"Theoretically, there is no limit to the amount of the shift which can occur over many generations"
theoretically yes, that was Darwin's theory, but farmers had already conducted centuries of practical scientific experiments on this theory even by his day, and observed that you don't need a billion years to discover the limits of a dogs variability.
Furthermore, once the selection pressure is removed, you do not begin from a 'new normal', but observe a recoil back to variation centered around a 'base model' setting.
this is why horseshoe crabs have not changed in 100's of millions of years, it has long been observed that something is constraining biological forms, resisting evolution somehow.
Now we are starting to understand the mechanisms of that observed stasis better - through things like punctuated equilibrium, epigenetics, gene regulatory networks
You may still argue a naturalistic cause for these systems of course- but it can no longer be said that macro evolution is simply an extrapolation of commonly observed genetic variation by the same mechanism over time. It aint