Today I've come to the conclusion that Obama is certain to win this race. Difficult as it is to admit, it is nearly certain, unless something catastrophic happens.
Here's why.
1) The polls have all been showing high upswings for Obama. This morning a new Zogby poll shows Obama leading McCain 51% - 42%. Most polls have shown these tendencies. According to
Real Clear Politics right now even if McCain won all the swing states he'd come up short to Obama. Now the talk for some is not if Obama will win, but how big will he win?
2) The economy. The race was very close until the bank collapses. At this point, swing voters clearly had enough of Republicans in high office, and want the Democrats in. People are afraid and they are voting emotionally.
3) McCain is showing weakness in states that traditionally vote Republican. Most of the swing states, including mine is leaning towards Obama.
4) The enthusiasm gap. Have you noticed how all the talk on the right is about Obama? How much is about McCain? Republicans have become reactionary. Contrast this with when Bush ran both times. Republicans believed in and supported Bush. There is not much enthusiasm for McCain, in fact, much of it is manufactured enthusiasm out of fear of what an Obama presidency will mean. This is what it was like in the'90s when the obsession was with stopping Clinton. The Republicans were the anti-Clinton party. It was all about stopping Clinton, it was not about the Republican candidate, Dole who was a mediocre choice.