Where is the US going?

[Zoii]

My friend's new wife is Chinese, so I'll probably hear from him over the years. I do have my doubts about sustaining an effort over a hundred years. Mao's government had to abort several ambitious plans because they were not working. And of course, their economic priorities will be first, and they are looking to grow that economy. A big part of that will be increasing fossil fuel usage.

It's impressive though what they are seeking to do. Fingers crossed that they achieve their ambitions

 

[joshua 1 9]

In the OECD countries within Maths, Literacy and Science its ranked #15 behind Iceland.

I am not talking about how well Americans are educated. Clearly they do not take advantage of the opportunities they have. My son did and they were paying $30,000 a year for him when he was in High School. So they take the money away from the people that do not want an education and give it to the people that do want an education. He was taking classes from three different universities when he was still in High School. I am not sure what good it did him because they only let them take the easy classes. Not the difficult classes you need to get a good paying job. Right now it looks like he is going to get a degree in computer engineering with a minor in math. Which should should give him a lot of flexibility in the companies he can work for. The amazing thing is my property taxes are less then $2,000 a year. Yet my son got just as good of an education as the cities were they pay 8 or $9,000 a year in taxes.

What I was talking about was College Education and that is BIG business here in America. In fact China does not even have graduate school. If you want to get a Phd in China you have to go to United States or another country to get a good education. Also Universities like Harvard out rank all the other universities in the world. All the Ivy League Universities do very well. They attract a lot of students from overseas that pay a lot of money for an education. Out of the top 20 universities in the world 15 of them are here in this country. In the top 10 universities half of them are here in America.

Just about anywhere you want to go in the world you are going to have to at least be able to read English to get a good education. The only exception maybe Germany. My wife worked in Hong Kong for 9 years teaching English. You have to speak a second language in Hong Kong to get a good job and it makes the most sense to speak English.

In addition to our Education people all over the world want USA products because we maybe expensive but we are considered to be a very high quality. Esp people are tired of China junk and usually consider it to be worthless.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Its military strength is unparalleled in human history

Our military strength is very scary. We have a whole generation of gamers that love to play war games on the computer. They can do amazing things with drones. China made a big deal about capturing two of our drone subs and Trump just told China to keep them. They were not worth the trouble to negotiate their return. When Obama took out Gaddafi's palace and government in Libya they used coordinates that they received from freedom fighters living in the country and using the internet. So we can wage war with just about anyone anywhere in the world and not even have to risk American lives. This is where Trump really excels because he is very good at going in and taking the money away from the adversary and putting them out of business so they can not hire their mercenary soldiers to fight any battles. With Trump we do not need so many boots on the ground that we had with past presidents. This is good because now our troops can be doing what they should be doing which is disaster relief and rescue work. Although they are trained and ready to fight anytime. If anyone is curious to know what Americans are made out of. We have small groups of elite solders that love that sort of thing.

 

[Mountainmanbob]

it has thrown out long-standing trade alliances

It has now formed closer alliances with Russia.



It's attacking Asia and Europe with trade tariffs and has recently asserted its position along with Russia (and Sudan and Israel) as the only countries not to recognise the International Criminal Court...... today, in fact, it strongly denounced the capacity to bring to justice international crime.

Countries such as my own are recognising the shift in the American view towards its allies and its global role. Australia, for the first time, now instead operates international military operations with China. Australia has recognised China as a more stable trading partner with a responsible program around Carbon emissions, and less erratic foreign policy.

While Americans domestically may understand where they are heading, outside of America we are becoming increasingly bereft of what the USA is as an international entity. The appearance to those outside of USA is a country wanting to retreat within isolationist, nationalist programs at the expense of international accords.

But whats the view from within America?

Just not true as our trade partners know exactly what's going on, that we want a fair deal now and many are already coming in line such as the EU, Mexico and Canada will be soon.

Russian knows they're not our friend, we know they're not our friend and Trump has put heavy, heavy sanctions on them.

M-Bob

 

[Zoii]

I am not talking about how well Americans are educated. Clearly they do not take advantage of the opportunities they have. My son did and they were paying $30,000 a year for him when he was in High School. So they take the money away from the people that do not want an education and give it to the people that do want an education. He was taking classes from three different universities when he was still in High School. I am not sure what good it did him because they only let them take the easy classes. Not the difficult classes you need to get a good paying job. Right now it looks like he is going to get a degree in computer engineering with a minor in math. Which should should give him a lot of flexibility in the companies he can work for. The amazing thing is my property taxes are less then $2,000 a year. Yet my son got just as good of an education as the cities were they pay 8 or $9,000 a year in taxes.

What I was talking about was College Education and that is BIG business here in America. In fact China does not even have graduate school. If you want to get a Phd in China you have to go to United States or another country to get a good education. Also Universities like Harvard out rank all the other universities in the world. All the Ivy League Universities do very well. They attract a lot of students from overseas that pay a lot of money for an education. Out of the top 20 universities in the world 15 of them are here in this country. In the top 10 universities half of them are here in America.

Just about anywhere you want to go in the world you are going to have to at least be able to read English to get a good education. The only exception maybe Germany. My wife worked in Hong Kong for 9 years teaching English. You have to speak a second language in Hong Kong to get a good job and it makes the most sense to speak English.

In addition to our Education, people all over the world want USA products because of we maybe expensive but we are considered to be a very high quality. Esp people are tired of China junk and usually, consider it to be worthless.

Oh I see, you're saying the USA has reputable universities. Yes I'm sure most would agree... though I can't see how its connected to the OP - Still - I agree

Also the USA has a history of innovation...hands up all countries that have landed on the moon... Yes USSR you came close, and you score points for the first man and woman in space - still...no cigar

And then there's computer tech...... but everyone has caught up/catching up - so now the USA has to say - what next.

 

[Zoii]

Just not true as our trade partners know exactly what's going on, that we want a fair deal now and many are already coming in line such as the EU, Mexico and Canada will be soon.

Russian knows they're not our friend, we know they're not our friend and Trump has put heavy, heavy sanctions on them.

M-Bob

Hi Bob - new profile picture i see
Well, I hope that's right Bob. I'm just expressing what those outside the USA think...well at least my circle of friends and family and what I hear on the news. Surely though you must be worried about the outcome for the average guy during a trade war. A policy that applies tariffs to all your trading partners means that all your trading partners apply tariffs back on US products. Doesn't that concern people there?

 

[Mountainmanbob]

Hi Zoii
Yes these trade Wars or if we may call them negotiations do make one a little uneasy. But, it is time to level the playing field for even these other countries know they've been getting the best part of the pie for quite some time.

Mexico talked a lot of hatred smack towards us a while back and then they were begging for a new deal.

China not only with their unfair tariffs and tactics have been stealing our technology (has to be stopped).

This consumer up top the mountain realizes that we will probably be paying a little more for products due to these issues and renegotiations but, in the long run the benefits should outweigh the losses.

M-Bob

 

[Halbhh]

Well you've highlighted a very fine example. You may remember the lead up to the Beijing Olympics and the government had to forbid traffic movement in order to gain some air clarity. Air pollution was very high. What has followed is truly incredible. Unlike your nation and mine, which struggles to put into effect a strategic plan that goes beyond a decade, their's is a one hundred year strategic plan. You really have to admire and applaud that they can do that - I guess that's the upside of having a communist government - you decide what needs to be done for the country and that's that - it's pursued unabated.

Anyway as part of that strategic plan is management of carbon emissions. By far, their program to have a negative carbon footprint makes the rest of us seem pathetic. It would be fascinating to hear your friends' opinion next decade should they return. Lets hope their program is successful - they will be a model for us all.

Little after 50 or 100 years happens as expected in a projection.
A 100-yr plan is thus a kind of idealization, or a billboard.

Have a look at an actual in-progress plan from China (from 2017):

"In a policy document, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will peak by 2030 and total energy demand will be capped at 6 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by 2030, up from 4.4 billion tons targeted for this year."

China 2020 and 2030 energy plans

Of course, the time when carbon reduction (not increase) can help is right now. Not peaking in 2030. Increasing out to 2030 is just...well, increasing CO2 from already troubling levels, for years and years and years.

The U.S. also can do much better (and Trump is pushing the opposite direction of what's needed). But, we are at least *reducing carbon emissions already, and continuing*.

Ouch. For all of us. Really, expect the worst for the climate over the coming decades.

 

[Kaon]

The major long term issues for the American economy are debt levels and the inefficiency of health care spending and provision. The political process seems unable to find a way to balance its books and come to some kind of sensible approach to health care (it costs twice as much in the USA as in comparable developed countries). This is one reason I was not massively upset with Trump being elected despite his obvious character flaws and apparent unfitness to govern. Sometimes in a broken system you need a fool to get stuff done being the logic here. Whether that has worked out is an open question however.

But the American empire is a long way from collapse. Its military strength is unparalleled in human history and unequalled by any other power or potential combination of powers. With its various alliances with Europe and Japan it carries an economic weight that dominates the world and its culture of freedom is still widely recognised. There is still a substantial spiritual weight to the Christian population of the USA even if its influence faded a little in the Obama years. Also Americans have demonstrated a remarkable capacity to surprise us with new visions. IN the last 20 years the explosion of various new kinds of IT initiative and company has been dominated by America for instance. I would not write them off yet. In the next 20 years it looks likely that it will be American owned companies that will dominate in new industries like robotics, genetics, computing and space flight.

Short of a major war I do not see America losing its leadership position in the next generation even despite its economic weakness.

You don't want to see it, but collapse is inevitable.

Or war on such a scale it has no choice but to spill over at home.

Those are the historic ways a nation has death with unbelievable debt, division and pedestrian chaos (e.g. joblessness and civil injustices). America is built on credit, and profits from selling war technology. Both of those are collapsing under globalization.

It is inevitable, and imminent. It has already been happening for the past 3 decades in full force.

 

[joshua 1 9]

Oh I see, you're saying the USA has reputable universities. Yes I'm sure most would agree... though I can't see how its connected to the OP - Still - I agree

Also the USA has a history of innovation...hands up all countries that have landed on the moon... Yes USSR you came close, and you score points for the first man and woman in space - still...no cigar

And then there's computer tech...... but everyone has caught up/catching up - so now the USA has to say - what next.

What is next? The issue right now has to do with law and a liberal supreme court vs a conservative court. The country seems to be fairly evenly divided when you balance them in a scale and put liberals on one side and conservatives on the other. Liberals tend to lean toward socialism. The pendulum tends to swing right now toward a conservative government and other countries seem to be following our lead. There are four options here: conservative, liberal-conservative,conservative-liberal, and classical liberal. Which really means how are the events in America going to effect Australia. Well they lean toward liberal-conservative or conservative-liberal. However you want to define that.

 

[joshua 1 9]

It is inevitable, and imminent. It has already been happening for the past 3 decades in full force.

Clinton paid off the debt and we had a strong economy. No thanks to Hillary but Bill actually did a pretty good job in that regard. Bush then ran up 6 trillion in debt, and Obama ran up 12 trillion. Trump is starting to slow that down but he has not reversed it yet to start to pay the debt off.

 

[Yekcidmij]

Clinton paid off the debt

Nope.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=liup

 

[joshua 1 9]

Nope.

That is a 6 billion dollar debt. That is chump change. By the end of Bush's administration the debt was 6 trillion.

 

[Yekcidmij]

Many economists make a strong connection between the trade deficit and the national debt, and I agree with them.

I made this one just for you:

FRED Graph | FRED | St. Louis Fed

The flip side of federal deficit is private sector surplus. The flip side of a trade deficit is a capital surplus.

You can pretty easily see that federal borrowing/lending is inversely related to the domestic private sector.

When people indicate that they want to eliminate the federal deficit and/or trade deficit (which aren't necessarily related), it tells me they must want to eliminate the private sector surplus and/or capital surplus. And why?...I think it's because "deficit" sounds bad in their heads. But to ask the other side of the question: why do you want to private sector do be in deficit? Why do you want the capital account to be in deficit?

 

[Kaon]

Clinton paid off the debt and we had a strong economy. No thanks to Hillary but Bill actually did a pretty good job in that regard. Bush then ran up 6 trillion in debt, and Obama ran up 12 trillion. Trump is starting to slow that down but he has not reversed it yet to start to pay the debt off.

You have to spend money to make money in capitalism, so it is understandable how the debt has risen - especially given the amount of war America has been in in the 21st century. American weapons are not as in demand as they were in the 20th century; it is amazing how a budget can be balanced when there is no war (i.e. the 90s). But, Clinton's economy was still a facade; the economy seemed strong because America was post-war, and the recession was an actual recession - mild. The currency was relatively founded, and globalization did not threaten the psychology of the job market like it does today. It would be a failure of any president if s/he couldn't pay off a post-war debt with a strong credit backing and demand for goods.

It wouldn't matter who was president today; America is destined to collapse economically, and then socially - or vice versa - and then ultimately. This happens to every empire; the key to America's strength will be whether or not it is recognizable after collapse.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

I made this one just for you:

FRED Graph | FRED | St. Louis Fed

The flip side of federal deficit is private sector surplus. The flip side of a trade deficit is a capital surplus.

You can pretty easily see that federal borrowing/lending is inversely related to the domestic private sector.

When people indicate that they want to eliminate the federal deficit and/or trade deficit (which aren't necessarily related), it tells me they must want to eliminate the private sector surplus and/or capital surplus. And why?...I think it's because "deficit" sounds bad in their heads. But to ask the other side of the question: why do you want to private sector do be in deficit? Why do you want the capital account to be in deficit?

You seem to be saying that debt cannot be repaid, only transferred from one party to another. Sadly there may be some truth to this.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

You have to spend money to make money in capitalism, so it is understandable how the debt has risen - especially given the amount of war America has been in in the 21st century. American weapons are not as in demand as they were in the 20th century; it is amazing how a budget can be balanced when there is no war (i.e. the 90s). But, Clinton's economy was still a facade; the economy seemed strong because America was post-war, and the recession was an actual recession - mild. The currency was relatively founded, and globalization did not threaten the psychology of the job market like it does today. It would be a failure of any president if s/he couldn't pay off a post-war debt with a strong credit backing and demand for goods.

It wouldn't matter who was president today; America is destined to collapse economically, and then socially - or vice versa - and then ultimately. This happens to every empire; the key to America's strength will be whether or not it is recognizable after collapse.

I believe we can greatly reduce debt by,

Printing money and paying off our creditors with it (over time of course).

Passing a balanced budget amendment.

Tightening credit requirements in the private sector.

 

[Kaon]

I believe we can greatly reduce debt by,

Printing money and paying off our creditors with it (over time of course).

Passing a balanced budget amendment.

Tightening credit requirements in the private sector.

Really? I thought you were a bit more cynical of government function in general.

The Federal Reserve did that between 1998 and 2011 - until the S&P credit rating of the States went from AAA to AA+. There is only so much money that can be printed before the US reaches the point of non-reversible inflation, and then deflation. Right now, we are experiencing inflation, and after collapse things will begin to deflate - but by then few Americans would be able to afford the goods because the currency will be worthless. However, other nations will be able to come to the States, and buy goods for cheap just like Westerners do in alleged third world countries.

Some of the nations considered developed are now building infrastructure, and joining international financial organizations (some of which are backed by precious metals up to an amount in the trillions of dollars). Nations that used to be empires are putting money back into their citizens, and country. America is still sort of in the dark about what is about to happen, but a lot of Asian, African and European nations have seen this before. Or, they have heard about this coming up from their family.



If we make peace with the imminent collapse now, then Americans can reduce the economic, social, infrastructural, cultural and mortal damage to the nation. But, that would require some sort of unity - a shared culture of respect, dignity and common good will.

 

[Zoii]

What is next? The issue right now has to do with law and a liberal supreme court vs a conservative court. The country seems to be fairly evenly divided when you balance them in a scale and put liberals on one side and conservatives on the other. Liberals tend to lean toward socialism. The pendulum tends to swing right now toward a conservative government and other countries seem to be following our lead. There are four options here: conservative, liberal-conservative,conservative-liberal, and classical liberal. Which really means how are the events in America going to effect Australia. Well they lean toward liberal-conservative or conservative-liberal. However you want to define that.

Well the US/Aust relationship is currently somewhat confusing for Australia. Initially the USA threatened Australia with heavy tariffs; until someone pointed out to the US administration that it has a positive trade balance with Australia and an Australian retaliation would hurt the USA more than it would Australia. Status Quo: no tariffs on Australian goods.

Security is where the strongest alliance is - though Australia is developing a security partnership with China. Whilst Australians in my grandfathers generation identified with British heritage and American alliance, the truth is we are Asian and our alliances therefore are Asia Pacific Alliances in security and trade. The USA has a part in that alliance but geopoltically that's shifting towards Asian partners. Our 50 year geopolitical security plan identifies nations emerging as super powers. China is a no-brainer and will dwarf everyone. But Australia also identifies the massively growing middle classes of India and Indonesia; and ear-marks those countries as having the potential to be the dominant powers within Asia. There populations are massive and their industries surpass most countries.

The challenge for my country is where do we fit into a triangle of super powers ie China/Indonesia/India and how do we ensure we have a strong relationship with them in trade and security.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

I believe we can greatly reduce debt by,

Printing money and paying off our creditors with it (over time of course).

Outstanding idea! The German Weimar Republic tried that and it set the way for future economic recovery under a new leader.