Why Kamala’s Campaign Is Spiraling Into Desperation Mode

[Pommer]

Funny, that's what you guys say every 4 years. Both sides.

It’s the “real deal” this time, we swear!

 

[Hammster]

Agreed. There is little to no difference in these models between 40% and 60% likelihood of winning as they are fairly sensitive to "corrections" applied to poll averages. I am quite skeptical of models that claim to predict the outcomes of singular events, like who will win tomorrow's Monday Night Football game. Statistical models of collective things, like how many US voters will vote for Donald Trump is different. Measuring errors and correcting bias in data collection are normal things.

For anyone who doesn't know, in these election models they select random samples of test elections with the percentages for each state based on the measured voter polling preferences to create a random election in each state. Half will be above the average and the "spread" will depend on the measured statistical polling margins of error. A whole bunch of "simulated elections" and then count the percentage of simulated elections that goes to each way. That is the number they report as the 60%, etc.

Where things go quite astray is that Silver has decided to model the estimated final poll numbers. Since this "Trump lead" started circulating online, I have seen several people commenting on the "model adjustments". One that apparently relevant now is the "convention bounce adjustment'. In the old days, when more people watched live TV and partisan polarization wasn't as strong, pollsters usually saw a candidate go up a few points in the polls after their convention. Usually this "bump" would go back to "normal" afterwards. Silver has built "corrections" for the "convention bump". From what I have read online, with only minor polling changes, the "model probabilities" shifted because now there is a (negative) correction for the assumed "bump" in polling from the convention (there really wasn't) and so it shifted from ~60% Harris to ~60% Trump. If there are no more changes in actual polling, it will flip back. Neither for any actual events, just because of assumed correction in a model.

I'm not saying it should really be 60% Harris, or anything, but rather that these models are generally problematic and full of assumptions masquerading as "scientific statistical models". Track the polling averages if you like, but if professional campaign managers are "panicking" about a shift in Nate Silver's model (they aren't) they are truly incompetent.

Still not about the polls. A lot more to it.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Some predictive models use the betting markets in their analysis.

I thought that was along thread lines. I'll excuse myself then.

Good night

Oh my. That makes them even more useless. Cheers.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Still not about the polls. A lot more to it.

And I haven't been talking about polls, but predictive models. The kind of predictive model quoted prominently in the text of the OP. Take it up the the OPer.

 

[Postvieww]

It’s also not true, the title.

Well then why has she been running from a press conference or real tough questions on policy for forty something days. She will fall flat in the debate. The only weapon she has is to play the race/woman card. On that woman card thing if she can't stand in a tough debate with Trump she can't stand toe to toe with world leaders. She is an empty suit that most in her own party did not want until Biden dropped out and she was forced down the throats of Democrats. We will know soon how tough she is!

 

[DaisyDay]

Well then why has she been running from a press conference or real tough questions on policy for forty something days.

"Running" is just spin. I don;t know/care why she hasn't given more press conferences nor do I know why that particular thing is suddenly such a big deal. The rallies have been going well.

She will fall flat in the debate. The only weapon she has is to play the race/woman card.

And the district attorney thing. And the attorney general thing. And the VP thing. Harris can express herself well, she's sharp.

On that woman card thing if she can't stand in a tough debate with Trump she can't stand toe to toe with world leaders. She is an empty suit that most in her own party did not want until Biden dropped out and she was forced down the throats of Democrats. We will know soon how tough she is!

If you believe this, it's because you stay well within your comfy echo chamber. Sure, Trump is LARGE and LOUD, but all he can manage these days are his stock phrases in quick rotation. He cannot name specific policy, especially since he has disavowed Project 2025. He can't stay on point, so he rambles incoherently.

 

[Postvieww]

"Running" is just spin. I don;t know/care why she hasn't given more press conferences nor do I know why that particular thing is suddenly such a big deal. The rallies have been going well.

And the district attorney thing. And the attorney general thing. And the VP thing. Harris can express herself well, she's sharp.

If you believe this, it's because you stay well within your comfy echo chamber. Sure, Trump is LARGE and LOUD, but all he can manage these days are his stock phrases in quick rotation. He cannot name specific policy, especially since he has disavowed Project 2025. He can't stay on point, so he rambles incoherently.

Get back with me after the debate. Don’t forget Tulsi ate Kamala’s lunch in debate. I stand by my statement Kamala is an empty suit. I believe she’s privately scared to death but we shall see. Make some popcorn and enjoy.

 

[DaisyDay]

Get back with me after the debate. Don’t forget Tulsi ate Kamala’s lunch in debate. I stand by my statement Kamala is an empty suit. I believe she’s privately scared to death but we shall see. Make some popcorn and enjoy.

I love how you refer to the lady politicians by their first names but the gentlemen by their surnames.

 

[Postvieww]

I love how you refer to the lady politicians by their first names but the gentlemen by their surnames.

Not true I have referred to Joe numerous times.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Get back with me after the debate. Don’t forget Tulsi ate Kamala’s lunch in debate. I stand by my statement Kamala is an empty suit. I believe she’s privately scared to death but we shall see. Make some popcorn and enjoy.

That wasn't very nice, Tulsi should have brought her own lunch instead of eating Kamala's (or at least got a lunch from her dictator buddy, Assad.)

 

[GoldenBoy89]

Don’t forget Tulsi ate Kamala’s lunch in debate.

Is that who she’s debating or is she debating Donald Trump who already lost once to her and Biden?

 

[Servus]

Is that who she’s debating or is she debating Donald Trump who already lost once to her and Biden?

She didn't debate Trump. She debated Pence. She had the opportunity to debate Trump Sept 5th but she chickend out. She also debated Biden and all the other contenders in 2019 and washed out early.

 

[Postvieww]

Is that who she’s debating or is she debating Donald Trump who already lost once to her and Biden?

Are you kidding? Based on Kamala’s debating skills she got nowhere when she ran for president before . She’s just praying she can get a good sound bite out of her debate with Trump. Her policies expressed over the last few years will sink her in a debate with Trump.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

She didn't debate Trump.

I didn’t say she did. I said she’s not debating Tulsi. However she may have done against Tulsi, she’s debating the guy who already lost to her and Biden once before.

She debated Pence.

And Pence hasn’t endorsed Trump. Any wonder why that is?

She had the opportunity to debate Trump Sept 5th but she chickend out.

Not everyone is a retiree running for president in between criminal trials and golf outings. Her schedule doesn’t revolve around Trump.

She also debated Biden and all the other contenders in 2019 and washed out early.

And out of all those contenders, to include Tusli Gabbard, Harris is currently the Vice President of the United States and running for the presidency while some others are hosting a podcast and having to switch sides to stay relevant.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

Are you kidding?

No, really. He lost, to Biden no less.

Based on Kamala’s debating skills she got nowhere when she ran for president before .

I don’t know about you but I’m not voting for a professional debater.

She’s just praying she can get a good sound bite out of her debate with Trump.

That’s all these ”debates” are ever for. There’s no substance to them and you can stop pretending that’s what you’re looking for in a presidential debate. Everyone just wants to see their guy (or girl) “take down” the other person with some epic sound bite.

Her policies expressed over the last few years will sink her in a debate with Trump.

Trump also ran on his record in 2020 and we all know how that turned out and that was before he was a felon who tried to steal an election.

 

[Servus]

I didn’t say she did. I said she’s not debating Tulsi. However she may have done against Tulsi, she’s debating the guy who already lost to her and Biden once before.

And Pence hasn’t endorsed Trump. Any wonder why that is?

Not everyone is a retiree running for president in between criminal trials and golf outings. Her schedule doesn’t revolve around Trump.

And out of all those contenders, to include Tusli Gabbard, Harris is currently the Vice President of the United States and running for the presidency while some others are hosting a podcast and having to switch sides to stay relevant.

She chickened out of NABJ too. So that's two times she's ducked out of going toe to toe with Trump. I waiting for the announcement that she just came down with a cold or or has jet lag or some other excuse and won't be able to attend tonight's debate either.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

She chickened out of NABJ too. So that's two times she's ducked out of going toe to toe with Trump. I waiting for the announcement that she just came down with a cold or or has jet lag or some other excuse and won't be able to attend tonight's debate either.

Like I said, not everyone is between golf outings or waiting to be sentenced this year. Some people in this race still have jobs to do.

We’ll get to evaluate the two candidates tonight. Not that it’ll matter to anyone’s opinions here.

 

[Servus]

Like I said, not everyone is between golf outings or waiting to be sentenced this year. Some people in this race still have jobs to do.

We’ll get to evaluate the two candidates tonight. Not that it’ll matter to anyone’s opinions here.

Like you said, she has lots of excuses for hiding from all interviews and debates so far, except one that was really just a campaign ad and even for that she needed Walz next to her for emotional support. That doesn't exactly instill confidence in someone who might end up in a confrontation with the leader of an enemy nation.

 

[Servus]

The winner will be the one who drinks the most Diet Coke

With extra points awarded to the one who belches the loudest.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

Like you said, she has lots of excuses for hiding from all interviews and debates, except one that was really just a campaign ad and even for that she needed Walz next to her for emotional support. That doesn't exactly instill confidence in someone who might end up in a confrontation with the leader of an enemy nation.

I’m not sure what kind of confrontation you’re imagining her having but we have these things called the State Department, diplomats and the Intelligence communities to help with foreign relations. I know it’s hard to imagine but before Trump administrations didn’t handle things like they were a WWE wrestling match. It’s one of the many reasons so many people rejected Trump’s entertainment and ratings based politics last election.