the RXs? It's probably happening now.

How long until German manufacturers retool in Canada?
I believe the Trump tarrifs are inflationary.

 

[wing2000]

f you want to really assess what drives opinions about "how the economy is doing" in the abstract rhetorical sense, which is what people use when they vote on "the economy"...that really comes down to a small handful of things, and it's the things that are close to home.

"What kind of buying power do I have in terms of housing?"
"What does my grocery bill look like?"
"How much does it cost to fill up my tank?"

Shallow and incomplete? Sure... but those are the things a majority of Americans are thinking about when they vote based on "the economy". They don't care about the Dow, or GDP to debt ratio comparisons between Q2 and Q4...

"Can I cover my bills, and if so, how much money do I have left afterwards to do fun stuff?"...that's what most people are voting on when they say they're voting on "the economy"

Sure, but which data do we use to measure the consumer's buying power? Consumer confidence index?

 

[ThatRobGuy]

How long until German manufacturers retool in Canada?
I believe the Trump tarrifs are inflationary.

Any measure that will encourage people to pay more for domestically-made goods over imports, are by their very nature, going to be somewhat inflationary.


I've mentioned this before, this is where people really need to bite the bullet and acknowledge the residual effects of the policy they're asking for.

If buying a widget starts costing people $7 instead of $5

It doesn't really matter if that $2 price increase was due to
- tariffs (that pressured people to buy American, or pressured companies to on-shore, where workers' wages are higher)
vs.
- artificial increases to wages and benefits

The end result to the consumer is the same.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Sure, but which data do we use to measure the consumer's buying power? Consumer confidence index?

I would say specific CPI indicators for housing and food would be the baseline starting point.

For instance...

Even if
unemployment goes down
GDP goes up
wages across the board increased by 5%,
and the cost of the majority of consumer goods dropped by 2%

If average rents increased by 30% and grocery bills increased by 20%, many are going to be left with the impression of "this is a rough economy"

Just as a simple case example:

Joe Smith makes 45k/year.

He gets a 2500 raise, but his rent goes from $1000 to $1300, and his weekly grocery bill goes from $100 up to $120 every week.

Despite a plethora of economic markers "looking pretty good", Joe's still finding himself on a tighter budget than he was on the previous year. The fact that the shirt he wanted to buy is now $28 instead of $30 is going to be of little comfort to his situation.


The metrics laid out by the OP indicate a good economy for those who already had purchased home under a fixed rate (or already have a home that's paid off). For a person who's renting, or in the process of trying to buy a home, thing aren't quite as "glowing".

 

[essentialsaltes]

Economy adds 256,000 jobs in December as hiring picked up toward the end of 2024​

The unemployment rate was 4.1 percent [down from 4.2]

Forecasters had predicted the report would show 155,000 new jobs added in December.

The report provides the last major picture of the labor market before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House on Jan. 20. Trump spent much of the campaign season lambasting the Biden-era economy, although a strong labor market remains one of President Joe Biden’s legacies and it is still largely in decent shape.

 

[essentialsaltes]

How long do you think Toyota would take to convert one of its USA manufacturing plants to build the RXs?

About the same amount of time it takes Ford to start producing Mustangs in Cologne.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

If you want to really assess what drives opinions about "how the economy is doing" in the abstract rhetorical sense, which is what people use when they vote on "the economy"...that really comes down to a small handful of things, and it's the things that are close to home.

"What kind of buying power do I have in terms of housing?"
"What does my grocery bill look like?"
"How much does it cost to fill up my tank?"

Shallow and incomplete? Sure... but those are the things a majority of Americans are thinking about when they vote based on "the economy". They don't care about the Dow, or GDP to debt ratio comparisons between Q2 and Q4...

"Can I cover my bills, and if so, how much money do I have left afterwards to do fun stuff?"...that's what most people are voting on when they say they're voting on "the economy"

You seem to want to rely on subjective sentiments. They will always vary drastically with place and social class. That is why aggregate metrics are needed, to get the bird's objective eye view of the economy.


"What kind of buying power do I have in terms of housing?" Local and national housing markets. https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/06/economy/donald-trumps-housing-market-conundrum/index.html


"What does my grocery bill look like?" Food Price Outlook - Summary Findings | Economic Research Service


"How much does it cost to fill up my tank?" AAA Fuel Prices

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

So, the inflation prediction would probably be unwarranted in the RX case ... and I suspect in many other products as well. More likely the tariffs would result in more jobs for USA citizens, increased National income, increase in tax revenues ...

We can certainly track it and see what happens.