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Where is the US going?

OldWiseGuy

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The Federal Reserve did that between 1998 and 2011 - until the S&P credit rating of the States went from AAA to AA+. There is only so much money that can be printed before the US reaches the point of non-reversible inflation, and then deflation.

Quantitative easing was just another way to issue more long term debt. I suggest printing and spending un-indebted money. It would be a transfusion of equity into a debt ridden economy.
 
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Kaon

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Quantitative easing was just another way to issue more long term debt. I suggest printing and spending un-indebted money. It would be a transfusion of equity into a debt ridden economy.

The US can't because the States have very few profitable legal goods that American will pay money to buy (when there is a Walmart across the highway), and the US has very little credit to continue asking other nations to absorb their debt.

All the States have is an artificially low interest rate, and a consumer base that sustains the beasts for as long as it has. Investors are looking at developing nations, and developed nations that do not include the USA. Globalization has neutralized the American Exceptionalism - which is not necessarily a bad thing.
 
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Yekcidmij

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The US can't because the States have very few profitable legal goods that American will pay money to buy

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Can you explain?

and the US has very little credit to continue asking other nations to absorb their debt.

The majority of federal debt issued is held by the domestic public. It's the American public that "absorbs" most of federal debt.

Bureau of the Fiscal Service - Treasury Bulletin

This is probably a good thing too since it means the US' assets and liabilities are matched in currency and domicile. Take Turkey as an example where their debt is actually financed by foreigners and is issued in foreign currency. These are a couple of risks the US doesn't seem to really have at the moment.

All the States have is an artificially low interest rate,

So what is the natural interest rate and how do you determine it?
 
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OldWiseGuy

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The US can't because the States have very few profitable legal goods that American will pay money to buy (when there is a Walmart across the highway), and the US has very little credit to continue asking other nations to absorb their debt.

All the States have is an artificially low interest rate, and a consumer base that sustains the beasts for as long as it has. Investors are looking at developing nations, and developed nations that do not include the USA. Globalization has neutralized the American Exceptionalism - which is not necessarily a bad thing.

U.S. securities are the largest pool in the world and offer a safe haven for all investors, regardless of current low interest rates. Securities dumped by some foreign countries will be bought by others or wind up in the portfolios of domestic investment and retirement accounts. Hopefully many of these securities will be retired (paid off). $Billions in hard currency are lost or destroyed each year. I propose replacing these funds right off the press by paying certain government contracts in cash, or redeeming certain securities in cash. This returns this lost equity to the economy without issuing yet more debt. And, the circulation of this equity will yield tax revenues that can be used to further reduce federal debt.
 
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joshua 1 9

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China is a no-brainer and will dwarf everyone.
We do not need cheap labor anymore because robotics have improved so much. We do the research and development and we build the machines and now they are training our people to program and run the machines. In the future we may not even need the robots because with nanotechnology things may build themselves. USA is just one of maybe 10 industrial countries. Germany has always been our main competitor. They actually lead the world now in robotics.
 

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Kaon

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U.S. securities are the largest pool in the world and offer a safe haven for all investors, regardless of current low interest rates. Securities dumped by some foreign countries will be bought by others or wind up in the portfolios of domestic investment and retirement accounts. Hopefully many of these securities will be retired (paid off). $Billions in hard currency are lost or destroyed each year. I propose replacing these funds right off the press by paying certain government contracts in cash, or redeeming certain securities in cash. This returns this lost equity to the economy without issuing yet more debt. And, the circulation of this equity will yield tax revenues that can be used to further reduce federal debt.

But what you have described (and describe in general) is a romanticism of Capitalism. In fact, capitalism itself is almost a direct consequence of the Romantic Movement. You must know this cannot, and will not happen - especially now. It is too late to do financial damage control, and containment. That should have been done in 1928, and 1966. It may have been salvageable now if something like this was implemented even in 1980. But now? You would have to let the economy collapse to achieve the necessary return in securities alone. Sometimes collapse is a necessary financial ploy - like sacrificing your Queen. But, like sacrificing your Queen, you need to make sure your foundation is strong. America cannot sacrifice its queen - which is trading its debt. It needs debt now as much as it need a total financial reform; neither will come without a financial depression, or total economic collapse.


We can always band-aid the situation, recycle the same trash economic practices with minor progressive adjustments, and postpone a collapse for another few decades. However, war won't get America out of debt anymore, because many nations now offer technologically advanced weapons, and cyber-warfare have already dwarfed the best the world allegedly has to offer in weaponry beside electroweak weapons. In other words, the USA no longer has an oligarchy on the global weapons scene, and it is no longer apparently neutral in conflicts like it was when it was making money selling weapons.


And, this is completely ignoring the world financial institutions that currently exist now - that would never let America get to the point of #1 Financier again. These organizations do not have to refinance their nations; they have enough backed worth to substantiate their currencies. If America and Americans are prudent, we will accept the coming collapse, and prepare now for the reconstruction. Otherwise, we delay the inevitable.
 
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dgiharris

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In a nutshell, the problem with America as a nation is that we are easily lied to and controlled by those in power.

Couple that to the fact that we are the most ignorant high-tech industrialized nation on the planet by a mile and you have the recipe for our eventual demise...

Point to something big and shiny and we flock to it like lemmings. Point to another group and blame them for all our problems and we are eager to pick up torches and pitch forks and follow you off a cliff...

We are also spoiled brats. Price of gas jumps 5 cents and we want to immediately vote everyone out of office and replace them with someone else....

Last but not least, we are putting politics ahead of math and science. FOrget data, forget scientific analysis, instead, politicize major issues and trust in faith or political dogma instead...

a century from now when they are sifting through the ashes of what was once a powerful nation, they will scratch their heads wondering how any group of people could be so ignorant in the information age....
 
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