Turkish troops moving into Syria

[Speedwell]

Don't forget Iran.

Is that Trump's secret plan? Sucker Iran into a war against Turkey (a NATO member)? Sounds more like something Bolton would have thought of.

 

[mindlight]

The Kurds supported the US fight against ISIS. Trump does not want to help them as Turkey launches its assault. Trump has a conflict of interest in Istanbul: a Trump Towers office, residential and shopping complex.

If that really is the mans reasoning then most likely he is going straight to hell. I like to think that he has higher reasons and interests than that. But Erdogan could not threaten Trumps personal business empire without incurring immense risks to his own economy so I doubt this is what is happening here.

 

[Nithavela]

Is that Trump's secret plan? Suck Iran into a war against Turkey (a NATO member)?

I think Trumps secret plan might have more to do with his building projects in Istanbul.

 

[mindlight]

Is that Trump's secret plan? Sucker Iran into a war against Turkey (a NATO member)? Sounds more like something Bolton would have thought of.

But if Turkey weakens the SDF so that the Iranian backed Assad regime can win back the territories held by the Kurds why would they want a war with Turkey. They achieve their interest of a Shia corridor and Assad gets most of his country back for the loss of small sliver of Syrian land in the North.

 

[Nithavela]

If that really is the mans reasoning then most likely he is going straight to hell. I like to think that he has higher reasons and interests than that. But Erdogan could not threaten Trumps personal business empire without incurring immense risks to his own economy so I doubt this is what is happening here.

We might be able to tell if the Trump White House hadn't broken with the decades old practice of publishing telephone call summaries in 2018.

 

[Nithavela]

But if Turkey weakens the SDF so that the Iranian backed Assad regime can win back the territories held by the Kurds why would they want a war with Turkey. They achieve their interest of a Shia corridor and Assad gets most of his country back for the loss of small sliver of Syrian land in the North.

There's nothing better to unite a country torn up by internal strife than an outside aggressor.

Also, even if Syria doesn't want to, Russia is their most important ally and has good reasons to support a war between syria and turkey.

 

[Speedwell]

But if Turkey weakens the SDF so that the Iranian backed Assad regime can win back the territories held by the Kurds why would they want a war with Turkey. They achieve their interest of a Shia corridor and Assad gets most of his country back for the loss of small sliver of Syrian land in the North.

That depends on whether the Syrians believe that Turkey merely wants to "weaken" the SDF.

 

[Nithavela]

That depends on whether the Syrians believe that Turkey merely wants to "weaken" the SDF.

I think it's pretty clear that turkeys real ambition is to redraw the border between syria and turkey and take the most fertile land of syria for its own.

 

[mindlight]

That depends on whether the Syrians believe that Turkey merely wants to "weaken" the SDF.

Both Turkey and Syria want to destroy the SDF/YPG, so their interests are temporarily aligned although Assad should bluster about Turkish incursions in Syrian Sovereign territory even if they help him achieve his long terms aim of reuniting the country. In the long run there is a potential conflict here between a resurgent Syria and Turkey in occupation of its fertile Northern lands. Those who fled the war were not in the main government supporters and may regard Turkey as a better protector than the Syrian government. The plot thickens!

 

[Speedwell]

I think it's pretty clear that turkeys real ambition is to redraw the border between syria and turkey and take the most fertile land of syria for its own.

Right. Erdogan's plan is to drive out the Kurds and resettle Syrian refugees under Turkish hegemony.

 

[Speedwell]

Both Turkey and Syria want to destroy the SDF/YPG, so their interests are temporarily aligned although Assad should bluster about Turkish incursions in Syrian Sovereign territory even if they help him achieve his long terms aim of reuniting the country. In the long run there is a potential conflict here between a resurgent Syria and Turkey in occupation of its fertile Northern lands. Those who fled the war were not in the main government supporters and may regard Turkey as a better protector than the Syrian government. The plot thickens!

The "long run" may already be upon us.

 

[mindlight]

I think it's pretty clear that turkeys real ambition is to redraw the border between syria and turkey and take the most fertile land of syria for its own.

If Erdogan manages to displace the Kurds then he will fill these hills with Arabs who are not necessarily pro Assad or pro Kurd

 

[mindlight]

The "long run" may already be upon us.

Let us see how Assad reads and reacts to this.

He seems to condemn it but Iran is strangely silent

ANALYSIS: Iran worked with Ankara and Assad during Turkish incursion

 

[SoldierOfTheKing]

But popular opinion and military opinion is very supportive of the Kurds as the resignation of Matthis last year showed.

Public opinion is not supportive of a fight with Turkey. Public opinion is not supportive of more foreign military action generally. The results of our last three presidential elections show that.

But do we want the Kurds throwing in with Assad and Putin against Turkey?

That's exactly what I would like to see. Unity between the Kurds and Damascus could finally return peace and stability nto that war-torn country.

The Kurds supported the US fight against ISIS.

No, the US supported the Kurdish fight against ISIS. Big difference.

 

[Speedwell]

Public opinion is not supportive of a fight with Turkey. Public opinion is not supportive of more foreign military action generally. The results of our last three presidential elections show that.

And how does "public opinion" feel about supporting our NATO ally Turkey in a war against Syria backed by Russia and Iran?

That's exactly what I would like to see. Unity between the Kurds and Damascus could finally return peace and stability into that war-torn country.

Unity between the Kurds and Damascus against Turkey. That sure sounds like "Peace in our time."

No, the US supported the Kurdish fight against ISIS.

Out of the goodness of our heart.

 

[Brian Mcnamee]

Face it: The USA left the Kurds to die, and now they are dying.

Psalm 2 says the nations will rage and plot a vain thing and the leaders will take counsel against the LORD and His anointed says lets cast off their bonds from us.. This is all part of the game that is bringing the world into the chaos needed for the final stage to be set when the restrainer is taken out of the way and the man of sin is revealed. Ezekiel 38 could be starting to form now as Turkey is part of this alliance with Iran and Russia and they all have positions in Syria now. Israel is just next door and what will be the hook in the jaw that precipitates this? Israel may be the real objective and the Kurds a stepping stone.

 

[Silverback]

I do not like terrorists generally having been brought up in the UK during the IRA era when even going to a supermarket could cost you your life and there were regular bomb threats against our school. The YPG as a Marxist guerrilla organisation within the borders of the Turkish sovereign state is not an attractive ally. But the Kurds in North Iraq and the SDF fighters against Daesh did the whole world a favour in the way they handled ISIS. We ( and I include the British and Germans in that) befriended them and provided air strike support and special forces help. The Germans supplied the Kurds with essential supplies by air also. To some extent the Kurds are already managing their own state in Northern Syria and Iraq and the Turks real goal is to smash that state and to replace it with Turkish hegemony in the region. So this is no longer just a Terrorist threat to Turkey this is effectively an invasion of lands which the Kurds now call their hard won homes.



Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, indeed the invention of ICBMs and global range bombers and drones I really do not know why we think we need Turkey so much as an ally. They were hoped to be a conduit of Western civilisation into the region instead they are becoming an Islamist and nationalistic force on the lines of the old Ottomans. The Kurds by contrast fought with us to achieve our goals of the elimination of Baathism and Daesh while the Turks scowled from the sidelines.



So the predominantly Sunni Kurds provide a buffer between a pro Shia regime in Damascus, an Iraq dominated by Shias and Shia Iran. The Russians are ultimately seeking to use this Shia corridor possibility as a lever into the region. Turkey is also Sunni and I cannot imagine the Russians are overjoyed to see a Turkish counterbalance to their favourite Assad in the country. They would prefer to see the government smash the SDF completing the corridor and providing an alternate route for oil to flow to the Med via Shia pipelines thus counterbalancing Saudi power in the region.



And we should help them in that. But I do think that the value of a weak, divided and chaotic Syria to Israels security interests is past its sale by date now. Now we want peace , a balance of powers and maybe a division of Syria between the government and the SDF could be a part of that to keep the country weak. If the Turks weaken the SDF too much then the Russo/Iranian backed government forces will seize the rest of Syria back and that is not in Israels interest.



I wish the UK was not so preoccupied with BREXIT. It is like we have just switched off from International politics the last 3 years and major things have been happening. But as you say we do have a power projection capability of our own. It is one we prefer to use in coordination with the Americans however. The kind of interventions that may be necessary are yet to be clarified. I just hope this Turkish invasion does not overturn the move towards peace and a precarious balance of forces that has been occurring these last few years.

Well said...We are both in political turmoil right now, but I do hope, and I pray we can put our domestic houses in order and return to mutual respect, and friendship.

Regrettably, I think we still have a few more years of problems to work through.

Sad to say

 

[Basil the Great]

This is a NATO nation moving aggressively against what until recently were the allies of another NATO nation. Not sure Article 5 really covers this.

Probably not, though I imagine that they could find some way to do something, if things turn really bad with many civilian losses.

 

[Silverback]

Face it: The USA left the Kurds to die, and now they are dying.

Maybe, no troops have been withdrawn yet, we may just lay low for a while, or shift to Northern Iraq. The U.S. Has only around 1000 boots on the ground which is a battalion of infantry, and a six gun battery of artillery. Most of our presence is in northern Iraq. We will have Naval units off shore as well.

However, you could be correct, the US is deeply divided to the point of inaction, and cannot reach an agreement on any point of policy. And it is likely to get worse, at least in the near term.

if we do abandon the Kurds, and give Turkey a free hand to rape, pillage, and murder, then all Americans should feel ashamed...I know I would.

But we must try to see Turkish side as well, there has been a decades long insurgency involving the Turks, and the Kurds. Both sides have committed shameful atrocities, and it goes on year after blood soaked year.

I don't pretend to understand all the issues on both sides of the conflict. Perhaps the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

[rjs330]

Are we really the only thing that stands between the Kurds and the Turks? How much do we have over there anyway? I'm really sick of all this defensive war stuff. If we are really defending the Kurds from the Turks then let's defend them. Let's bomb the heck out of all the Turks military machine, shoot all their planes out of the sky etc. Let's do this right and really out them out of business. All this "just holding them back" war does is cost us money and American lives. It's dumb.