Trends Democrats Need To Face/Address

[mark46]

Is it your claim that because young people don't like Biden they are going to throw their support to the Republicans?

Of course not, many will just stay home, and they will vote in percentages normal to young people.

 

[mark46]

We should all recall just how close the 2020 election was, even with the heroic efforts by the youth and by blacks.

Had Trump stayed home for last 2 weeks of the campaign, he likely would have taken PA, MI and GA, winning by 20 electoral votes. Of course, the Senate would also have won by the Republicans by winning one of the GA Senate seats.

How safe is VA for the Democrats? AZ? NV? WI?
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For me, if Trump doesn't run, we'll see the DEM progressive candidate easily defeated. If Trump does run, my analysis starts with Trump 30 electoral votes ahead, picking up PA, GA and MI. If the DEMs keep GA or MI and all the rest, they will win by a massive 2 electoral (actually, one vote away from the House crowning Trump).

What states would the Democrats be very likely to pick from Trump in the interior of the country? Any?
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We need to remember, the total popular vote is irrelevant. It just doesn't matter by how much the Democrats win the Northeast and the West coast.

 

[Ana the Ist]

LET ME BE VERY CLEAR
I don't any Democrat would beat a non-Trump Republican candidate in 2024.
I think that Trump is likely to defeat any progressive Democrat in 2024.


SOME FURTHER THOUGHTS

Biden should announce as soon as possible so that the 2024 race would be as open as possible. However, I've watched the party for over 60 years. IMO, the race would NOT be wide open. Harris would be the strong favorite, with the possibility of her being defeated only by someone from the far left.

I don't see anyone holding any illusions of competence about Harris anymore.

As far as Fetterman, I suppose he is one that Trump could beat, along with others on the left such as AOC. He is on the far left of the party. If I am wrong, then the party is much worse shape than I previously thought.
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There are candidates that might win the election, but they won't win the nomination. Newsome could win. Cantrell (The mayor of NO) could win. Gov Whitmer could win. I suppose Gov Abrams would have a chance.

I just don't think what is now called a "progressive" could win for the first time in US history. The country just hasn't moved that far to the left. The Democrats could test this proposition yet again, as they have at least since they forced McGovern on us. (that is, after giving lukewarm support to Humphrey and giving us Nixon).

BOTTOM LINE
I don't think that any Democratic candidate that can be nominated would be able to defeat a Republican not named Trump (certainly not DiSantis or Pence).

Also, IMO, blue collar workers have moved significantly to the right since 2015, certainly in states like MI and PA.

There's an ideological division on the left.

 

[Fantine]

There's an ideological division on the right, too.
Should I describe it as reality-based v.s. stop the steal based?

 

[mark46]

There's an ideological division on the right, too.
Should I describe it as reality-based v.s. stop the steal based?

I see it somewhat differently. I believe that each party has severe divisions.

The Republicans have old-guard conservatives and the Trumpers.

The Democrats have the old-line liberals and the progressives.

There are those in each party who try to be in the middle. These numbers have become smaller and smaller. It is more comfortable for many in the middle to withdraw from politics or call themselves independents (those without allegiance to a set of party principles).

For me, there is a race to the extremes.
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It is a "long time" since those in the parties respected the other side. Yes, in this generation of politics, 15 years is a very long time.

The Bushes are close friends of the Clintons. Bush's folks worked well with Obama on transition, even with Obama keeping many Bush folks in his administration. Democrats even respected many of the Republican candidates who ran for the nomination in 2016.

How far we have come. Pence and Kemp are heroes and profiles in courage because they opposed the overthrow of the election.
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Make no mistake. I strongly disagree with the policies of the conservatives in Republican Party (there are almost no real moderates). However, I would have no problem seeing that we might return to a
reasonable political future of a conservative Republican is elected in 2024.

Congress has failed America by not passing laws regarding immigration, abortion, same sex marriage, and election count/security. This did NOT have because McConnell won't work with Biden. These issues have been around for decades, with many periods where Democrats were in control.

Democrats have been fine with expecting SCOTUS to be the lawmaker in all of these areas. They is LEGITIMATE disagreement with regard to the role of SCOTUS vs. the role of Congress and state legislatures. Democrats have had their way in having an active SCOTUS since 1954. We think that our view of the Court must be the future view.

THE BOTTOM LINE
Congress can act on any of these issues. If Democrats can't elect enough folks to the Senate and the House in 50 years to address these issues, why should we expect SCOTUS to step it and take the place of Congress.

I HAVE A SUSPICION
that the Democratic Party has zero problems with states that provide for abortions to be 100% at the choice of the mother, and have problems with states that forbids abortions to after 14 weeks or later (with exceptions). The Democrats have had 50 years of codify the conditions of Roe. They failed and left the issue to the courts, and now whine when the courts don't agree with them.

The bottom line is that Roe was a questionable decision. There is no clear right or wrong legally. What is clear is that Congress is the place to pass legislation if we don't want to rely on state legislatures.

 

[mark46]

There's an ideological division on the right, too.
Should I describe it as reality-based v.s. stop the steal based?

The open question for the parties is which groups will control their parties in 2024 and 2028. Both parties have the opportunity to have moderate or extremist candidates for president in 2024.