Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

[Pommer]

Not likely.

What is the product mix of the 200M vehicles exported to Canada? What is the present capacity utilization of the Ford plants in Canada? Are those plants physically (with reasonable investment) capable of producing the 200M imported vehicles, eg., the trucks vs. cars, EVs vs gas models?

The point is net jobs lost vs gained. Do the math. Canada exports 1.2 million vehicles per year to the USA.

Have we totally reneged on our obligations under NAFTA/USMCA?

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Have we totally reneged on our obligations under NAFTA/USMCA?

That's an old deal, a terrible deal, President Trump will negotiate a great new deal.

 

[NxNW]

That's an old deal, a terrible deal, President Trump will negotiate a great new deal.

I'm trying think of an example of Trump ever negotiating a great deal. Has it ever happened?

 

[civilwarbuff]

I think the OP's concept is to look at how these numbers change as Trump enacts his MAGA plans. Whether these particular numbers are good or bad is arguable, but we'll objectively be able to determine whether they are getting better or worse.

Well, if that's the case we should go back to the beginning of the Biden presidency to have some empirical data to compare it to. I mean, if he had 3 lousy years and his last is good that really gives a false impression of the Biden economy.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Well, if that's the case we should go back to the beginning of the Biden presidency to have some empirical data to compare it to. I mean, if he had 3 lousy years and his last is good that really gives a false impression of the Biden economy.

Going that far back would start in the pandemic, which wouldn't be fair to Trump to have to create a bajillion jobs and cut the unemployment rate in half in his first year to match Biden's performance.

But post #21 offers some longer term looks back

If Trump can average creating ~200,000 jobs a month as Biden has been doing the past couple years, he'll be doing no worse than Biden on that count.

 

[Hans Blaster]

I'm trying think of an example of Trump ever negotiating a great deal. Has it ever happened?

Obviously not, that's why it needs renegotiating. Hopefully he can do better than the last guy to renegotiate it.

 

[essentialsaltes]

U.S. economy continues to outperform the rest of the world, IMF says​

But new policies could reignite inflation, worsen budget woes

The U.S. economy will continue to be the developed world’s best performer in 2025, easily topping Europe and Japan and giving President-elect Donald Trump a running start on his plan to spur faster growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.

[Biden hands Trump the successful Bidenomics baton.]

But without criticizing Trump by name, the fund warned that excessive deregulation and tax cuts could create a “boom-bust” dynamic for the U.S. and global economies, with a short-term growth spurt followed by an abrupt slump. And it warned that new U.S. import tariffs and potential retaliation by other countries could reignite inflation.

“While many of the policy shifts under the incoming U.S. administration are hard to quantify precisely, they are likely to push inflation higher in the near term,” he wrote in a blog post on the IMF website.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

fund warned that excessive deregulation

That is my biggest concern. Did we learn anything from 2007?

 

[essentialsaltes]

All eyes on the Fed.

President Donald Trump says he'll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately'​

 

[Pommer]

All eyes on the Fed.

President Donald Trump says he'll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately'​

Is there a button he won’t attempt to press?

 

[Laodicean60]

All eyes on the Fed.

President Donald Trump says he'll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately'​

If you think our politicians know how the economy/ market works this is proof they don't. The bond market is huge and smart people are investing billions in the prospect of the economy and inflation.

Edit: The Fed is blind too because most of their data is rearward-looking and If you look past recessions at the two year t-bills they drop sooner than the Fed cutting rates.

 

[Belk]

If you think our politicians know how the economy/ market works this is proof they don't. The bond market is huge and smart people are investing billions in the prospect of the economy and inflation.

Edit: The Fed is blind too because most of their data is rearward-looking and If you look past recessions at the two year t-bills they drop sooner than the Fed cutting rates.

True, but I trust the Fed more then I do our politicians.

 

[Laodicean60]

True, but I trust the Fed more then I do our politicians.

This is true because fiscal policies of too much spending affect the economy and inflation. The Fed at least looks backward at data where as politicians look to spend on special interest.

 

[essentialsaltes]

All eyes on the Fed.

President Donald Trump says he'll ‘demand that interest rates drop immediately'​

Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on rates even as Trump demands cuts​

Trump, last Thursday, made clear he expects to comment on interest-rate policy and said, “I know interest rates much better than they do.”

 

[Pommer]

Trump, last Thursday, made clear he expects to comment on interest-rate policy and said, “I know interest rates much better than they do.”

Thus Spake The Ubermench!

 

[essentialsaltes]

Has anything gotten cheaper? We shopped at Walmart to find the answer​

Since 2018, NPR has tracked prices at the Walmart here. It's a bustling suburban superstore — what you think of when you think of Walmart. On the most recent visit, in December, I had a new goal: to see, literally, how many of the 96 items on my list had gotten cheaper over the past year. To do this, I would buy everything on the list that has declined in price.

If NPR isn't defunded, we may find out next year how things compare.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on rates even as Trump demands cuts​

Trump, last Thursday, made clear he expects to comment on interest-rate policy and said, “I know interest rates much better than they do.”

Federal Reserve Pauses Interest Rate Cuts—First Meeting Without A Cut Since July​

The Federal Reserve announced it will keep interest rates at the same level set last month, a move widely anticipated by financial markets – though it defies the wishes of President Donald Trump.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Fresh government data this morning from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, down from annualized growth of about 3 percent in the two previous quarters. That reading capped off a year of 2.8 percent growth for Gross Domestic Product [ETA: 2.3% remains unchanged in the Feb update.]

Much of the latest growth was driven by hefty consumer spending, as Americans stocked up on big-ticket items to guard against possible price hikes from new tariffs. Spending on durable goods — such as cars, appliances and furniture — rose by 12 percent in the fourth quarter.

 

[essentialsaltes]

• Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index up 0.3% in December
• PCE inflation rises 2.6% on year-on-year basis
• Core PCE up 0.2%; gain of 2.8% on year-on-year basis
• Consumer spending jumps 0.7%; income advances 0.4%

 

[essentialsaltes]

Federal Reserve expected to stand pat on rates even as Trump demands cuts​

Trump, last Thursday, made clear he expects to comment on interest-rate policy and said, “I know interest rates much better than they do.”

• "Holding the rates at this point was the right thing to do," [Trump] told reporters.