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What might get Trump re-elected?

Discussion in 'American Politics' started by Tom 1, Jul 17, 2020.

  1. Tom 1

    Tom 1 Optimistic sceptic Supporter

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    To start on a positive note, after first sifting out the spin, propaganda and outright invention, what has Trump achieved?

    - an economy that had been growing steadily but slowly for around 12 years went into overdrive.
    - the revised NAFTA deal seems to be better than the old one in some significant ways.
    - someone needed to be confrontational with China, and Trump did this, although this has yet to conclude successfully it was time someone did confront China over intellectual property theft (etc) and Trump, albeit in fairly chaotic fashion, has done that.

    Is there anything else?

    On the other hand, his rule has seen the US govt descend into unparalleled levels of corruption, farce and comedy/frightening (depending on how directly you are affected I suppose) displays of outright bizarre, bigoted, dumb and downright nasty behaviour. That and the Kushner & co amateur hour seems to have made re-election unlikely, but I have the sneaking feeling that may be at least partially the result of wishful thinking. I don’t think it’s impossible that some unexpected event or series of events could lead to another Trump victory. What wild cards might there still be that could throw the election in his favour?
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
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  2. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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    Mass voter suppression. Already in Florida we are seeing the supreme court support denying released felons the vote due to unpaid fines(which are so high they will never be repaid) and off course gerrymandering.
     
  3. Jonathan Walkerin

    Jonathan Walkerin Well-Known Member

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    Growing economy he inherited from Obama that has now crashed. As it always does since capitalistic system goes in cycles.

    Revised NAFTA deal how is it better in "significant ways " ?

    Confront China. Fine with that. Chaotic sure.
     
  4. Tom 1

    Tom 1 Optimistic sceptic Supporter

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    I think the measures to improve conditions for Mexican auto workers and reduce the deficit between the cost of imported and home produced goods are important additions.
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
  5. Arc F1

    Arc F1 Let the righteous man arise from slumber Supporter

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    Nobody is suppressing any votes. We'll unless you count the 100k that California threw out or the 1 in 5 NY did away with. This mail in election is going to be a disaster.
     
  6. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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    Voter suppression is an observed fact.
    Voter suppression in the United States - Wikipedia
     
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  7. WolfGate

    WolfGate Senior Member

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    4 months is a long time. Think back 4 months - coronavirus had just started. Trump was presenting as a wartime President, putting experts out front, and his approval rating on that front were climbing. It looked like he was in pretty good position. Somewhere, somebody decided a different strategy was needed and that all he needed to win was to get the economy rolling again. That was a short term strategic mistake for sure. A lot changed in 4 months.

    It is entirely possible in the next 4 months that enough people will decide the path they prefer is to get back to a daily life that is as much like pre-covid as possible regardless of the health cost. High unemployment for 4 more months with Trump being the open the economy champion could do it. Particularly if his campaign switches tactics to acknowledging the virus damage but saying we are close enough to effective treatments and vaccines that we can afford to jump start the economy. What has really killed him with the middle has been the obvious attempts to push out of public view the very non-partisan experts the public trusted from the start.

    So I do think he can win even without a dramatic new event. I think he has to change in a way I doubt he ever would.
     
  8. Arc F1

    Arc F1 Let the righteous man arise from slumber Supporter

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    Who wants felons to shape our elections? I don't. Why would anyone want a person who has shown such bad judgment to be able to help pick our leaders? They knew going in that they would have their vote taken away and they didn't care. It wasn't important to them.
     
  9. Goonie

    Goonie Not so Mystic Mog. Supporter

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    When many were in their teens and dumb. But ongoing punishing people who have served their time?

    How very Christian of you.

    This is just one example of voter suppression.
     
  10. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    The economy hasn't actually "crashed." What's most likely to get Trump reelected is him doing something about the lawlessness in cities governed by Democrats who are unwilling to act against the terrorists. Up to now, it's mainly been talk on his part.
     
  11. nonaeroterraqueous

    nonaeroterraqueous Nonexistent Member

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    I have a feeling the press will find a way to use it against him, either way.
     
  12. Tom 1

    Tom 1 Optimistic sceptic Supporter

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    What kind of percentage split is there between large urban areas that are GOP or Democrat dominated? I read somewhere that most metropolitan areas are Democrat, with Republicans being more popular in smaller towns and rural areas.
     
  13. Speedwell

    Speedwell Well-Known Member

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    Aren't you looking forward to it? Allegations of voter fraud would give Trump an excuse for repudiating the election in case he loses.
     
  14. Tom 1

    Tom 1 Optimistic sceptic Supporter

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    I'm starting to think he might be content to spend his time promoting conspiracy theories on twitter if he loses rather than trying to hang on to power. He's had some big boy problems to deal with this year and I don't think he likes to have his lack of competence exposed like that.
     
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  15. Paulos23

    Paulos23 Never tell me the odds!

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    I can't say for people in general in the US, but I know what it would take for me to vote for him.

    Dealing with the pandemic by following all the advice of the federal scientists and stop undercutting them.

    Stop purging the government with his loyalty test.

    Get the Congress to extend the financial aid for the country.

    And that is just for starters.
     
  16. Brightmoon

    Brightmoon Apes and humans are all in family Hominidae.

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    In New York State ex cons can vote if they’re off parole . Which I always thought was reasonable
     
  17. Brightmoon

    Brightmoon Apes and humans are all in family Hominidae.

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    For me to vote for Trump he’d literally have to be reincarnated. I don’t respect nor do I want in any authority over me or mine , someone who’s racist and/or sexist. I’m not that fond of crass and boorish behavior either
     
  18. Fantine

    Fantine Dona Quixote Supporter

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    Given that Trump is a criminal with an accomplice General and other accomplices I have no doubt he will try every ruse he can to throw the election his way.

    we should have listened to him in 2016 when he said the election would be rigged. He knew it would be rigged because he was part of the rigging. He never said it would be rigged his favor. That was the disastrous surprised we all experienced
     
  19. Albion

    Albion Facilitator

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    Oh, absolutely. And that may be why he is doing more threatening than acting.

    The claim that he's a wannabe dictator and overstepping his authority has already been tried out in anticipation that he might actually do what the federal government did back during the civil rights/desegregation era (which was met with widespread acceptance).
     
  20. jayem

    jayem Naturalist

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    As of now, the election is out of his hands. He has zero chance of flipping any of the blue states Hillary won. And polls are consistent that he’s significantly underwater in at least 4 crucial swing states. On his own, he has no pathway to 270 EVs. What could reverse this is if Joe Biden flubs big time. Which is not impossible.

    This election isn’t Trump’s to win. It’s Biden’s to lose.
     
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