Without mentioning Trump or Democracy, why do you support Joe Biden for President.

FenderTL5

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The stated hypothesis is that blue government equals less violent crime. .
That's not true either.
The stated hypothsis was that these issues are more impactful at a state level than with cities. DC is a city, not a state.
Here's the post:
It's not the mayors. It's the laws and culture in each state. Mayors really have little control over many things that affect crime rates. As mentioned earlier 8 of the 10 states with highest crime rates are red, and two of the 10 states with lowest crime rates are red (Utah and Wyoming).


California, which has a rather high crime rate, is #17 for crime. Highest blue state. Illinois is #19. Maryland is #24. Michigan is #11. Ohio is #33.

There is a pretty good correlation between the crime rate in a city and the color of the state in which it's located.

As someone mentioned, there is the fact that the southeastern US is mostly red. And correlation doesn't prove causation. But the same laws and culture that keep a large portion of the population poor and uneducated would seem to also account for higher crime rates in those states.
 
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The Barbarian

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According to your source, Washington DC leads the nation in violent crime with a 2020 rate of 999.8 per 100,000. No one would argue that Washington DC is "red".
Nor is it a state. It's a city. And it's clear why you're avoiding an apples-to-apples comparison...

Sure we have. Washington DC is very blue and yet has the highest crime rate in the nation.

I just pointed out to you that correlation isn't necessarily causation. I know you also say that. But you don't mean it. Like you comparing the crime rate of a city to that of states. And it's pointless anyway. For example, FBI data puts the violent crime index for Washington DC at 56.2. The same index for St. Louis, MO is 86.8.

Currently, Washington, DC is 24th among American cities for violent crime.

You seem to have made my point for me.

Clearly there are other factors at work.
Poverty and education, as I already pointed out to you. But so far, neither of these seem to be major factors in the much higher violent crime rates of red states. Can you name one other than red state status?


One important fact. When Hillary Clinton lost to Trump, she conceded, and told her followers to accept it. And they made no attempt to overthrow the government. When Trump lost to Biden, he refused to concede, and told his followers to go to the Capitol and "fight like hell" to stop the election certification. And many of his followers obeyed him. Many of those criminals admitted in court that they did it, because Trump told them to. It's not limited to red states; it's just that people like that are more common in red states.

Is gaslighting the only thing you know how to do?
Just pointing out the data. Even if Hillary had refused to admit that she lost, who would be dumb enough to believe that she would send a mob to overthrow the election. Who's dumb enough to even believe that her supporters would do it? Perhaps you don't know what "gaslighting" means. But you just demonstrated an example:

Here's a compilation of the Democrats talking incessantly about the "stolen" election when Hillary lost, and the violent riots that resulted.

I notice that you don't have one democrat leader saying the election was stolen, but a lot of snipped clips to make it appear so. And since the Mueller investigation showed that Russian agents were trying to swing the election, that much is true. But like their activity for Trump in 2020, it doesn't seem to have been enough actually change the outcome. Show us a checkable link where Clinton says that the 2020 election was stolen.

As you know, Clinton conceded that Trump won, the day after the election and told her followers to accept it and to give Trump a chance. If Trump had been honest and man enough to do that in 2020, he wouldn't be facing prision for his part in trying to overthrow that election.

Did Democrats suggest the 2016 presidential election, won by Donald Trump, was hijacked? The claim is often made by Republicans advancing Trump’s disproven claims that the 2020 presidential election, won by Joe Biden, was stolen by fraudulent vote counting. Youngkin, after some initial hedging, acknowledged last year that Biden was legitimately elected.

Youngkin’s office sent us a number of recordings of prominent Democrats saying that Trump’s 2016 victory was turned by events that occurred during the campaign, especially documented Russian interference on Trump’s behalf.

It’s important to point out, however, that the Democrats did not question the actual counting of ballots in 2016, as Youngkin’s statement implies, or that Trump won the election.
 
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probinson

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That's not true either.
The stated hypothsis was that these issues are more impactful at a state level than with cities. DC is a city, not a state.

Sure. If you mix data from cities will all sorts of different demographics and other countless confounders, you can dilute the data and manipulate it to say whatever you want. You introduce all sorts of confounders that are drastically reduced when you look at a city level, which is I suspect the main reason the theory was introduced that it's somehow more "impactful" at a state level. That's a nifty way to dismiss the remarkably high violent crime rates in cities with "blue" governments.

Also, you'll note that while DC leads the nation in per capita violent crime at 999.8/100,000, "red" Alaska is second at 837.8/100,000. According to Google, the 2020 population of Washington DC is 712,816 while the 2020 population of Alaska is 732,673. Despite the fact that one is a state and one is a district, they have very similar populations.

Of course, the population in DC is much denser than the population in Alaska, and there are a myriad of other differences too numerable to even consider, which is why this whole thing is an exercise in futility.

I don't for one minute believe that those providing this data are doing so objectively. They begin with a conclusion that "red" is bad and "blue" is good and then go data dredging to "prove" that point.
 
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The Barbarian

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There are only a few that would argue that DC is a state.
And most republicans start frothing at the mouth if anyone even suggests it might someday be a state.
 
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The Barbarian

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FenderTL5 said:

That's not true either.
The stated hypothsis was that these issues are more impactful at a state level than with cities. DC is a city, not a state.

Sure. If you mix data from cities will all sorts of different demographics and other countless confounders, you can dilute the data and manipulate it to say whatever you want.
Like pretending a city is a state?
Also, you'll note that while DC leads the nation in per capita violent crime at 999.8/100,000,
What we've done is rank these cities according to the FBI statistics for violent crimes per 100,000 residents per year. That covers robberies, murders, sexual assaults, and aggravated assaults on a per capita basis, to give you a sense of which cities experience the most violent crime.
...

24. Washington, DC

Population: 693,972

Violent Crime rate (per 100,000): 948.74


1. St. Louis, Missouri

Population: 310,284

Violent Crime rate (per 100,000): 2,082.29


C'mon. Anyone can look this up. St. Louis apparently has improved in 2022, the violent crime rate is 1496. But still No. 1 and much higher than in Washington DC.
 
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probinson

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Just pointing out the data. Even if Hillary had refused to admit that she lost, who would be dumb enough to believe that she would send a mob to overthrow the election. Who's dumb enough to even believe that her supporters would do it? Perhaps you don't know what "gaslighting" means. But you just demonstrated an example:

Did you watch the end of the video I posted? There were some pretty violent riots in the streets over the 2016 election fueled by the angry rhetoric of the democrats complaining Trump had "cheated' and "stolen" the election and that he was "illegitimate".

I notice that you don't have one democrat leader saying the election was stolen,

Just a few seconds into the video there quotes from MULTIPLE democrats saying the election was stolen.

but a lot of snipped clips to make it appear so.

No, it's very clear to anyone acquainted with reality that Democrats vehemently fought against Trump's election win in 2016. Unfortunately for those who would like to deny reality, there are receipts all over the Internet.

And since the Mueller investigation showed that Russian agents were trying to swing the election, that much is true

^_^

Two out of three Democrats also claim Russia tampered with vote tallies on Election Day to help the President – something for which there has been no credible evidence.

"You can run the best campaign, you can even become the nominee, and you can have the election stolen from you." -Hillary Clinton
 
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probinson

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C'mon. Anyone can look this up. St. Louis apparently has improved in 2022, the violent crime rate is 1496. But still No. 1 and much higher than in Washington DC.

C'mon! I'm just using the data from your original source. Here's a screenshot:

Screenshot 2023-11-29 at 8.14.18 PM.png


If you don't want Washington D.C. compared to states, maybe don't use a source that does that very thing. It's not my fault you didn't properly vet your source. Although that happens often when confirmation bias kicks in and you find something that fits your narrative. Should be a bit more careful in the future.

I simply followed your link and sorted by 2020 violent crime rate from greatest to least. These are the results FROM YOUR SOURCE.
 
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The Barbarian

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If you don't want Washington D.C. compared to states, maybe don't use a source that does that very thing.
If you call a tail a leg, how many legs does a dog have?
A: four legs. Calling a tail a leg doesn't make it a leg. Puerto Rico is on that list, too. Are you also claiming that Puerto Rico is a state?

C'mon.

I simply followed your link and sorted by 2020 violent crime rate from greatest to least. These are the results FROM YOUR SOURCE.
I get that you are put out that you made such an error. But it's not my fault. You should have been more careful about your sources.

probinson said:

Also, you'll note that while DC leads the nation in per capita violent crime at 999.8/100,000,

What we've done is rank these cities according to the FBI statistics for violent crimes per 100,000 residents per year. That covers robberies, murders, sexual assaults, and aggravated assaults on a per capita basis, to give you a sense of which cities experience the most violent crime.
...

24. Washington, DC

Population: 693,972

Violent Crime rate (per 100,000): 948.74



1. St. Louis, Missouri

Population: 310,284

Violent Crime rate (per 100,000): 2,082.29


The Most Dangerous U.S. Cities, Ranked - RoughMaps


www.roughmaps.com
www.roughmaps.com

You messed up. Just learn from it and go on.
 
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The Barbarian

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Just pointing out the data. Even if Hillary had refused to admit that she lost, who would be dumb enough to believe that she would send a mob to overthrow the election. Who's dumb enough to even believe that her supporters would do it? Perhaps you don't know what "gaslighting" means.

Did you watch the end of the video I posted?
Yeah, I was wondering why they just posted sentence fragments without full sentences in those cuts. Now I know why.

There were some pretty violent riots in the streets over the 2016 election fueled by the angry rhetoric of the democrats complaining Trump had "cheated' and "stolen" the election and that he was "illegitimate".
Hmmm... checkable link for that? No, I didn't think so.

Let's look at that stuff you think is the equivalent of the insurrection Trump ordered:

From Pennsylvania to California, Oregon and Washington hundreds of people hit the streets to voice their opposition to the Republican’s victory over Hillary Clinton.

Police said at least 500 people swarmed on streets in and around UCLA, some shouting anti-Trump expletives and others chanting “Not my president!” There were no immediate arrests.
...
Smaller demonstrators were held at University of California campuses and neighbourhoods in Berkeley, Irvine and Davis and at San Jose State.

In Oakland, more than 100 protesters took to downtown streets. KNTV-TV reported that protesters burned Mr Trump in effigy, smashed windows of the Oakland Tribune newsroom and set tyres and garbage on fire.

The California Highway Patrol says a woman was struck by a car during the protest and severely injured.
...
In Oregon, dozens of people blocked traffic in downtown Portland and forced a delay for trains on two light rail lines.

Media reports say the crowd grew to about 300 people, including some who sat in the middle of the road to block traffic.

The crowd of anti-Trump protesters burned American flags and chanted “That’s not my president.”


In Seattle, a group of about 100 protesters gathered in the Capital Hill neighbourhood, blocked roads and set a garbage bin on fire.

In Pennsylvania, hundreds of University of Pittsburgh students marched through the streets, with some in the crowd calling for unity.


Here's why it amounted to Hillary supporters blocking traffic in a couple of cities and breaking some windows, while Trump's people attacked the Capitol and tried to overturn the election:


Hillary Clinton concedes presidential election to Donald Trump: 'We must accept this result'

Hillary Clinton called on her supporters to accept the US election result on Wednesday, as she delivered a concession speech in New York in which she pressed Donald Trump to hold fast to American values.

“Donald Trump is going to be our president,” she said, speaking at the New Yorker hotel in Manhattan. “We owe him an open mind and a chance to lead.”


This is what Trump told supporters before many stormed Capitol Hill

The president incited those who attended his rally to march to the Capitol.
Let’s take a look at some of those “extremely calming” words from the speech he delivered on Jan. 6:

  • “And we fight. We fight like hell And if you don’t fight like hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”
  • “All of us here today do not want to see our election victory stolen by emboldened radical-left Democrats, which is what they’re doing … We will never give up, we will never concede. It doesn’t happen. You don’t concede when there’s theft involved.”
  • “Our country has had enough. We will not take it anymore and that’s what this is all about … We will stop the steal.”
  • “Because you’ll never take back our country with weakness, you have to show strength and you have to be strong.”
Trump went on to tell Ingraham that the insurrection was just “a protest,” not an insurrection. “It was a protest,” he said. “The insurrection took place on Nov. 3, which was Election Day. This was a protest and a lot of innocent people are being hurt. A lot of innocent people are being injured.” So far, more than 700 people have been charged in connection with the attack on the Capitol.

Some of his people actually planned the insurrection on social media. Made it pretty easy to round up the criminals thereafter.

The storming of Capitol Hill was organized on social media.


"Then it really, really went nuts," Holt says. After Trump promoted a Jan. 6 protest in D.C., "a lot of his extremist supporters interpreted this as a call to action for them."

Holt and his colleagues saw fringe social media sites fill with messages organizing logistics for that date, as well as activation of anti-government extremists like militia groups, conspiracy theorists and white nationalist activists "on a scale and volume that we haven't seen at any other point during the electoral process this cycle."

As it became clear over the last week that Vice President Pence was unlikely to try to overturn the results of the election, Holt says the discussion on the right-wing extremist sites turned to taking matters into their own hands.

On forum boards like TheDonald and antigovernment and militia movement group chats, those conversations included plans to surround the Capitol on all sides, alongside maps of the U.S. Capitol complex marked with locations of tunnels and entry points. "And there was discussion specifically of overwhelming police with large crowds and doing that in order to violate laws against carrying weapons and against entering federal buildings," Holt says.

There wasn't a specific time or a formal plan, "but the discussions to do exactly what we saw [Wednesday] ... this was an idea that was fomenting and spreading and shared approvingly between users in these extremist communities that we've been watching."


Quite a difference, isn't it? Clinton concedes and tells her people to accept Trump as president. Trump refuses to concede and tells his people to "fight like hell." And they do. Now scores of them are going to prison. Maybe Trump, too.
 
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Merrill

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Please explain how Biden's American Rescue Plan triggered inflation, but Trump's two similar stimulus measures didn't.

Please explain how the Inflation Reduction Act has contributed to inflation even though we're only 1.5 years into its 10-year-long execution and inflation has dropped nearly every month since it was signed.




Ah okay, so Biden doesn't get to take credit for reducing the deficits that resulted from the COVID shutdown, but he does have to take the blame for the inflation that stemmed from the disruptions that shutdown caused in the market? Is that about right?





Yeah, and I could look at the states in the Deep South and show that Republicans are terrible at running things, too.

Your list tells you nothing if you don't also look at the good side. Are the safe cities run by Republicans? No, they're not. Nearly all cities, good and bad, dangerous and safe, are run by Democrats. A city like Boston, for example, smokes red states on virtually every metric (except housing affordability). Why don't we use that as our benchmark?
The American Rescue Plan, the CARES Act, and other measures by the government all contributed massively to inflation. Many economists agree with this, but here is an article from the Federal Reserve

So both measures taken in the Trump administration and Biden administrations contributed to inflation. I never said otherwise.

Biden doesn't get credit for reducing deficits, because those deficits were caused by tax shortfalls from the country being completely shutdown, a stock market crash, business disruptions, etc. Likewise, Biden continued Trump's policies of COVID spending, and then launched his own massive spending efforts, like the IRA. This is where we were last year
1701357084388.png

so spending is up almost 80% since Bush was in office, but you want to give Biden credit?

If you are going to stick to the claim that Biden "reduced deficits and the debt" using executive orders and legislation with congress, show me what spending was cut? What programs did Biden cut exactly? How many tax increases did he impose? And how did these cuts balance out the trillions in new spending? He didn't reduce anything--the economy recovered after it was opened back up, and tax revenue came back in

And Biden supported shutting down the US economy, along with every Democrat (something that never should have happened). So the arsonist is now taking credit for putting out fires he created.
 
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iluvatar5150

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The American Rescue Plan, the CARES Act, and other measures by the government all contributed massively to inflation. Many economists agree with this, but here is an article from the Federal Reserve

So both measures taken in the Trump administration and Biden administrations contributed to inflation. I never said otherwise.

Ok.

Looks to me like the stimulus kept us out of a recession:
1701358236993.png



Biden doesn't get credit for reducing deficits, because those deficits were caused by tax shortfalls from the country being completely shutdown, a stock market crash, business disruptions, etc. Likewise, Biden continued Trump's policies of COVID spending, and then launched his own massive spending efforts, like the IRA. This is where we were last year
View attachment 339941
so spending is up almost 80% since Bush was in office, but you want to give Biden credit?

I actually don't want to give him much credit for anything on this front. I was merely pointing out the problem with blaming him for things that were somewhat out of his control while not giving him credit for other things that were also somewhat out of his control.

That said, your chart only goes to 2022 (I assume that's FY2022 and not calendar year 2022). Total federal spending dropped a bit in FY2023, as it has every year that Biden's been in office.
 
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probinson

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Hmmm... checkable link for that?

^_^

Tell me you didn't watch the video without telling me you didn't watch the video.

At the end of the video there is media coverage of the violent riots that ensued after the 2016 election. I know you'd like to pretend like they didn't happen, but they did, and none of your denial will change that fact.
 
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probinson

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Ok.

Looks to me like the stimulus kept us out of a recession:
View attachment 339944

There is no way we can know with certainty what would have happened. Counterfactual "modeling" data is notoriously wrong. I'm always skeptical of people who say, "This is what would have happened if were hadn't implemented our brilliant plan!". Modelers clearly have a conflict of interest in desiring to "prove" that their actions were beneficial, so any type of counterfactual modeling should be taken with a huge grain of salt.
 
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Merrill

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Ok.

Looks to me like the stimulus kept us out of a recession:
View attachment 339944




I actually don't want to give him much credit for anything on this front. I was merely pointing out the problem with blaming him for things that were somewhat out of his control while not giving him credit for other things that were also somewhat out of his control.

That said, your chart only goes to 2022 (I assume that's FY2022 and not calendar year 2022). Total federal spending dropped a bit in FY2023, as it has every year that Biden's been in office.
The scenario estimate without fiscal support was based on the fact that our government wrongfully shut down our economy, our schools, and introduced a general chaos into our society. Of course this required some fiscal support in the same way I need water to control a fire I started.

And we didn't avoid recession. We were in technical recession by the end of 2021
1701361848053.png

And we are likely headed to a more severe recession in the next couple of quarters (inverted yield curve, leading indicators negative, high interest rates hitting businesses, etc.)

When the mother goes to the supermarket and sees milk is 40% more expensive than it was a couple years ago, she is going to be asking why? Generation Y & Z cannot possibly afford housing, or even rent, and many are living at home.

It is going to take decades to fix these fiscal and structural economic problems, and unless we hold the politicians responsible who caused all this, they will go do it again. And I don't simply mean Democrats--many in the GOP deserve blame as well.
 
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The Barbarian

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Hmmm... checkable link for that?
Tell me you didn't watch the video without telling me you didn't watch the video.
As I pointed out, the video has carefully clipped snippets so that we don't get the complete sentences. For reasons you made clear by not having checkable links. "I know it's true, because I saw it on You Tube" is pretty naive, especially when it's edited that massively.

Don't be so gullible.

At the end of the video there is media coverage of the violent riots that ensued after the 2016 election.
Broken windows. Burning trash can. Blocking traffic. One person injured in an auto accident. No one attacking police. No democrat leaders involved in any of it.

Bottom line? Hillary Clinton conceded the next day and told her followers to accept Trump as president and to give him a chance. Donald Trump, when he lost, lied about the election, insisted that he had won, and told his supporters to go to the Capitol and "fight like hell" to keep Biden from becoming president.

If he had been as honest and as good an American as Hillary, he wouldn't be facing jail time for his attempt to overturn the election.
 
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probinson

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Hmmm... checkable link for that?

As I pointed out, the video has carefully clipped snippets so that we don't get the complete sentences.

What an inane statement. "The election was stolen..." may not be a complete sentence, but I wager that if you read the complete sentence, it doesn't change the meaning of the statement. Care to show how the "carefully clipped snippets" change the abundantly clear meaning of democrats saying the election was stolen?

For reasons you made clear by not having checkable links.

Even when I post links, you ignore them. So I'm not going to waste my time. You're welcome to show how the video was deceptively edited, but I don't think you will, because you know darn right well that democrats did in fact claim the 2016 election was stolen.

"I know it's true, because I saw it on You Tube" is pretty naive, especially when it's edited that massively.

^_^

"I know it's true because I saw a 'checkable link' on the Internet" is pretty naive also. Don't be so gullible.

I mean seriously, what do you think is wrong with the video? You're just saying things to detract from what the video clearly shows. If you think it's deceptive, explain how.

Broken windows. Burning trash can. Blocking traffic. One person injured in an auto accident. No one attacking police. No democrat leaders involved in any of it.

Yes. Riots. So nice to see the democrats accept the election results.

Bottom line? Hillary Clinton conceded the next day and told her followers to accept Trump as president and to give him a chance.

And then went on a media tour that lasted years to talk about how the election was stolen from her. I'm sure that bolstered the public's faith in our electoral system.
 
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Merrill

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And let's not forget that Democrats claimed for years that Bush "stole the election" in 2000. They still make this claim

 
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The Barbarian

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What an inane statement. "The election was stolen..." may not be a complete sentence, but I wager that if you read the complete sentence, it doesn't change the meaning of the statement. Care to show how the "carefully clipped snippets" change the abundantly clear meaning of democrats saying the election was stolen?
If the sentence says what an edited bit of it seems to say, why would they edit it out? You know better than this.

but I wager that if you read the complete sentence, it doesn't change the meaning of the statement
But you never got around to giving us the unaltered sentence. I'm pretty sure why.

"I know it's true, because I saw it on You Tube" is pretty naive, especially when it's edited that massively.

"I know it's true because I saw a 'checkable link' on the Internet" is pretty naive also.
Not if it is checkable. You know this.

So nice to see the democrats accept the election results.
Last night, I congratulated Donald Trump and offered to work with him on behalf of our country. I hope that he will be a successful president for all Americans.
Hillary Clinton

Yep.

Compare to Donald Trump:
The president went on to say that it is a "very tough period of time—there has never been a time like this where such a thing happened, where they could take it away from all of us— from me, from you, from our country."

"This was a fraudulent election, but we can’t play into the hands of these people," Trump said.


Not just a loser. A sore loser. And now, it might cost him his freedom. These two statements pretty much show the difference between the democrats and the republicans today.
 
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