Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

lordjeff · Apr 28, 2020

The Sun-earth geometric relationship is what changes over the longterm. The Sun has its weather & distinct layers with a specific process. This particular star radiates mostly in the visible light range, the UV range, & IR range. It does radio waves as well-something not visible to us & it does X-rays. Since the Earth has a good history of ice ages it points to the Sun's behavior on gigantic effects. The 1.8C increase in the 20th century is only a small increase.

Hans Blaster · Apr 28, 2020

lordjeff said:
The Sun-earth geometric relationship is what changes over the longterm. The Sun has its weather & distinct layers with a specific process. This particular star radiates mostly in the visible light range, the UV range, & IR range. It does radio waves as well-something not visible to us & it does X-rays. Since the Earth has a good history of ice ages it points to the Sun's behavior on gigantic effects. The 1.8C increase in the 20th century is only a small increase.

Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope. Nope.

The "geometric relationship" between the Earth and Sun (the precession of the orbits and axis and all that) happens on MUCHHHHH longer scales than decades or even a few centuries. Try again.

"weather & layers" "specific processes" "it does X-rays": So what! How do these change on the time scales we are talking about (decades)? [Hint: they dont.] [Good grief even Mozina can talk accurately and coherently about the Sun's output.]

"history of ice ages": Surprise! These are *actually* tied to those geometric relationships mentioned before and happen on multi-millennium time scales. They are not tied to intrinsic variation in the Sun itself.

"1.8C in the 20th century" is *NOT* (repeat: NOT!) a small increase. THAT'S THE WHOLE POINT! The observed warming is out of place, unusual, strange, not common, previously unseen in recorded history.

Let's not flog the ex-horse anymore.

lordjeff · Apr 28, 2020

I know solar cycles are over milleniums. But 1.8 is small. Given that the planet has had numerous hothouse/icehouse states there were periods where there had to be large declines or large inclines. 1.8 increase as an average is bunk.

Hans Blaster · Apr 28, 2020

lordjeff said:
I know solar cycles are over milleniums. But 1.8 is small. Given that the planet has had numerous hothouse/icehouse states there were periods where there had to be large declines or large inclines. 1.8 increase as an average is bunk.

Again, 1.8 degrees is not small. It corresponds to the entirety of *all* global temperature variation over the last 10,000 years, i.e., the entire history of civilization, i.e., everything since the end of the last ice age. What happened before that isn't relevant to what our civilization needs to prosper.

I'm including a plot created for a Wikipedia article that shows a large set of temperature paleoclimatic reconstructions of the temperature. It clearly shows this. Here's the link to the wiki page describing the figure: File:2000 Year Temperature Comparison.png - Wikimedia Commons

I know you're not going to like it, because I've heard your complaints about such plots before. (Though this plot would say that your "1.8 degree" value is too large anyway.)

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

What about the other warmings, the Holocene maximums and the Roman warming as well as the Medieval warming.

Subduction Zone · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
What about the other warmings, the Holocene maximums and the Roman warming as well as the Medieval warming.

What about them? The Medieval warming period can be seen on the graph in the post that you responded to. It was warm but it is not as large of a warming as we are facing now. It was largely limited to Europe. It was greater there than elsewhere around the world. We are right now facing a global warming. Hmm, that sounds familiar. And it is the rate of warming that is a problem. A warming that is too rapid has a deleterious effect on many species of life. That is what scientists are worried about.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

The Mann hockey stick graph was reconstructed from one data set of tree rings. Mckindreck and Mackintire found errors in the coalation of data entry. Many other graphs showing a global Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age use more than just one data set to construct thier graphs. It would appear that this modern warming is only one of five warmings we have had in the past 12000 years. Every 1500 years we have been having a warming. The Holocene maximums and the Roman warming and the Medieval warming came every 1500 years and CO2 cannot be blamed for the previous four warmings.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

www.sciencedigest.com talking about the MWP that it was global and warmer than now. So was the Holocene maximums global and warmer than now.

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
The Mann hockey stick graph was reconstructed from one data set of tree rings. Mckindreck and Mackintire found errors in the coalation of data entry. Many other graphs showing a global Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age use more than just one data set to construct thier graphs. It would appear that this modern warming is only one of five warmings we have had in the past 12000 years. Every 1500 years we have been having a warming. The Holocene maximums and the Roman warming and the Medieval warming came every 1500 years and CO2 cannot be blamed for the previous four warmings.

That's why I posted a figure using multiple reconstructions. The links to the sources of the data are in the link I posted with the figure.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

www.co2science.org shows that the MWP was global and warmer than now, so were the Holocene maximums, global and warmer than now.

This demonstrates that the modern warming up is a natural occurrence like the previous warming events.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

we have further proof of the global extent of the Medieval warm period
700 scientist from 400 instutions in 40 countries show the MWP was global and warmer than now.

Type in your search engine: 700 scientist from 400 instutions in 40 countries agree.

My cell phone I am working on is not able to get the URL for the website.

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
we have further proof of the global extent of the Medieval warm period
700 scientist from 400 instutions in 40 countries show the MWP was global and warmer than now.

Type in your search engine: 700 scientist from 400 instutions in 40 countries agree.

My cell phone I am working on is not able to get the URL for the website.

That was a fun link...

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
www.co2science.org shows that the MWP was global and warmer than now, so were the Holocene maximums, global and warmer than now.

This demonstrates that the modern warming up is a natural occurrence like the previous warming events.

co2science.org? You mean these people:
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change - Wikipedia

Literally a front for a coal mining company. I wonder why they want to stop worrying about climate change and get us to love carbon dioxide? Gee.

As I noted earlier in this thread (or the offshoot, I forget), in the last 12 years coal burning electrical production is down 50%, and it keeps going down.

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
This demonstrates that the modern warming up is a natural occurrence like the previous warming events.

Actually... the past modeling has been shown to explain the current climate state.

The very first link I found in my search:

Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

And another, showing many old models and data that came afterward. Even models from 1981 did a good job:

Analysis: How well have climate models projected global warming? | Carbon Brief

and so forth...

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

It is still true that the MWP was global and warmer than now. 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries state that these past warmings especially the Holocene maximums were global and warmer than now

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
It is still true that the MWP was global and warmer than now. 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries state that these past warmings especially the Holocene maximums were global and warmer than now

That's not what the plot I posted says. We need a (working) reference. If you need to wait to get to a computer that you can post URLs from, then do so.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

It's very well recognized by the peer reviewied papers that the MWP was global and warmer than now. 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries show the MWP was global and warmer than now. The Mann hockey stick graph minimises the MWP and the LIA.

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
It's very well recognized by the peer reviewied papers that the MWP was global and warmer than now. 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries show the MWP was global and warmer than now. The Mann hockey stick graph minimises the MWP and the LIA.

(functional) Link Required.

greatcloudlives · Apr 29, 2020

Simply type in your search engine - 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries say that the MWP was global and warmer than now.

Hans Blaster · Apr 29, 2020

greatcloudlives said:
Simply type in your search engine - 700 scientist from 400 instutions from 40 countries say that the MWP was global and warmer than now.

Not a link. I'm willing to wait...

Twenty years of two and a half degrees of warming

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