Trump deserves credit for bringing Iran to the table

[DZoolander]

Ambassador to Germany: Trump deserves credit for bringing Iran to the table, is open to cutting new deal with regime

I bet two of our best mountain goats that it will be a better deal than Obama made.

Of course that should be easy.

M-Bob

I predict it'll be simply a repackage of the Obama deal.

 

[Yekcidmij]

Watched the interview with Iran's FM tonight which confirms my view on the weakness of Obama's original agreement - the agreement was never ratified in accordance with the US constitutional provisions regarding treaties. It was a pretty interesting interview. In Iran's view, "a deal is a deal" (his words) and it was a made with an elected official, namely Obama. In the view of US law, it was an "Agreement Pursuant to Treaty" which was never ratified by the Senate and so carries no real weight in accordance with law. So, though in Iran's view "a deal is a deal," in US law no real deal was made, and I think it could be argued that it wasn't even an Executive Agreement. This could be a structural flaw in the US constitution, or it could be that (a) Obama made a mistake by not ratifying it in the Senate and (b) Trump made a mistake by not sticking by the deal anyway.

Some here don't think that Obama was susceptible to mistakes though - only his successor is. I think they're both only human and each perfectly capable of making their own errors. Obama made a strategical error in not ratifying the deal in the Senate, probably because he understood that any deal wouldn't be ratified by a Republican Senate. But he made the deal anyway, probably understanding the risk that his successor might not abide by it. In most normal circumstances, he would have been correct - his risk wouldn't have materialized and so it would have been a risk worth taking - but Trump isn't normal and the risk materialized. In short, Obama made a miscalculation about his successor. He calculated it would be someone more like Hillary or Jeb, who would have stuck by the agreement anyway. He simply miscalculated the actual degree of commitment of his successor.

 

[The Barbarian]

Hi MM,

I'm just curious, but wasn't Iran at the table when the first agreement was made? Who brought them to the table then? Donald Trump?

Obama put together a coalition that made it happen. "Want to sell your oil? Want your money we seized, back? Shut down your nuclear program."

It worked. Until Trump broke the treaty, allowing Iran to keep the money, and go back to enriching uranium.

Nice work, um?

 

[Yekcidmij]

Until Trump broke the treaty,

Under US law it wasn't a treaty.

 

[The Barbarian]

Under US law it wasn't a treaty.

Technically, an agreement. Iran agreed to stop its uranium enrichment for nuclear weapons, and we let them have their money back.

It's more than a little stupid to abrogate that agreement, since they already have their money. Now we have no leverage, and since it was Trump who reneged on the agreement, they have all the excuse they need to also ignore it.