Two Pennsylvania polls yesterday -- two quite different results

[NightHawkeye]

Herewith, two Pennsylvania polls taken yesterday, ostensibly of "likely" primary voters.

2012 Pennsylvania Republican Primary - Rasmussen Reports™

Santorum 42%
Romney 38%
Ron Paul 7%
Gingrich 6%

​

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_PA_404.pdf

Romney 42%
Santorum 37%
Ron Paul 9%
Gingrich 6%

​

One poll is the inverse of the other in relation to Romney and Rick Santorum. Weird ...

 

[brinny]

that IS strange.

 

[NightHawkeye]

that IS strange.

The results are certainly within the margin of error of 4%+ for both polls though. Several interpretations are possible, the most reasonable being that the race is a toss-up.

 

[brinny]

Which might be a good thing

 

[kermit]

If Santorum is going into his home state in a toss up race it's doesn't bode well for his chances in a national race.

 

[brinny]

it'll be interesting to see how this unfolds

 

[Eternally Optimistic]

both are with in the MoE. in PA...among likely GOP voters, buh-bye Santorum.

 

[NightHawkeye]

If Santorum is going into his home state in a toss up race it's doesn't bode well for his chances in a national race.

Of course, it's also worth noting that this PPP poll is the only poll since last November which has shown Romney in the lead. It could just be an "outlier".

Additionally, PPP is a Democrat polling outfit which has seen fit recently to release polls which benefit Romney.

 

[Eternally Optimistic]

If Santorum can't win PA by a big margin his campaign is in real trouble.

 

[NightHawkeye]

If Santorum can't win PA by a big margin his campaign is in real trouble.

LOL ... I'm still waiting for Romney to amass overwhelming support ... yawn ...

 

[Eternally Optimistic]

LOL ... I'm still waiting for Romney to amass overwhelming support ... yawn ...

let's take a look at home states shall we:

Romney won MA by over 60% (72.2% to 12%)

Gingrich won GA by over 20% (47.1% to 25.9%)

Santorum may not even win his home state...if he loses PA it will kill his campaign, if he wins it by a respectable margin he may linger on a while longer.

 

[Vylo]

Killing santorum's campaign would require it to be alive. He's going to have enough trouble just stopping Romney from hitting 1144.

 

[DaisyDay]

From the second link:

Romney has 42% to 37% for Santorum with Ron Paul at 9% and Newt Gingrich at 6%.​

That's confusing.

 

[Maren]

Of course, it's also worth noting that this PPP poll is the only poll since last November which has shown Romney in the lead. It could just be an "outlier".

Additionally, PPP is a Democrat polling outfit which has seen fit recently to release polls which benefit Romney.

Actually, your last post was more on point -- both polls are within the margin of error of the other poll, so the race is likely just a toss up at this point. It is also worth noting that Romney is only just starting to campaign in PA but that he was down by almost 20 points a few weeks ago.

Also of note is the fact that Santorum is taking four days off this weekend for Easter and to reevaluate. Be interesting to see what effect this may have.