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What Happens when Oil Runs Out?

doubtingmerle

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I believe God created the earth with oil in it.

Just like He could have created a loaf of raisin bread with raisins in it.
Ah, but could he have made a loaf of bread that kept making its own raisins without violating the current laws of physics? The claim here was that the earth would keep on making as much oil as we consume.
 
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eclipsenow

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With such overburden pressure still exerted on them for very long periods of time (millions of years) then all hydrocarbons by geopressure would already be at the Earth's surface.
Ridiculous. Go back and do geology 101. The pressures involved are well understood, and types of rock that trap oil from migrating up through permeable rocks like sandstone are all understood. Read about shale, and understand some geology for primary school kids. A primary school science teacher would fail the rubbish you're spewing here.

But such is not the case in most places. This then would lead one to think the Earth is not as old as the evolutionary geologists present.
Honestly, the Christians around at the time of Darwin did not have a problem with his theory. Literalistic reading of Genesis 1 is not just bad reading, it's bad theology and missing the gems that are there. Let alone being appalling science!

The small mountian ridge on the westside of Vernal Utah is known as asphaltic ridge, for a reason - you can climb up half way or so and stop and listen in silence. What you will hear is asphalt oozing/seeping out of the sandstone rock by drops and splats occurring. The geopressure is the Unita Basin, and flow is up strata orientation towards the Uinta Mountians.
Yeah, so how about we extrapolate one field's experience to all fields? Hey? How scientific would that be?
 
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eclipsenow

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I believe God created the earth with oil in it.
Just like He could have created a loaf of raisin bread with raisins in it.
Do you also believe you have to push a camel through the eye of a needle to get to heaven? Honestly creationist's frustrate me with their stubborn refusal to see the obvious metaphors and poetry in Genesis 1, to the point where I wonder if they read other obvious parables literally as well! It's sad that they end up in a completely unnecessary war with science, but even sadder that they miss the theological gold in Genesis 1 by reading it as a boring, dry old engineering manual! If it was just a step-by-step guide to how God did it, what on earth do we learn from it? It's arbitrary and bores me to tears! How about you get all excited by me outlining every little detail I did last week?
As a Theistic Evolutionist (TE) I see Creationism as simply poor reading. I personally feel sorry for modern day Creationists, not just because they have to live in such terrible fear of everything 'sciencey' that indicates an old earth, but because they're missing out on the theological *gold* that is in Genesis 1 because of their literalistic reading of it!
This is some great stuff by Dr John Dickson, read this!
 
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Radrook

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Here is a little experiment: When our fuel gauges get close to empty next time, I will try the "go to the gas station" solution and you can try the "pray" solution. Then we can report back on which solution got us the most additional miles on our car.

You in?
That sounds like what Stalin told teachers to do with school children.

"Ask God for candy!"" the teacher would say. After the children did so and no candy appeared the teacher would say.

"Now ask Comrade Stalin for candy!" and the kids were immediately showered with all sorts of sweets. LOL!
 
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eclipsenow

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That sounds like what Stalin told teachers to do with school children.

"Ask God for candy!"" the teacher would say. After the children did so and no candy appeared the teacher would say.

"Now ask Comrade Stalin for candy!" and the kids were immediately showered with all sorts of sweets. LOL!
How has such an important topic as sustainability become such a joke for Christians? Yes, we are to seek first God's kingdom, that's a given. Yes we are not to worry about the future, but to trust God with it. But we are also to care. We are to think and plan ahead. Not worry, but care. See the difference? Otherwise Jesus is immediately contradicting the wisdom literature of the bible. For example, Proverbs 6 has caring about the future in mind! Thinking about consequences, and not just "trusting in God" to get you out of the consequences coming to you!

6Go to the ant, you sluggard; consider its ways and be wise! 7It has no commander, no overseer or ruler, 8yet it stores its provisions in summer and gathers its food at harvest. 9How long will you lie there, you sluggard? When will you get up from your sleep?

10A little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to rest— 11and poverty will come on you like a thief and scarcity like an armed man.


If ever a verse applied to peak oil, it is that one! With that verse in mind, watch this preview! I almost had an opportunity to meet the oil expert Kjell Aleklett who starts the preview, but was sick on the day.

We're just sleepwalking into the future, resting in the knowledge that 'they' will just come up with something. 'They' have! The big oil corporations want us to consume every last drop, their many billions in CEO kickbacks depend on it! So 'their' plan is to do precisely nothing, and enjoy the profits as oil prices skyrocket over the next few years and decades, bankrupting the modern world!
 
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Abraxos

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What if I told you, that Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy were real? We know how oil was formed because we can see the first stages of it today at the bottom of our oceans, and we can use science to understand the geological time, processes, heat and pressure that cooked up that biomass into the chemical structure we see today. We're finding a geology that is entirely consistent with fossil oil, and we search for oil based on the story what geology tells us according to this theory. Prediction works, we drill, we find oil.View attachment 197188Yes, there are methane seas on Titan that presumably did not come from life. But that's not what we're finding here. It all fits with the science of an old earth. I don't know but I'm forced to wonder, do you reject fossil oil because of any young earth creationist sympathies?
Oil is not a fossil fuel. How could it be if there is little to no makeup of organic materials in it? No proteins, no amino acids, just hydrocarbon chemicals. Even your picture is flawed as marine animals do not die and sink to the bottom and get buried overtime. That just doesn't occur in reality. They float to the surface and get eaten or dissipate in a relatively short amount of time.

When I learned about this, there was no previous perceptions about the earth being old or young. I know of teachers and pastors (Kent Hovind) that accept oil as squished organisms. Regardless, it's simply a natural process that occurs in the earth through serpentization and F-T reactions.

This is significant because it shows that oil is not a finite resource (valuable if in short supply) but an inexhaustible and renewable resource that big oil corporations should never had been able to monopolize on.
 
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Traveling teacher

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living in texas ...from what I hear we have enough oil for at least 100+ years....
fracking had dramaticaly decreased in cost the lastr few years and has increased oil production to double in texas in the past 6-8 years and expected to keep rising......

fracking produces 1000 gallons per barrel a day compared to the old 30-50 gpb
 
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eclipsenow

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Oil is not a fossil fuel. How could it be if there is little to no makeup of organic materials in it? No proteins, no amino acids, just hydrocarbon chemicals. Even your picture is flawed as marine animals do not die and sink to the bottom and get buried overtime. That just doesn't occur in reality. They float to the surface and get eaten or dissipate in a relatively short amount of time.
Puhlease!

Petroleum is a fossil fuel derived from ancient fossilized organic materials, such as zooplankton and algae.[57] Vast quantities of these remains settled to sea or lake bottoms, mixing with sediments and being buried under anoxic conditions. As further layers settled to the sea or lake bed, intense heat and pressure build up in the lower regions. This process caused the organic matter to change, first into a waxy material known as kerogen, which is found in various oil shales around the world, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons via a process known as catagenesis. Formation of petroleum occurs from hydrocarbon pyrolysis in a variety of mainly endothermic reactions at high temperature and/or pressure.[58]...
....An alternative mechanism was proposed by Russian scientists in the mid-1850s, the hypothesis of abiogenic petroleum origin, but this is contradicted by geological and geochemical evidence.[61] Abiogenic (formed by inorganic means) sources of oil have been found, but never in commercially profitable amounts. The controversy isn't over whether abiogenic oil reserves exist, said Larry Nation of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. The controversy is over how much they contribute to Earth's overall reserves and how much time and effort geologists should devote to seeking them out.[62]
Petroleum - Wikipedia

Want to SEE IT!? Go to 14 minutes 30 seconds here. This is from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's "Crude, the incredibly journey of oil". You can watch a rain of algae falling to the sea floor.

This is significant because it shows that oil is not a finite resource (valuable if in short supply) but an inexhaustible and renewable resource that big oil corporations should never had been able to monopolize on.
Then why isn't it replenishing in existing wells, and why did Hubbert's 1956 prediction of American peak oil happen right on schedule in 1970, hey? Those wells just aren't filling up again, are they?:doh:

Algae raining down to the sea-floor is SUCH a well known phenomenon that some climate scientists have recommended fertilising the ocean with iron filings to try and stimulate more of it, so that the algae sequesters our excess CO2 on the ocean floor. Sorry, but you're on an extreme position here like "The Moon Landing was faked."
 
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eclipsenow

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living in texas ...from what I hear we have enough oil for at least 100+ years....
fracking had dramaticaly decreased in cost the lastr few years and has increased oil production to double in texas in the past 6-8 years and expected to keep rising......

fracking produces 1000 gallons per barrel a day compared to the old 30-50 gpb

Incorrect. They might kick start the process again, but as I said above:

Even National Geographic is not that hopeful about Texas!

The IEA report projects that U.S. domestic oil supplies, dominated by fracking, will begin to decline by 2020. "As tight oil output in the United States levels off, and non-OPEC supply falls back in the 2020s," the report says, "the Middle East becomes the major source of supply growth."

Earlier this year the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) also forecast a plateau in U.S. oil production after 2020.

Or, as this geophysicist says, it goes down fast AND the 'resource' present in a field is not necessarily the estimated ultimate recovery, because what you extract depends on economics.

Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production).......
....Worldwide the level of debt of the energy industry stands at a record high of $2.5 trillion at a time that the value of assets backing these loans stands at a record low. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come.
 
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Heissonear

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I'm with Merle on this one. It's been decades since we've found more oil than we've consumed. The last time we found about as much as we consumed was back in 1990. Since then we're burning more and more oil, and discovering less and less. Today we're burning oil our grandparents discovered. That black line is consumption, the grey bars going way down is past discovery.

growinggap3.jpg



Even National Geographic is not that hopeful about fracking replacing the difference long term, and says you'll only get a few years. Poor fracking, we were only just getting to know (and truly hate) you!

The IEA report projects that U.S. domestic oil supplies, dominated by fracking, will begin to decline by 2020. "As tight oil output in the United States levels off, and non-OPEC supply falls back in the 2020s," the report says, "the Middle East becomes the major source of supply growth."

Earlier this year the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) also forecast a plateau in U.S. oil production after 2020.

Or, as this geophysicist says, it goes down fast AND the 'resource' present in a field is not necessarily the estimated ultimate recovery, because what you extract depends on economics.

Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production).......
....Worldwide the level of debt of the energy industry stands at a record high of $2.5 trillion at a time that the value of assets backing these loans stands at a record low. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come.

Peak oil is a thing. I found out about it way back in 2004, which was a really tough period in my life because my wonderful 5 year old boy was having chemo for Leukaemia. Being the primary carer in hospital, I wasn't really getting enough sleep or able to care for myself normally. And yet the implications of peak oil were so awful I burned the candle at both ends, even during that difficult time! I wrote articles on it for Christian websites and magazines, and could not just forget about it. I formed a group that presented material to minority parties in the NSW parliament! It became a part of my ethical framework as a Christian. What right does this generation have to burn up all the oil? What are we going to do if it starts to run down? What are we going to do because we are literally eating fossil fuels, and it takes 10 calories of oil and gas energy to grow 1 calorie of food energy?

The good news is that I am firmly convinced we have the technology to replace oil and will have cleaner cities as a result. It's just the timing. We've left it so late, are we facing a Greater Depression? What drastic emergency measures will we face? I've compiled some of them here: what if we face a really
Sudden oil crisis
Gee, where do I start?

So many statements are inaccurate.

For one, since about the year 2006, every one year since then we have found more additional oil and gas reserves. Shale hydrocarbons have changed everything, in known hydrocarbon reserves in the world.

So current there is no peak oil in sight until we stop finding more extracable hydrocarbons at the pace we are, by the year.

Shale reserves has successively increased in amounts by the year since ~2006. One such case is within the eastern Mediterranean Sea since 2010, two new large field discoveries for Israel and others. The trend in finding new reserves is steep over the past 15 years.

The IEA info and graft you presented is way outdated and needs corrections. It shows peak in oil reserves in the year 2001.

e01-prod_disc.png


And the graph you presented does not include the increased usage scenarios. The below with usage scenrios is also significantly outdated. It does not include the yet to be understood shale oil & gas reserves contributions.

figure3 (1).jpg


With knowledged gained between 5 to 10 years ago, we now know Great Britain has massive shale gas and oil reservoirs, with some shale reserves varying in thickness from 500 feet to 10,000 feet. In comparison, some of the major shale formations in the United States currently being drilled and produced in average in thickness between 100 feet to 400 feet?

Old information exists. Time to catch up by the year! And its misinformation to say it has been decades since we found new reserves.
 
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Heissonear

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Incorrect. They might kick start the process again, but as I said above:

Even National Geographic is not that hopeful about Texas!

The IEA report projects that U.S. domestic oil supplies, dominated by fracking, will begin to decline by 2020. "As tight oil output in the United States levels off, and non-OPEC supply falls back in the 2020s," the report says, "the Middle East becomes the major source of supply growth."

Earlier this year the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) also forecast a plateau in U.S. oil production after 2020.

Or, as this geophysicist says, it goes down fast AND the 'resource' present in a field is not necessarily the estimated ultimate recovery, because what you extract depends on economics.

Firstly, shale oil requires continuous drilling as the production of wells declines rapidly (with typically about 50-60 % of production during the first year of production).......
....Worldwide the level of debt of the energy industry stands at a record high of $2.5 trillion at a time that the value of assets backing these loans stands at a record low. The day of reckoning may be postponed but one day it will come.
Yet again statements that are not true are presented. Have you heard of the Eagle Ford in Texas? How about West Texas Permian Shales. The latest major shale reserve discovery is the Wolfcamp.

Hydrocarbon output, even in America, is the opposite to what you state.

Major finds since ~2006 continue, and their production are massive. As the Bakken in the North Dakota region peaks in maturity to max daily output it isvestimated to contribute from 5 to 10% of the hydrocabons produced in the U.S., as per 2015 known U.S. reserves.

Your information needs to be updated from busy production engineers and from oil field news sites like World Oil, Oil & Gas Journal, and the like which furnish daily and weekly data and information.

Try Global Upstream Oil, Gas News | World Oil Online or the like.

dodge-shale-plays (1).jpg


The Marcellus and Utica shales in the U.S. cover several states and hold major amounts of extractable hydrocarbons.
 
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eclipsenow

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I don't think you hear anything that doesn't sit within your fossil-fuel worldview. The National Geographic article and geophysicist I quoted couldn't be more clear: these deposits are vast, but only have certain 'sweet spots' that can be economically extracted. Look up a geologist's definition of RESOURCE and their definition of RESERVES. They are 2 very, very different things, and yet both describe oil in the ground. Learn the difference! Then learn what National Geographic was talking about when they said the RESERVES were limited, and going to be in trouble after 2020.

Eagle Ford peaked. Party didn't last long, did it? Just as National Geographic said. Uttica does appear to have huge resources, but how much of it is reserves?

Not enough Utica wells in Pennsylvania have been producing gas long enough to draw any conclusions about their consistency or how much gas will ultimately be recoverable from the wells.

“They’re new,” said James Ladlee, associate director of Penn State’s Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research. “We don't know how they are going to hold up over time.”

Despite the promising early results, no one expects the Utica in Pennsylvania to be developed at the breathless rate that the Marcellus was in its busiest years.

Utica wells are deeper and more expensive to drill. More importantly, natural gas prices have declined as production from the Marcellus overwhelmed demand and outpaced the development of pipelines to take the gas out of the region to more lucrative markets.

“Back then, the Marcellus was the only superstar-type play occurring in that part of the northeast, and then it turned out to be a victim of its own success,” Ms. Haas said.

“I think to the extent that the dry Utica will develop, it will probably be at a more measured pace,” she said. “The last thing everybody wants is to create more dry-gas-on-dry-gas competition.”
The 'monster' beneath the Marcellus
Marcellus may be in trouble.
By Bill PowersOne of the little spoken truths of the shale gas industry over the past three years has been that most of America’s gas fields are now experiencing production declines with one large exception: the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania.And that narrow reliance on one play gets even more concentrated—the North American natural gas market has morphed from relying on the entire Marcellus to provide all of the continent’s production growth a year ago—to now hoping that growth in select Pennsylvania counties will sustain current trends.

Unfortunately, in addition to production declines in West Virginia, Pennsylvania Marcellus production is now in decline in two of its three most prolific counties.

The Marcellus is close to Peak Production and why this is so Important
Ultimately from a climate change point of view we should not burn the remaining oil, let alone all the gas and coal. This has got to stop one way or another!
 
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doubtingmerle

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I'm with Merle on this one.
And I am with you on a lot of things. We agree that oil will become increasingly hard to find; we agree that this will be a disaster unless we have adequate alternatives; we agree that things like solar and nuclear power can be part of that alternate plan; and we agree that making plans for a future without oil is important. We disagree, perhaps, on the extent of the risks associated with nuclear power.

The good news is that I am firmly convinced we have the technology to replace oil and will have cleaner cities as a result. It's just the timing. We've left it so late, are we facing a Greater Depression? What drastic emergency measures will we face? I've compiled some of them here: what if we face a really
Sudden oil crisis
Thanks for sharing that. I do want to read it and get back to you with my comments.
 
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doubtingmerle

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Interesting chart.

It is interesting that the peak of oil discovery came just after WWII. That war was fought largely over oil. The Germans had little supply of oil, and were finding their coal to oil plants inadequate to support the war effort. So they turned on their friends, the oil-rich Russians, to get the oil they needed to finish off the British. From the chart above, it is easy to see how oil was in demand.

But after WWII, we see the great discoveries in Saudi Arabia, Siberia, Alaska, Mexico and the North Sea. Suddenly the world had plenty of oil.

One only hopes that nations do not turn to fighting over the last bit of oil, as the Germans and Russians did in WWII.
 
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Heissonear

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There is a point in time society will run out of hydrocarbons. But don't plan on anytime soon.

Note below a short list of how much hydrocarbon reserves the world has - massive amounts of hydrocarbons to oxidize into CO2.

Our world has no CO2 problem. We have Alarmist and Extremists problem cancerous to our modern society. Like what Governor Brown in California is executing through regulations. Dumb. Hyper Extremism to a non-problem.

Meanwhile the energy backbone to prospering modern society will continue around dumb Extremists.

20170521_094730.jpg


Gas hydrates on the sea floors is nothing new, just China's recent involvement. Note the last paragraph.

dodge-shale-plays (1).jpg


With shale reserves still being discovered in suppling modern society prosperous middle class standard of living for hopefully many still in need to be helped from poverty.

248590_bc8232ca4bc466f8501f445541826c48.png
 
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AV1611VET

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Ah, but could he have made a loaf of bread that kept making its own raisins without violating the current laws of physics?
No.
doubtingmerle said:
The claim here was that the earth would keep on making as much oil as we consume.
Earth either has never made oil in the first place, or it has made oil somehow within the space of only 6120 years.

I vote the former: Earth has never produced its own oil.
 
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AV1611VET

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Do you also believe you have to push a camel through the eye of a needle to get to heaven?
No.
eclipsenow said:
Honestly creationist's frustrate me with their stubborn refusal to see the obvious metaphors and poetry in Genesis 1,
I'm sure Plato felt the same way.
eclipsenow said:
... to the point where I wonder if they read other obvious parables literally as well!
An "obvious parable" in the Bible is a parable that is labeled a parable.

Matthew 13:33 Another parable spake he unto them;

Luke 5:36 And he spake also a parable unto them;

Luke 13:6 He spake also this parable;

Luke 15:3 And he spake this parable unto them, saying,

Luke 18:1 And he spake a parable unto them to this end, that men ought always to pray, and not to faint;

Luke 18:9 And he spake this parable ...

Luke 19:11 And as they heard these things, he added and spake a parable,

Luke 21:29 And he spake to them a parable; Behold the fig tree, and all the trees;

John 10:6 This parable spake Jesus unto them:

Get the picture? the Bible usually alerts the reader as to an incoming parable.

Your Genesis 1 parable doesn't qualify as an "obvious parable."

And not to further frustrate you, let me ask you this:

Who says Jesus' parables weren't events that actually occurred and were witnessed?
eclipsenow said:
It's sad that they end up in a completely unnecessary war with science,
Then let science surrender and we'll take her prisoner and treat her like she should be treated: a gift from God.
eclipsenow said:
... but even sadder that they miss the theological gold in Genesis 1 by reading it as a boring, dry old engineering manual!
What you call 'theological gold' is what James describes as:

James 5:3 Your gold and silver is cankered; and the rust of them shall be a witness against you, and shall eat your flesh as it were fire. Ye have heaped treasure together for the last days.

Real gold neither rusts nor tarnishes.

Your appropriately-named fool's gold does, though.
eclipsenow said:
If it was just a step-by-step guide to how God did it, what on earth do we learn from it?
Um ... we learn step by step how God did it? not to mention where He did it, how He did it, what order He did it in, and how long it took Him to do it?
eclipsenow said:
It's arbitrary and bores me to tears!
To each his own, I guess.
eclipsenow said:
How about you get all excited by me outlining every little detail I did last week?
No, thanks.
eclipsenow said:
As a Theistic Evolutionist (TE) I see Creationism as simply poor reading.
Really? I mean: really?

So the universe starting out at zero mass/energy, then being raised to its current level doesn't give you goosebumps, like it does me?

If someone could do that in a lab, scientists would go nuts dancing in the streets.

You'd think it was 9/11 all over again!
eclipsenow said:
I personally feel sorry for modern day Creationists,
I'm sure they don't need your sorrow.
eclipsenow said:
... not just because they have to live in such terrible fear of everything 'sciencey' that indicates an old earth,
Ya ... I stay in the shadows and keep my blinds down at night, thinking science is out to get me. :doh:
eclipsenow said:
... but because they're missing out on the theological *gold* that is in Genesis 1 because of their literalistic reading of it!
More like it's fool's gold, if it's gold at all: as I said earlier.
 
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eclipsenow

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Interesting chart.

It is interesting that the peak of oil discovery came just after WWII. That war was fought largely over oil. The Germans had little supply of oil, and were finding their coal to oil plants inadequate to support the war effort. So they turned on their friends, the oil-rich Russians, to get the oil they needed to finish off the British. From the chart above, it is easy to see how oil was in demand.

But after WWII, we see the great discoveries in Saudi Arabia, Siberia, Alaska, Mexico and the North Sea. Suddenly the world had plenty of oil.

One only hopes that nations do not turn to fighting over the last bit of oil, as the Germans and Russians did in WWII.
The horror of that story for me is from a climate concern: what if the big oil companies suddenly rush into Coal-to-liquids? We'll cook the planet 5 times over if we get addicted to CTL! This is where I really hope robot-taxi-cabs come online so fast and so cheap to hire that we witness the end of private car ownership as the dominant means of transport. The side effect will be that it also means the end of oil! Sadly, the next side effect will be more social and community concern, I can't see how robot-taxi-cabs and New Urbanism will work together. Cheap transport anywhere you want will probably mean suburbia continues in America, unless of course the culture gets utterly sick of it. This is one reason I use emotional hooks like "New Urbanism and the Gilmore Girls".
 
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Abraxos

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Just to alter the direction a bit to address eclipsenow's issue about the use of crude oil and methane gas because of climate change... that's fake. Or at least there is no evidence for man made climate change. In actuality, the earth needs more carbon dioxide.
 
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eclipsenow

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With shale reserves still being discovered in suppling modern society prosperous middle class standard of living for hopefully many still in need to be helped from poverty.

You do like to post wild claims without any supporting evidence. Where are these shale oils being discovered, and what rate of them are economically recoverable RESERVES as opposed to RESOURCES? Once again, you just brush aside the most pertinent questions put to you and re-assert. As I said above:

I don't think you hear anything that doesn't sit within your fossil-fuel worldview. The National Geographic article and geophysicist I quoted couldn't be more clear: these deposits are vast, but only have certain 'sweet spots' that can be economically extracted. Look up a geologist's definition of RESOURCE and their definition of RESERVES. They are 2 very, very different things, and yet both describe oil in the ground. Learn the difference! Then learn what National Geographic was talking about when they said the RESERVES were limited, and going to be in trouble after 2020.

Eagle Ford peaked. Party didn't last long, did it? Just as National Geographic said. Uttica does appear to have huge resources, but how much of it is reserves?

Not enough Utica wells in Pennsylvania have been producing gas long enough to draw any conclusions about their consistency or how much gas will ultimately be recoverable from the wells.

“They’re new,” said James Ladlee, associate director of Penn State’s Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research. “We don't know how they are going to hold up over time.”

Despite the promising early results, no one expects the Utica in Pennsylvania to be developed at the breathless rate that the Marcellus was in its busiest years.

Utica wells are deeper and more expensive to drill. More importantly, natural gas prices have declined as production from the Marcellus overwhelmed demand and outpaced the development of pipelines to take the gas out of the region to more lucrative markets.

“Back then, the Marcellus was the only superstar-type play occurring in that part of the northeast, and then it turned out to be a victim of its own success,” Ms. Haas said.

“I think to the extent that the dry Utica will develop, it will probably be at a more measured pace,” she said. “The last thing everybody wants is to create more dry-gas-on-dry-gas competition.”

The 'monster' beneath the Marcellus
Marcellus may be in trouble.
By Bill PowersOne of the little spoken truths of the shale gas industry over the past three years has been that most of America’s gas fields are now experiencing production declines with one large exception: the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania.And that narrow reliance on one play gets even more concentrated—the North American natural gas market has morphed from relying on the entire Marcellus to provide all of the continent’s production growth a year ago—to now hoping that growth in select Pennsylvania counties will sustain current trends.

Unfortunately, in addition to production declines in West Virginia, Pennsylvania Marcellus production is now in decline in two of its three most prolific counties.

The Marcellus is close to Peak Production and why this is so Important

Ultimately from a climate change point of view we should not burn the remaining oil, let alone all the gas and coal. This has got to stop one way or another!
 
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