What Happens when Oil Runs Out?

[eclipsenow]

Instead of paving paradise and putting up a parking lot, we could be tearing down the parking lots, and putting up a paradise.​

Singapore is so dense they're going to have a layer of subway trains, then a layer of robot-taxi's (that no body but the company owns), then a layer of parks on top of that!

And traffic would be much more efficient. Central computers could group the cars in slugs that all go through the light at the same time. One could even imagine a scenario that if forty cars are going north on the main road and I was going east, my car would time itself for a gap. Everybody goes through the intersection without stopping, but the slug of 40 cars breaks in the middle as it approaches the intersection so my car can fly right though.
​

There is a potential for that, but it would freak the passengers out so might not be that popular. But car platooning (getting centimetres from each other and acting as one) could see highways used more efficiently.

There's a real danger that robot cars could make traffic far worse if:-
1. Everyone owns their own
2. Everyone see their own robot car as a PA (Personal Assistant) and send them on trips while they're at work. EG: Collect the dry cleaning, get the groceries rather than having the truck deliver it, etc.

This TED talk estimates traffic could be 5 times worse if we don't adopt car-sharing. Watch this TED talk! We're going to have to have those 40 people in 10 to 15 cars, and getting a discount for car-sharing, or even in just a handful of 'algorithm mini-buses' and getting a super-discount! (An algorithm bus determines its 'route' according to the closest collection of bookings that day).

TED Talk

 

[Radrook]

That's nothing compared to AV; he's got over 3 million posts to his name, and has been on here for a comparatively long time.

Now that is definitely impressive!

 

[eclipsenow]

Now that is definitely impressive!

Not when:
1. So many of the posts are flippant or terse one liners
2. So many of the posts are one word posts in role-playing threads

 

[Radrook]

Instead of paving paradise and putting up a parking lot, we could be tearing down the parking lots, and putting up a paradise.​

Singapore is so dense they're going to have a layer of subway trains, then a layer of robot-taxi's (that no body but the company owns), then a layer of parks on top of that!

And traffic would be much more efficient. Central computers could group the cars in slugs that all go through the light at the same time. One could even imagine a scenario that if forty cars are going north on the main road and I was going east, my car would time itself for a gap. Everybody goes through the intersection without stopping, but the slug of 40 cars breaks in the middle as it approaches the intersection so my car can fly right though.
​

There is a potential for that, but it would freak the passengers out so might not be that popular. But car platooning (getting centimetres from each other and acting as one) could see highways used more efficiently.

There's a real danger that robot cars could make traffic far worse if:-
1. Everyone owns their own
2. Everyone see their own robot car as a PA (Personal Assistant) and send them on trips while they're at work. EG: Collect the dry cleaning, get the groceries rather than having the truck deliver it, etc.

This TED talk estimates traffic could be 5 times worse if we don't adopt car-sharing. Watch this TED talk! We're going to have to have those 40 people in 10 to 15 cars, and getting a discount for car-sharing, or even in just a handful of 'algorithm mini-buses' and getting a super-discount! (An algorithm bus determines its 'route' according to the closest collection of bookings that day).

TED Talk

Keeping the parks on top and all that annoying bustle out of sight makes sense.

 

[eclipsenow]

Keeping the parks on top and all that annoying bustle out of sight makes sense.

It requires a quite awesome amount of city density to make it economical.
For most places, traditional urbanism aka New Urbanism with a good old fashioned main street, or better, 30m by 30m town square is best.
After all, it's why Americans loved shows like Smallville or Gilmore Girls. Aside from the main action with the main characters, the town square is a natural place for people to bump into each other. After my wife forced me to watch Gilmore Girls, I used it to explain the blandness of suburbia on my blog.

Where would you rather live, in a quaint New Urban townhouse or eco-apartment within walking distance of here:

Or here?

 

[Radrook]

It requires a quite awesome amount of city density to make it economical.
For most places, traditional urbanism aka New Urbanism with a good old fashioned main street, or better, 30m by 30m town square is best.
After all, it's why Americans loved shows like Smallville or Gilmore Girls. Aside from the main action with the main characters, the town square is a natural place for people to bump into each other. After my wife forced me to watch Gilmore Girls, I used it to explain the blandness of suburbia on my blog.

Where would you rather live, in a quaint New Urban townhouse or eco-apartment within walking distance of here:

Or here?

That bottom one reminds me of the labyrinth in the film The Shining. All that's missing is Jack Nicolson hobbling around semi hunchbacked down the snowy streets yelling "Here's Johnny!" while lugging that ax around under his sweat-soaked underarm..

 

[Radrook]

You wont have to worry about running out of oil for 100 years....
We will be exporting oil within a few years.....

I live in texas and with fracking we are producing 43% of americas oil.......
Fracking an old oil well has nearly 100% chance of hitting oil and can produce 1000-1500 barrels a day
Vs the old 30-50 barrells a day.....

So we can revitalize our seemingly depleting wells via fracking them like crazy and even begin exporting the fracked oil again? Wow! Never imagined that fracking was that freakin effective! That is really awesome! IMHO!


What is Fracking?

What is Fracking?
Fracking is shorthand for hydraulic fracturing, a type of drilling that has been used commercially for 65 years. Today, the combination of advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, employing cutting-edge technologies, is mostly responsible for surging U.S. oil and natural gas production.

Hydraulic fracturing involves safely tapping shale and other tight-rock formations by drilling a mile or more below the surface before gradually turning horizontal and continuing several thousand feet more. Thus, a single surface site can accommodate a number of wells. Once the well is drilled, cased and cemented, small perforations are made in the horizontal portion of the well pipe, through which a typical mixture of water (90 percent), sand (9.5 percent) and additives (0.5 percent) is pumped at high pressure to create micro-fractures in the rock that are held open by the grains of sand. Additives play a number of roles, including helping to reduce friction (thereby reducing the amount of pumping pressure from diesel-powered sources, which reduces air emissions) and prevent pipe corrosion, which in turn help protect the environment and boost well efficiency.

Why Fracking?
Safe hydraulic fracturing is the biggest single reason America is having an energy revolution right now, one that has changed the U.S. energy picture from scarcity to abundance. Fracking is letting the U.S. tap vast oil and natural gas reserves that previously were locked away in shale and other tight-rock formations. Up to 95 percent of natural gas wells drilled in the next decade will require hydraulic fracturing. Hydraulic fracturing also is being used to stimulate new production from older wells.

Because of shale and fracking, the International Energy Agency projects that the U.S. could become the world’s leading oil producer by 2015. As for natural gas, the United States is the leading producer in the world, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). EIA estimates total U.S. gas production from 2012 to 2040 will increase 56 percent, with natural gas from shale the leading contributor. The shale gas share of total U.S. production will increase from 40 percent in 2012 to 53 percent in 2040, EIA projects. Simply put, fracking is the engine in the U.S. energy revolution

 

[eclipsenow]

So we can revitalize our seemingly depleting wells via fracking them like crazy and even begin exporting the fracked oil again? Wow! Never imagined that fracking was that freakin effective! That is really awesome! IMHO!


What is Fracking?

Yeah, except for the bit where itgives people health problems, poisons water for cattle, adds to climate change, oh, and only works for about 2 years before you have to move onto the next well. Yeah, it's great, apart from ruining the country and getting you even more addicted to a resource that will ultimately run out one day. While the rest of the world works towards weaning off oil, you'll be left with antiquated internal combustion engines and superannuation schemes over invested in a past infrastructure. Don't say I didn't warn you when your stockmarket collapses and your superannuation is worthless.

 

[Radrook]

Yeah, except for the bit where itgives people health problems, poisons water for cattle, adds to climate change, oh, and only works for about 2 years before you have to move onto the next well. Yeah, it's great, apart from ruining the country and getting you even more addicted to a resource that will ultimately run out one day. While the rest of the world works towards weaning off oil, you'll be left with antiquated internal combustion engines and superannuation schemes over invested in a past infrastructure. Don't say I didn't warn you when your stockmarket collapses and your superannuation is worthless.

As the owner of a dental lab calmly told me after I asked for a small raise in salary before he fired me:

"Money makes people do very strange things sometimes!"

That same perspective seems to apply to the human race in general. Place monetary profit as an incentive and all other considerations become of secondary importance.

Pocket the profit, live life to the hilt and let the next generation deal with the consequences. Sooner or later that irresponsible short sighted policy will cease to be possible. But in the meantime-if they can get away with it humans will even attempt to rationalize it to themselves as the right thing to do in order to continue doing it with a perfectly good conscience..

 

[Dave Watchman]

I believe God created the earth with oil in it.

Just like He could have created a loaf of raisin bread with raisins in it.

I believe that He did too. Created with every last drop of oil that we will ever need while we are here.

You must enjoy it here - 14 years, 50000 posts !! Why?

That's nothing compared to AV; he's got over 3 million posts to his name, and has been on here for a comparatively long time.

Now that is definitely impressive!

This guy: AV1611VET

Yeah, that's him. I find him fun.

Me too. I was reading one of his interactions where he was accused by another poster of claiming that the earth had "embedded age". So being as how I'm not too smart, I decided to Google the phrase "embedded age" to see if I could figure out what he was talking about.

In the process I found a Wiki page that was quoting AV1611VET right at the top of the article. That's got to be rare.

King James Only - RationalWiki

AV1611VET, Christian Forums

After reading some more of Kylie's and AV1611VET's interactions, I finally figured out what the "embedded age" is referring to. Who knows, maybe AV can coin a new phrase that will be recognized by the scientific community in years to come.

 

[Radrook]

No.

Revelation 6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

Looks to me like oil exists in the Tribulation period, as the rider of the black horse is given instructions about it.

So I'm not interested in those who say we're going to run out of oil.

Keep in mind too, that we are going to spend another thousand years here on Earth after the Tribulation period ends; so it looks like your scientific end-of-the-world scenario by way of oil depletion is SOL (short on luck).

Interesting concept!

 

[eclipsenow]

Revelation 6:6 And I heard a voice in the midst of the four beasts say, A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny; and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.​

This is about food rationing during a war and time of crisis. It's got nothing to do with rock-oil (petroleum) and is to do with olive oil and cooking oil. Context, people, context. This is another prime example of how AVVET just cannot appreciate the context of what he's reading, and maybe needs to get out of the KJV only cult and read a version in modern English to help his poor comprehension?

There is NOTHING in the bible about whether rock-oil (petro-leum) will be around when the Lord returns. Zero. Zip. Nadda.
There is NOTHING in the bible that even indicates when he will return: as far as I can tell, Pentecost and the gospel going out to the nations was pretty much a fulfilment of everything in the Old Testament. So the Lord could return tonight, or in another 50,000 years. We just don't know!

So, given wisdom literature and biblical planning for the future, we must keep the gospel first in our lives and passions, but not at the expense of social issues and love for our neighbour. The 2 go hand in hand. And being informed on how our use of resources impacts our neighbour is an important witness! So, with both wisdom and loving use of resources in mind, I again advise the following:-

Get your super out of oil!
The once unstoppable force of international oil corporations are peaking and starting their inevitable decline in the 2020's. The graph below shows Electric Vehicles displacing oil, and creating an ever larger gap between oil production and demand. Oil is going to CRASH! But that's nothing — absolutely nothing — compared to how the car industry itself is going to crash.

Robot cars are going to annihilate the car industry. Without a driver's salary, robot-taxi's will be dirt cheap to hire. It is estimated that 1 robot taxi will kill 10 to 30 ordinary oil cars. The vast majority of us will just not need to buy cars ever again. That means the end of car-as-product and start of a new era of corporations selling us transport-as-a-service.

So get your superannuation out of oil and out of cars, because the extreme reduction of both could be just over a decade away!

​

 

[Radrook]

​

Get your super out of oil!
The once unstoppable force of international oil corporations are peaking and starting their inevitable decline in the 2020's. The graph below shows Electric Vehicles displacing oil, and creating an ever larger gap between oil production and demand. Oil is going to CRASH! But that's nothing — absolutely nothing — compared to how the car industry itself is going to crash.

Robot cars are going to annihilate the car industry. Without a driver's salary, robot-taxi's will be dirt cheap to hire. It is estimated that 1 robot taxi will kill 10 to 30 ordinary oil cars. The vast majority of us will just not need to buy cars ever again. That means the end of car-as-product and start of a new era of corporations selling us transport-as-a-service.

So get your superannuation out of oil and out of cars, because the extreme reduction of both could be just over a decade away!

​

One would expect such corporations to attempt to sabotage any emerging industry which poses the type of devastating financial danger you describe. Is there any indication that this is taking place?

 

[eclipsenow]

One would expect such corporations to attempt to sabotage any emerging industry which poses the type of devastating financial danger you describe. Is there any indication that this is taking place?

Did you not see "Who killed the Electric Car?" But now that Elon Musk is on the scene, they're all retooling as fast as they can. He started the war. I don't know if he'll finish it, but he's across so many things maybe Tesla will be unkillable.

 

[Radrook]

Did you not see "Who killed the Electric Car?" But now that Elon Musk is on the scene, they're all retooling as fast as they can. He started the war. I don't know if he'll finish it, but he's across so many things maybe Tesla will be unkillable.

No I haven't but will view it on youtube if available. Thanks for the reference.
This article provides a backround on it.
Who Killed the Electric Car? - Wikipedia

It mentions oil companies, car companies and even the US government under George W. Bush being in on it. Disgusting!

 

[eclipsenow]

No I haven't but will view it on youtube if available. Thanks for the reference.
This article provides a backround on it.
Who Killed the Electric Car? - Wikipedia

It mentions oil companies, car companies and even the US government under George W. Bush being in on it. Disgusting!

I guess other than "Who killed the electric car?", what can they do now that an idealist like Elon Musk really wants to make oil irrelevant? Once the initial price of the car comes down low enough, electricity is about half the price per km than oil. Now given oil is about a quarter of the price of the car over its lifetime, and the others are purchase of the car, servicing of the car, and taxes and insurance etc, EV's have not been that attractive while they've been priced so high. Only now that they're coming down in price will they become really attractive to the majority.

 

[Traveling teacher]

They still hafta overcome recharging and long range

 

[eclipsenow]

They still hafta overcome recharging and long range

Not at all! You're still thinking in the 20th century. Ranges are getting better, and there is already an exponential growth curve on EV purchases. But all this could soon be utterly irrelevant when robot-taxis take over. As I say on my blog:

7. The end of the fuel ‘chicken and egg’ Catch-22.
You know the ‘chicken and egg’ problem — no company wants to build a hydrogen highway because there are no hydrogen customers, and no customers want to buy a hydrogen car because they is no hydrogen highway yet. The companies don’t want to lose a billion dollars building infrastructure that may not get used, and the customer doesn’t want to invest $25,000 in a car that may not have a fuelling infrastructure. The robot-taxi solves all this. The car company has guaranteed customers hiring their vehicles on an as-needs basis. The customers are making a spot-decision about hiring a car for the next 14 minutes, not buying one for the next 14 years! We will not care what the car runs on or how it was recharged.

Scenario: a busy afternoon. The new robot-taxi has a range of 300 km and a group calls it on their phone. The taxi turns up, the party climbs in, and off they go. They notice it’s a new model, but don’t really even care if it has a new charging port or runs on hydrogen, they’re too busy in a gaming contest on their phones. The new robot-taxi reaches its 150km range, and advises that it is now out of range and just pulling over so they can climb into the next cab, and they’ll be getting a 10% discount for the inconvenience. Last year’s model on the regular infrastructure takes them the rest of the way.

Robot-taxis mean everything is just so flexible, from houses not needing driveways or garages any longer to cars working together to get people where they want to go. Not only that, these cars are going to be working or recharging 24/7. They’ll burn out in a year or two, and so society will have a constant turnover of vehicles. In other words, we’ll always be hiring the latest thing! But if a company decides to change their charging plug, they can do it bit by bit maintaining coverage of the entire area as the new cars gradually replace the old. You won’t care. If anything goes wrong, another taxi will be along to serve you. Indeed, one city might have a few different companies running any number of different charging systems and it could still work. We’re just hiring that car for that trip. Chances are, some combination of robot-taxi and train will take you were you’re going.

Share this:

 

[Radrook]

They still hafta overcome recharging and long range

So you are saying that it would not significantly cut down on pollution?

 

[doubtingmerle]

Not at all! You're still thinking in the 20th century. Ranges are getting better, and there is already an exponential growth curve on EV purchases. But all this could soon be utterly irrelevant when robot-taxis take over. As I say on my blog:

7. The end of the fuel ‘chicken and egg’ Catch-22.
You know the ‘chicken and egg’ problem — no company wants to build a hydrogen highway because there are no hydrogen customers, and no customers want to buy a hydrogen car because they is no hydrogen highway yet. The companies don’t want to lose a billion dollars building infrastructure that may not get used, and the customer doesn’t want to invest $25,000 in a car that may not have a fuelling infrastructure. The robot-taxi solves all this. The car company has guaranteed customers hiring their vehicles on an as-needs basis. The customers are making a spot-decision about hiring a car for the next 14 minutes, not buying one for the next 14 years! We will not care what the car runs on or how it was recharged.

Scenario: a busy afternoon. The new robot-taxi has a range of 300 km and a group calls it on their phone. The taxi turns up, the party climbs in, and off they go. They notice it’s a new model, but don’t really even care if it has a new charging port or runs on hydrogen, they’re too busy in a gaming contest on their phones. The new robot-taxi reaches its 150km range, and advises that it is now out of range and just pulling over so they can climb into the next cab, and they’ll be getting a 10% discount for the inconvenience. Last year’s model on the regular infrastructure takes them the rest of the way.

Robot-taxis mean everything is just so flexible, from houses not needing driveways or garages any longer to cars working together to get people where they want to go. Not only that, these cars are going to be working or recharging 24/7. They’ll burn out in a year or two, and so society will have a constant turnover of vehicles. In other words, we’ll always be hiring the latest thing! But if a company decides to change their charging plug, they can do it bit by bit maintaining coverage of the entire area as the new cars gradually replace the old. You won’t care. If anything goes wrong, another taxi will be along to serve you. Indeed, one city might have a few different companies running any number of different charging systems and it could still work. We’re just hiring that car for that trip. Chances are, some combination of robot-taxi and train will take you were you’re going.

Share this: