What caused the drop in voter turnout?

[Postvieww]

If Biden really got 81.3 million votes in 2020 where were they this time? Did they not want to stop Hitler and the end to democracy?

 

[Chesterton]

What do you think caused such a sharp drop in the numbers of people voting for the democratic presidential ticket?

Why would you bother turning out to vote for a candidate you never voted to be a candidate?

Plus the moronic cackling.

 

[comana]

Personally I think it's at least partially because people have forgotten the chaos of Trump's first term.

Good thing they're about to get a 4 year refresher course.

This and frustration that no administration can affect the economy in any real way. Voters just ping pong between parties hoping that something will be different this time.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

One of my theories, and I elaborated on it in another thread...

I think the dozen or so states that had citizen-led ballot initiatives and state-level legislation to codify abortion rights (many of which succeeded in purple swing states) yanked the rug out from underneath the DNC on one of their major selling points.

It went from a mentality/aura of "voting against Donald Trump is the only way to make sure abortion access is protected" to somewhat taking that issue off the table, to a degree, for the people who live in purple states where that would've been a selling point.

So if someone was a moderate in a place like Ohio, PA, Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona, or Michigan, wanted abortion access protected, but was maybe a little more right-leaning on some other issues, that sense of urgency "I've gotta vote for the Democratic presidential ticket to protect these rights, I can worry about that other stuff later" that may have existed in 2020, no longer existed in 2024.

The deep blue states that go for the Democrats every time already had laws on the books to protect it, most of the purple states that didn't have laws protecting it previously, passed them quickly via ballot measure or state legislation in 2022-2023. (even some red states did for that matter)

And the red states that don't have laws on the books protecting it, are so deep red that they weren't going to swing over to the Harris side even if that was a key issue for them.


In effect, those states "handling it themselves" basically took what was supposed to be "THE winning issue" for Harris that would get women out to the polls to vote for her in record numbers, and basically took it off the table (or at the very least, made it less critical)

My theory is that if those purple swing states hadn't passed their own abortion protection laws over the past two years, and abortion access was still in "limbo" there, the swing states would've gone blue and that would've been a winning issue for Harris.

 

[RDKirk]

Why would you bother turning out to vote for a candidate you never voted to be a candidate?

That was frustrating, considering that Harris had been at the bottom of the stack during the primary race. As I've said in these forums before, Biden was the last on my list because of his age, but Harris was only slightly above that. Biden's choice of Harris as VP was pure pandering...and now I realize he was pandering to the intersection of Critical Race Theory and Radical Feminism, both based on Marx-derived Critical Theory.

 

[Belk]

Why? The whole world enacted ineffective, draconian COVID measures that resulted in worldwide inflation. TONS of money was artificially pumped into the economy. Jobs were lost. The supply chain was decimated. This all happened as a result of the overreaching response to COVID.

Because it was world wide. If it is world wide then it is hard to credit that a local piece of legislation caused the issue. Most especially since we recovered before anyone else did. Can you explain this apparent discrepancy?

 

[RDKirk]

The DNC failed in speaking to the fears of women about reproductive rights. Someone has said this--I've read it somewhere this morning--that a great preponderance of white women really weren't as concerned about their "reproductive rights" as the DNC thought.

First, Trump had already said that he'd gotten the matter turned over to the states and planned to do nothing more about it. Most white women were either in blue states that had already moved to protect abortion (and those white women were mostly happy with that) or they were in red states that had already moved to restrict abortion (and those white women were mostly happy with that). So, for the white women in either red or blue states, "reproductive rights" had been taken off the table as their primary election concerns. Most white women do, however, have a vested interest in the status quo not changing very much regardless of the noise being made by DNC liberals.

 

[Always in His Presence]

What do you think caused such a sharp drop in the numbers of people voting for the democratic presidential ticket?
(I'm sure this is the exact question that DNC members are asking themselves right now)

Perhaps because the Democratic leadership chose to oust their candidate at the last minute and appoint one of the most disregarded, lowest rated Vice Presidents in history?

 

[Palmfever]

2004 John Kerry: 59M
2008 Obama: 69.5M
2012 Obama: 65.9M
2016 Clinton: 65.8M
2020 Biden: 81.3M
2024 Harris: 67.2M
(Source: Wikipedia)

Noting: Trump's numbers stayed the same between the last two elections...in the neighborhood of 72-73 million.

Obviously Trump picked up some voters in demographics that weren't expected, and the overall voter turnout percentages aren't in yet for this most recent one.

But if you take the officially reported numbers at face value, that would mean that a lot of Biden voters from 2020 declined to vote for a president this time (to the tune of over 10 million of them).

To be clear, I'm not wanting this to turn into a conspiracy theory thread about the 2020 election or theories about "secret powers inflating the Biden numbers"...I don't want this thread to get moved to the conspiracy theory section where nobody will see it.

And in the interest of disclosure, I'm one of that 10 million that declined to vote for a president this time around, so we do exist.

What do you think caused such a sharp drop in the numbers of people voting for the democratic presidential ticket?
(I'm sure this is the exact question that DNC members are asking themselves right now)

“Every single year, people say, ‘This is the most important election ever,’ right? Well, they actually polled this: the most important election of my lifetime. Back in 2020, look at the 74 percent of registered voters said that—yes—it was the most important election of their lifetime. This time around, it’s actually less. It’s 65 percent,” Enten said. Harris vs. Trump: Here’s why voter turnout could drop in 2024

But the last two decades have suggested that things may be changing. “Since 2004, we’ve been at the higher range of turnout over the past century of our politics,” McDonald says. Political scientists and historians note the 2000 election exacerbated political polarization, and political parties and advocacy groups have improved at mobilizing voters on the grassroots level.

And perhaps it’s not surprising, given the polarization and high passions of 2020, that the trend has continued.

“A lot of people got disengaged after a series of assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bobby Kennedy and the Nixon election, during that period, even though the laws helped bring people into the political system, the decline of these social organizations and collective movement had a negative impact,” says Paul Gronke, a professor of Political Science at Reed College and founder and director of the Early Voting Information Center. “The 1960s were an optimistic period, and the 1970s period was not. That’s what really drives people to the ballot box: they cared.”

The History Behind 2020's Record Voter Turnout Numbers

A record number of Americans are projected to have voted in the 2020 election. But why is low turnout considered normal?

time.com

Difficulty voting doesn't appear to be a major reason why they don't vote. Three-quarters said they think it's at least somewhat easy to vote.

It's more that these voters feel a sense of alienation and apathy. They are generally detached from the news and pessimistic about politics, the survey found.

Politics is simply not the way to make change, they said. Two-thirds of nonvoters agree, for example, that voting has little to do with the way that real decisions are made in this country; they are 21 points more likely to say so than people who voted. https://www.npr.org/2020/12/15/9450...out-80-million-americans-didnt-vote-heres-why

 

[Zaha Torte]

Personally I think it's at least partially because people have forgotten the chaos of Trump's first term.

Good thing they're about to get a 4 year refresher course.

What chaos?

 

[Nithavela]

What chaos?

Forgotten it too, hmm?

 

[comana]

Forgotten it too, hmm?

It‘s selective memory filtered with rose colored lenses.

 

[Always in His Presence]

What chaos?

The violent riots on his inauguration day -
The nightly attacks on Federal Buildings, including improvised explosive devices
The people who were killed during the summer of love.
The destruction of minority owned buildings and businesses
ANTIFA - and their violent protests
The 'fiery" but mostly peaceful protest that burnt down sections of a city
Black Lives Matter protest that turned violent often.

That Chaos - all in protest of the President.

 

[QvQ]

Personally I think it's at least partially because people have forgotten the chaos of Trump's first term.

Good thing they're about to get a 4 year refresher course.

There was 4 years of endless, pointless and finally, discredited investigations, hearings and impeachments.
Anything to "get Trump"
We can only hope the Democrats don't plan another refresher course on that chaos.

 

[Fyrewulf]

They couldn't fly in fake ballots at 4am after everyone went to bed this time.

 

[rjs330]

I don't think it's that difficult. Going back to 2008 you had 65 -69 million voters for the democrats. I mean Harris got more than Obama did in 2012. And she out performed Clinton. 2020 is a giant anomaly and with one that large you have to acknowledge that something very suspicious was happening.

So historically there wasn't any real drop in turnout.

 

[Zaha Torte]

Forgotten it too, hmm?

I have yet to hear your answer.

 

[Zaha Torte]

It‘s selective memory filtered with rose colored lenses.

It is an answer not given.

 

[Zaha Torte]

The violent riots on his inauguration day -
The nightly attacks on Federal Buildings, including improvised explosive devices
The people who were killed during the summer of love.
The destruction of minority owned buildings and businesses
ANTIFA - and their violent protests
The 'fiery" but mostly peaceful protest that burnt down sections of a city
Black Lives Matter protest that turned violent often.

That Chaos - all in protest of the President.

None of which caused by Trump.

 

[Nithavela]

There was 4 years of endless, pointless and finally, discredited investigations, hearings and impeachments.
Anything to "get Trump"
We can only hope the Democrats don't plan another refresher course on that chaos.

It's pretty pointless anyway, since Trump can't have a third term. Although is on record for stating that he desires one.