Trends Democrats Need To Face/Address

[mark46]

BLACK VOTERS
A large majority still vote Democratic, but there are many socially conservative black folk whose votes matter outside the coastal cities. Those votes have significantly shifted to the Republicans from 2008 through 2020.

HISPANIC VOTERS
Hispanic voters may be majority Democratic, but non-urban Hispanic voters are more likely to be Republican. They are social conservatives, despise being called Latin-X, a religious, and are conservative on social issues. If immigration is important to them, they favor the Republicans. HOWEVER, with regard to treatment of Hispanics IN THE US, they favor the Democrats.

The switch from has been dramatic (about a total of 18% of Hispanic voters.

The Democrats simply assume that they know what Hispanics should care about. They rarely even bother with Spanish media.

LET'S BE CLEAR
Republicans at local and state levels are paying attention. There are many black, Hispanic, (and female) Republican candidates. Their candidates are a cross-section of America.

SHOULD THE DEMOCRATS PANIC
The answer is a clear "yes". Yes, demographics matters, and NOW the demographics facor the Republicans. The reality is that it doesn't much matter if cities are 80% or 90% Democratic. The Republicans can make up for this elsewhere.

SUBURBAN WHITE WOMEN
These have always been a republican stronghold that has move to the Democrats in the last 20 years. The Democrats have decided that they know how these voters should approach school issues. Perhaps, the Democrats learned something in VA; it seems unlikely.
=====================================
HELPING THE DEMOCRATS
One group has moved to the Democrats in the most important shift in many decades. College educated whites used to be a firm Republican voting block. Now, they are a firm Democratic voting block.

The other help to the Democrats is the gift that keeps on giving: Donald Trump. His campaigning gave Biden the presidency, and then control of the Senate by his campaigns in GA. [It is possible that the overthrow of Roe will boost the Democratic vote enough to gain a few seats, and a Senate seat or two. But I don't see the Democrats coming to a consensus Democratic position/principle other that a women's unfettered right to choose. The Dems COULD choose to back the principle supported by the vast majority of Americans, by focusing on protecting the right to early abortions, on the exceptions, and on the right to prescriptions drugs, and the right to travel.

In essence, the Democrats need to fight as much as they can, to support the rule of law (the support of Roe), along with the right of states to place certain limits on abortion, AS ROE AND THE FOLLOWING DECISIONS ALLOWED.

In 2022, the Republicans should have the biggest switch in Congress in many decades. If Trump had stayed on the sidelines, the Republicans would have gained 2-4 Senate seats. Now they may not gain any. Democrats need to get him to come to GA again, to PA, to AZ, to NV, to NH, and to other key states.

BOTTOM LINE
The parties have switched sides in the political class war.

The rich voters, by far, favor Democrats. Educated voters, by far, favor Democrats. Non-urban Middle Class voters are solidly Republican.

IMO, the only hope for the Dems is for Trump to announce soon, and to be very active. I don't see any of the Democrats beating any Republican but Trump in 2024.

 

[Fantine]

You don't mention young people.
Problem is they are waiting for bold moves.
They want someone inspiring who will push the envelope. Bernie. AOC. New hero John Fetterman.
Biden has to flood Washington with executive orders in the next few months to impress them.
If they are impressed, they'll go out and vote, especially the young women--and then he won't have to worry about the West Virginia spoiler anymore.

 

[Yttrium]

I can make no predictions with Trump still in the mix. He's too much of a wild card. He can wreck the plans of both parties.

 

[mark46]

You don't mention young people.
Problem is they are waiting for bold moves.
They want someone inspiring who will push the envelope. Bernie. AOC. New hero John Fetterman.
Biden has to flood Washington with executive orders in the next few months to impress them.
If they are impressed, they'll go out and vote, especially the young women--and then he won't have to worry about the West Virginia spoiler anymore.

2020 was extremely close. Maybe young voters will turn out in large numbers to vote against Trump, even though he isn't running; perhaps not.

AOC and the left will likely keep up voter turnout in the cities.

 

[mark46]

I can make no predictions with Trump still in the mix. He's too much of a wild card. He can wreck the plans of both parties.

Sure, Trump is the wildcard. Without him having such a huge influence, the Republicans could relax and just collect their large increases in 2022 and 2024.

 

[Fantine]

2020 was extremely close. Maybe young voters will turn out in large numbers to vote against Trump, even though he isn't running; perhaps not.

AOC and the left will likely keep up voter turnout in the cities.

The Court decisions are the reason. Abortion might be the driver, but climate is very important to young people. LGBTQ rights. Voting rights.
There are more nones than church members among the young. They worry about theocracy quite a bit. They think that Jesus has been manipulated and misinterpreted by evangelical groups, and the hypocrisy they see in many churchgoers is their turn-off.

They hear "praise the Lord and pass the ammunition" and want no part of organized religion.

It is sad, because only they, coming in numbers, can bring about the kind of faith our country needs.

I am discussing how my adult children and their friends feel. It is meant to be an explanation, not a criticism.

 

[hislegacy]

You don't mention young people.
Problem is they are waiting for bold moves.
They want someone inspiring who will push the envelope. Bernie. AOC. New hero John Fetterman.
Biden has to flood Washington with executive orders in the next few months to impress them.
If they are impressed, they'll go out and vote, especially the young women--and then he won't have to worry about the West Virginia spoiler anymore.

On average, fewer than 3 in 10 adults under the age of 30 approve of Biden's job performance as president, and a majority disapproves, according to online polling conducted by The Economist and YouGov. Biden's net negative 21 approval rating with the demographic is his worst among any age group, the organizations found. On top of that, Biden has a net negative 17 rating among people aged between 30 and 44.
​

And that is in December of 2021 less than a year of Biden's rule through executive order the young are leaving him in droves.

Just two days ago:

A New York Times poll making waves in the swamp this week shows President Biden polling at 33 percent nationally, marking the lowest approval rating of any first-term president since Harry S. Truman​

Young voters played a crucial role in pushing Biden over the top in those states, along with other thin margins in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Young voters supported Biden over Trump 58-38 in 2020. No age group favored Biden more, per an analysis from the non-partisan Pew Research Center. The 20-point margin was likely decisive to Biden’s victory.

But in 2022, voters under the age of 30 have almost completely abandoned the president. According to the Times poll released last Sunday, 94 percent of voters 18-29 do not want Biden to run again in 2024. You read that correctly. 94 percent. ​

 

[Fantine]

Most of us think Biden shouldn't run again. He will be 82.
But who would I prefer--a kindly, doddering man who surrounds himself with capable advisors
Or an authoritarian wannabe dictator who tried to overthrow the government, listens to no one, exhibits impulsive and vindictive behavior?
Surely we can find better candidates than that--but I will take the kindly man a million times over.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Most of us think Biden shouldn't run again. He will be 82.
But who would I prefer--a kindly, doddering man who surrounds himself with capable advisors

Who are these capable advisors?

Or an authoritarian wannabe dictator who tried to overthrow the government, listens to no one, exhibits impulsive and vindictive behavior?

I don't see January 6th as the kind of threat to democracy that others seem to. It's not as if physically occupying the Capitol gives anyone control over the nation. Trump needed people with actual power to act on his behalf, and they didn't.

There are things that I do consider a threat to democracy....like political propaganda in schools, government oversight of free speech, and institutional failure.

 

[mark46]

Most of us think Biden shouldn't run again. He will be 82.
But who would I prefer--a kindly, doddering man who surrounds himself with capable advisors
Or an authoritarian wannabe dictator who tried to overthrow the government, listens to no one, exhibits impulsive and vindictive behavior?
Surely we can find better candidates than that--but I will take the kindly man a million times over.

for sure

However, the Republicans might make it much easier for the voters and nominate someone else.

 

[Fantine]

DeSantis is clamping down on education and free speech in Florida. He shows troubling signs of authoritarianism. The Navy Seals who have gone into politics seem like a very dangerous bunch to me. So I assume you are talking about De Santis.

I would call the Supreme Court an institutional failure, manipulated by McConnell, ideologically corrupted, without a moral compass with democracy as its true north.

1/6 was more than a day. It was attempts to alter election results. Setting up alternative electors sworn to vote against the candidate voters selected. It is propaganda which has deceived over 40% of the population.i am glad you recognize these dangers, Ana.

 

[mark46]

Who are these capable advisors?



I don't see January 6th as the kind of threat to democracy that others seem to. It's not as if physically occupying the Capitol gives anyone control over the nation. Trump needed people with actual power to act on his behalf, and they didn't.

There are things that I do consider a threat to democracy....like political propaganda in schools, government oversight of free speech, and institutional failure.

Pence risked his life by inisting on the vote in opposition to the wishes of Trump, and given Trump's threats. Pence then risked his life again (and that of others) after the attack and recess by insisting that he stay at the Capitol and have the vote on the required date.

No one knows what steps Trump would have taken the next day if Pence hadn't insisted on the vote. We should all remember that disputed elections can be sent to the House with states having one vote each.
=================
Make no mistake. We came close.

 

[Fantine]

It wasn't me.

The Bible is the foundation of three great faiths--Judaism, Islam (the Koran), and Christianity. Many faiths do not interpret the Bible literally.

I don't let message board posters define whether I am a Christian or not based on their own criteria.

I am Christian through my Baptism, my participation in a community of believers, and my relationship with the Trinitarian God.

For a Biblical metaphor: The Pharisees continually tried to trap Jesus and catch him violating the tenets of Jewish observance, and we saw how wrong THAT was.

 

[Fantine]

Biden may not run for reelection, too.

It would be wide open. I know it's counterintuitive, but I kind of like John Fetterman. He is joyously, enthusiastically real and out there. Obviously it worked for Trump in generating excitement.

Fetterman also has a good sense of values and is a good person. He is not a cookie cutter institutional politician. Unapologetically progressive.

John Fetterman - Wikipedia

Of course, I love, love, love Katie Porter. No one knows kitchen table economics like Katie. No one knows how to afflict the comfortable like Katie. She's a Harvard PhD in economics with the right sense of values and a heart for the little guy. Elizabeth Warren with a whiteboard and a completely disarming authenticity.

Katie Porter - Wikipedia

But most of the people who ran last time could be back.

 

[Ana the Ist]

DeSantis is clamping down on education and free speech in Florida.

How?

He shows troubling signs of authoritarianism.

Again....how?

The Navy Seals who have gone into politics seem like a very dangerous bunch to me. So I assume you are talking about De Santis.

I would call the Supreme Court an institutional failure, manipulated by McConnell, ideologically corrupted, without a moral compass with democracy as its true north.

I find that remarkable. Surely you didn't expect to agree with every decision they make?

1/6 was more than a day. It was attempts to alter election results.

I think some were there for that purpose...but they didn't have any plans. I read the transcripts about the Oath Keepers. Their plan was to storm the Capitol....every day....until Trump proved the election was fraudulent.

That's an astonishingly dumb plan. These people are certainly foolish, and they committed crimes, but I don't think they had any real chance of overthrowing the election.

I also have to wonder if they would have even had the guts to do it if they hadn't seen politicians cowering before the demands of angry mobs for about the prior 6 months.

Setting up alternative electors sworn to vote against the candidate voters selected.

Let's hope that if Trump is guilty of anything, he's charged with it before all these Democratic Party members are voted out.

It is propaganda which has deceived over 40% of the population.i am glad you recognize these dangers, Ana.

I don't know what isn't propaganda. USA Today fired a reported because they were threatened with being outed for fake news. She had fake stories, fake interviews, fake sources....she's literally made up the news.

That's a big deal....USA today is a supposed fact checker for a lot of social media. I don't really believe that they had no idea about the reporter. I think they probably encouraged it. This is not a good time for the facts. It's a great time for lies.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Biden may not run for reelection, too.

It would be wide open. I know it's counterintuitive, but I kind of like John Fetterman. He is joyously, enthusiastically real and out there. Obviously it worked for Trump in generating excitement.

Fetterman also has a good sense of values and is a good person. He is not a cookie cutter institutional politician. Unapologetically progressive.

John Fetterman - Wikipedia

Of course, I love, love, love Katie Porter. No one knows kitchen table economics like Katie. No one knows how to afflict the comfortable like Katie. She's a Harvard PhD in economics with the right sense of values and a heart for the little guy. Elizabeth Warren with a whiteboard and a completely disarming authenticity.

Katie Porter - Wikipedia

But most of the people who ran last time could be back.

Didn't see any policy positions under Porter.

 

[Belk]

On average, fewer than 3 in 10 adults under the age of 30 approve of Biden's job performance as president, and a majority disapproves, according to online polling conducted by The Economist and YouGov. Biden's net negative 21 approval rating with the demographic is his worst among any age group, the organizations found. On top of that, Biden has a net negative 17 rating among people aged between 30 and 44.
​

And that is in December of 2021 less than a year of Biden's rule through executive order the young are leaving him in droves.

Just two days ago:

A New York Times poll making waves in the swamp this week shows President Biden polling at 33 percent nationally, marking the lowest approval rating of any first-term president since Harry S. Truman​

Young voters played a crucial role in pushing Biden over the top in those states, along with other thin margins in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Young voters supported Biden over Trump 58-38 in 2020. No age group favored Biden more, per an analysis from the non-partisan Pew Research Center. The 20-point margin was likely decisive to Biden’s victory.

But in 2022, voters under the age of 30 have almost completely abandoned the president. According to the Times poll released last Sunday, 94 percent of voters 18-29 do not want Biden to run again in 2024. You read that correctly. 94 percent. ​

Is it your claim that because young people don't like Biden they are going to throw their support to the Republicans?

 

[Fantine]

TBT I have found almost all their decisions are bad. None of the Senators who confirmed them did it just for Roe. They wanted more guns, more oil, less climate remediation, more money from corporate donors, fewer progressive voters, gerrymandering districts.

Porter became famous questioning the likes of Jamie Dimon and Louis Dejoy at hearings, and using a whiteboard, leaving them with a solid dozen eggs on their faces. She is the people's champion, Joan of Arc with a whiteboard.
If she could moderate presidential debates, people would learn so much--especially who was on their side.
She's very active on Twitter.
You can't miss her. Our knight on a white charger. Our heroine.

 

[Ana the Ist]

TBT I have found almost all their decisions are bad. None of the Senators who confirmed them did it just for Roe. They wanted more guns, more oil, less climate remediation, more money from corporate donors, fewer progressive voters, gerrymandering districts.

Porter became famous questioning the likes of Jamie Dimon and Louis Dejoy at hearings, and using a whiteboard, leaving them with a solid dozen eggs on their faces. She is the people's champion, Joan of Arc with a whiteboard.
If she could moderate presidential debates, people would learn so much--especially who was on their side.
She's very active on Twitter.
You can't miss her. Our knight on a white charger. Our heroine.

Sadly, also full of garbage....

Katie Porter visited the border....not enough medical screenings she said. She knows economics, how many billions do we already spend on people illegally entering the country Katie?

Then she claimed to have studied immigration law....and lamented the length of detention for people here illegally (because that's who gets locked up in ICE detention) and how this disrupted their ability to work while waiting on their asylum hearing....

Hey Katie, they aren’t allowed to work at all....they're here illegally.

For an economics expert she doesn't seem to understand the problem with illegal immigration. Nice of her to be honest about the separation of parents and children though....that's still happening, always has.
I don't know if she's messing with the bank CEO and wants him to answer....or if she genuinely doesn't know the answer to her question about single mothers and starting salaries.

 

[mark46]

It would be wide open. I know it's counterintuitive, but I kind of like John Fetterman. .

LET ME BE VERY CLEAR
I don't any Democrat would beat a non-Trump Republican candidate in 2024.
I think that Trump is likely to defeat any progressive Democrat in 2024.


SOME FURTHER THOUGHTS

Biden should announce as soon as possible so that the 2024 race would be as open as possible. However, I've watched the party for over 60 years. IMO, the race would NOT be wide open. Harris would be the strong favorite, with the possibility of her being defeated only by someone from the far left.

As far as Fetterman, I suppose he is one that Trump could beat, along with others on the left such as AOC. He is on the far left of the party. If I am wrong, then the party is much worse shape than I previously thought.
========
There are candidates that might win the election, but they won't win the nomination. Newsome could win. Cantrell (The mayor of NO) could win. Gov Whitmer could win. I suppose Gov Abrams would have a chance.

I just don't think what is now called a "progressive" could win for the first time in US history. The country just hasn't moved that far to the left. The Democrats could test this proposition yet again, as they have at least since they forced McGovern on us. (that is, after giving lukewarm support to Humphrey and giving us Nixon).

BOTTOM LINE
I don't think that any Democratic candidate that can be nominated would be able to defeat a Republican not named Trump (certainly not DiSantis or Pence).

Also, IMO, blue collar workers have moved significantly to the right since 2015, certainly in states like MI and PA.