Uncharted Territory, rapid warming greatly exceeds models' forecasts

rambot

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It could be that the Earth has been warming for the last 10,000 years and continues on the same course.
But not really.
The previous "trend" was closer to 10,000/Degree, kinda speed. REAAAAALLY slow.

Now we're doing a degree per 150 years or so. That is not the "same course".
 
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Halbhh

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Is it fair to say this is due to sloppy scientific work?

Is it fair to say this is due to science being myopic?

Well, from reading dozens of articles/reports over decades, we know that climate is very complex, and therefore models cannot be perfect....

So, it's not "sloppy" when a model doesn't predict a big change, but instead is the natural limitation on trying to model something so complex -- we can't always get it right perfectly every time (to within a close outcome near what we predict) -- but only often, at best.

Myopic though -- what would be the most myopic of all would be ignoring or discounting the powerful effects of man made CO2 emissions -- which are such a large and powerful primary factor.

Someone trying to suggest their climate model is better without CO2 as one of the predominate primary factors would be 'myopic'....

A good process is to make models with all the most powerful factors -- gradually improving the models over time. It's like designing a car engine -- gradually an engine can be made more and more reliable over decades of design and real life testing.

A model is like that: it's imperfect but can be improved over time with refinements.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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I never understood how carbon dioxide representing a mere 0.04% of total atmospheric gases and having the lowest warming potential index of 1 could be responsible for warming. To me CO2 cannot be the main cause of warming at best a minor contributor.

I read recently that the measurement used in showing warming are situated on top ( flat tar roofs) of building within cities, the bulk of the measurements are are from these temperature recording devices... go figure why....

I noticed also that the trillions of dollars generated from carbon taxes go somewhere but where and in what proportions?...who pockets this money?

most of the carbon emissions are from China, Pakistan, India, yet they continue and no one intervenes.

CO2 has become a cult and is not based on science, now people think CO2 is toxic. Yet the minimum concentration of atmospheric CO2 for vegetation to grow is only half of the current value or about 200 PPM, we are close to that minimum.

since CO2 has increased in the atmosphere also vegetation coverage has increased in proportion, if you visit the greenhouse of some botanical gardens, they inject extra CO2 for a total of 1200 ppm or 3 x the current atmospheric values to promote vegetation growth.... no need to explain that without vegetation we would all die quickly.

All these facts I have researched and verified many years ago, I encourage people to do the same.
 
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Hans Blaster

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The physics of the surface warming caused by CO2 is fairly simple and well established. 400 ppm CO2 is quite sufficient.
I read recently that the measurement used in showing warming are situated on top ( flat tar roofs) of building within cities, the bulk of the measurements are are from these temperature recording devices... go figure why....
Urban heat islands are a thing, but the overall surface temperature increase is not limited to urban places with dark roofs.
I noticed also that the trillions of dollars generated from carbon taxes go somewhere but where and in what proportions?...who pockets this money?
What carbon taxes? Who has a carbon tax? The US doesn't have one.
most of the carbon emissions are from China, Pakistan, India, yet they continue and no one intervenes.
This is not true.
CO2 has become a cult and is not based on science, now people think CO2 is toxic. Yet the minimum concentration of atmospheric CO2 for vegetation to grow is only half of the current value or about 200 PPM, we are close to that minimum.
If you don't think CO2 is toxic (a separate question from the greenhouse gas property) then inhale high concentrations of it. Or rather don't. It will first knock you out and then you will suffocate. The atmospheric levels aren't anywhere near that point.
We don't have a deficit of CO2 problem for plant growth. Crops grew fine before the current increase in CO2.
All these facts I have researched and verified many years ago, I encourage people to do the same.
Your research has failed and found incorrect information. Most of these "facts" have been wrong for decades.
 
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Halbhh

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I never understood how carbon dioxide representing a mere 0.04% of total atmospheric gases and having the lowest warming potential index of 1 could be responsible for warming. To me CO2 cannot be the main cause of warming at best a minor contributor.
For determining how much a particular greenhouse gas contributes to heat retention, that's only about working out all the math of the physics side of it -- where of course you must use the relative abundance of various greenhouse gasses, such as the far more powerful greenhouse gas Methane -- and then including equations representing that factor into the model. Even if you do that well, of course that doesn't guarantee the model has every major factor -- it might not yet. Correct greenhouse gas factors are only one part of a good model.

And researchers continue working over time to better understand also and incorporate other factors, over time, gradually improving models.

And could still miss a major factor.

Also, you appear you might be wondering (as it seemed to my in my impression from the rest of your post) that researchers aren't aware (or taking into account?) how more CO2 would then be used by plants?

No, the opposite -- we know that CO2 is used/taken up by plants, like phytoplankton for example, in vast quantities -- and that very thing is also incorporated into good modeling such as by a factor of absorption (what % of new CO2 is absorbed out of the atmosphere)....

And also studied in research -- how that can change over time, etc.

For example: Phytoplankton Dynamics Under Climate Change
 
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rambot

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Ok. But understand that is a "you" problem and not a fundamental problem with CO2 as a warming gas


I read recently that the measurement used in showing warming are situated on top ( flat tar roofs) of building within cities, the bulk of the measurements are are from these temperature recording devices... go figure why....
If you "Read it recently" can you find it and post it here? Because that sounds more like a comment from the peanut gallery than a well informed comment about weather instrumentation. There are VERY few thermometers around the globe that fit that description of placement and maybe you shouldn't then presume they are all like that and that they are all like that for nefarious purposes.

I noticed also that the trillions of dollars generated from carbon taxes go somewhere but where and in what proportions?...who pockets this money?
In Canada, 100% of our money goes into feeding other carbon lowering schemes; window/insulation/furnace replacement; solar power. All those kinda things.

most of the carbon emissions are from China, Pakistan, India, yet they continue and no one intervenes.
If you talk about per capita, that isn't correct.
Also, China is embarrassing the US with it's Solar capacity development.

CO2 has become a cult and is not based on science, now people think CO2 is toxic. Yet the minimum concentration of atmospheric CO2 for vegetation to grow is only half of the current value or about 200 PPM, we are close to that minimum.
The response to CO2 being a greenhouse gas is characterized by Dunning Kruger.


All of this to say, of course, who cares? Everyone knows co2 helps plans and more co2 helps plants grow. That does not then follow, that CO2 is a good thing to have in our atmosphere.


That guy can show you an experiment that CO2 captures heat.


All these facts I have researched and verified many years ago, I encourage people to do the same.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if you verified this "many years ago" your information is weak and old and in time for an update. Let me know if I can help point you to stronger sources than what you've been reading.
 
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sjastro

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I leave it as an exercise to the reader how many psychological "Dragons of Inaction" mentioned in the The psychology behind climate change denial. thread apply to this post.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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I am a scientist all i said is true and verified.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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atmospheric water vapour also captures heat in the warming potential index it is 300 times more than co2, it represents abut 2.3 to 5% of total atmospheric gas depending on humidity levels.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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JesusFollowerForever

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I know people prefer to believe the narrative from the news medias but sometimes the truth is elsewhere;


the person writing this article above is to be trusted.
 
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AV1611VET

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Factoring the OP into this post:

Land and sea temperatures have warmed much more than models forecast in the last year, and as of these articles various new factors being considered appear not enough to account for that spike. Relatively speaking it's quite large.

... it would appear we now need a much, much deeper shade of red, don't we?

And if it's "quite large," apparently this "deeper red" needs to be spread out further?
 
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Paulos23

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biochemistry post doc, physics (msc), and plant physiology Doc.
So not atmospheric science or chemistry. Don't think you have the training for me to accept your claims without more evidence.
 
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eclipsenow

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That's like saying "I never understood how a tiny funnel web bite could kill someone. To me it would have to be MUCH more venom...."

Dude - science is not about what makes sense "to you".
It's not about "your opinion."
It's about the demonstrable, repeatable heating forcing of CO2. Any decent physics lab can demonstrate it. Then some maths.
Mythbusters even demonstrated it.
 
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JesusFollowerForever

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So not atmospheric science or chemistry. Don't think you have the training for me to accept your claims without more evidence.
the evidence is in the data just look for it, i did not believe it myself until in canada they announced a carbon tax on gasoline, our P.M. Trudeau said he would plant 200 million trees, well, years later only 20 thousads, yes we still cut the trees for wood like decimate forest in french it is called coupe a blanc, I dont know the correct way to say it in English, sorry but it means to raze completely leaving nothing standing.

i posted for everyone to look for themselves it is o.k not to trust someone on the internet i get that no problem.

Blessings.
 
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