from:
Here's how candidates endorsed by Trump performed in the midterm elections
"On the House side, Trump-endorsed candidates broadly performed well: 141 of the 162 endorsed candidates had been deemed election winners by AP as of Wednesday afternoon.
"Nine candidates backed by Trump have lost their elections"
"When it comes to general-election candidates endorsed by Trump, the former president’s win rate is relatively high: at least 68% on the Senate side, with four races yet to be decided, and at least 87% on the House side, with 12 outstanding races.
"Trump’s Senate win rate could go as high as 88% if all his remaining candidates win; if only the candidates who are currently leading win, his rate would be 76%. His House rate would tick up to 90% if the five candidates he endorsed who are currently leading win.
ok so that is an "odd" result to then have all the liberal doom-and-gloom summaries about Trump as if the election results demonstrate that he did not know up from down about elections. It is almost as if the rule they use is "if Trump does not perform miracle then we can ignore his views".
I looks to me like he is still taking up a lot of real estate in liberal news minds these days.
The problem with this statistic is that many of those elections were not competitive at all. Furthermore, the criticism of Trump is that he would back more fringe candidates in the primaries (causing them to win those primaries), but then they'd perform badly in the general election.
Thus the "141 of 162" is a useless number. One should only be examining cases where Trump endorsed a candidate in a primary that wasn't certain to go to that candidate to begin with
and the general election was one that could have plausibly gone for either the Democrat or the Republican.
So, for example, Ron Johnson and Marco Rubio should not be counted, as they would have won their primaries regardless of what Trump did; Rubio had no primary challengers, and the only one who went up against Johnson was clearly doing so as a protest rather than a serious candidate.
Similarly, we shouldn't be counting people like John Boozman, who won in Arkansas; it's a state the Republican is going to win regardless of who gets nominated by either party. And, to be fair, we shouldn't be counting losses in non-competitive states either, like Leora Levy losing in Connecticut. Finally, only cases where he give an endorsement during the primary should be counted; giving one after the primary is irrelevant for this purpose.
So once we get rid of all of those cases, here are the ones we seem to be left with:
Ted Budd (North Carolina): Won
J.D. Vance (Ohio): Won
Herschel Walker (Georgia): Find out next month in the runoff!
Blake Masters (Arizona): Lost
Adam Laxalt (Nevada): Lost
Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania): Lost (note that Oz was Trump's second choice; his first endorsement was Sean Parnell, but he was an even worse candidate than Oz that got hit with a bunch of scandals that caused him to withdraw during the primary, and Trump changed his endorsement to Oz.)
Obviously we can't give a definite percentage rate here, as we don't know if Walker will win or not. Still, even if he wins, Trump is only 50/50 with the endorsements, and if he loses than Trump only had 33% of them elected.
Now, the above was just for the Senate; it took me long enough to figure it out for the Senate I wasn't interested in evaluating the House and Govenror. But here is a full list of his endorsements (which is what I was working off of for the Senate), and if anyone is interested they can try to figure it out for House or Governors:
Ballotpedia: The Encyclopedia of American Politics
ballotpedia.org
EDIT: Upon reflection, I don't think Walker should be counted, which Trump 40% success with the Senate endorsements. See
my subsequent post.
