BLACK VOTERS
A large majority still vote Democratic, but there are many socially conservative black folk whose votes matter outside the coastal cities. Those votes have significantly shifted to the Republicans from 2008 through 2020.
HISPANIC VOTERS
Hispanic voters may be majority Democratic, but non-urban Hispanic voters are more likely to be Republican. They are social conservatives, despise being called Latin-X, a religious, and are conservative on social issues. If immigration is important to them, they favor the Republicans. HOWEVER, with regard to treatment of Hispanics IN THE US, they favor the Democrats.
The switch from has been dramatic (about a total of 18% of Hispanic voters.
The Democrats simply assume that they know what Hispanics should care about. They rarely even bother with Spanish media.
LET'S BE CLEAR
Republicans at local and state levels are paying attention. There are many black, Hispanic, (and female) Republican candidates. Their candidates are a cross-section of America.
SHOULD THE DEMOCRATS PANIC
The answer is a clear "yes". Yes, demographics matters, and NOW the demographics facor the Republicans. The reality is that it doesn't much matter if cities are 80% or 90% Democratic. The Republicans can make up for this elsewhere.
SUBURBAN WHITE WOMEN
These have always been a republican stronghold that has move to the Democrats in the last 20 years. The Democrats have decided that they know how these voters should approach school issues. Perhaps, the Democrats learned something in VA; it seems unlikely.
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HELPING THE DEMOCRATS
One group has moved to the Democrats in the most important shift in many decades. College educated whites used to be a firm Republican voting block. Now, they are a firm Democratic voting block.
The other help to the Democrats is the gift that keeps on giving: Donald Trump. His campaigning gave Biden the presidency, and then control of the Senate by his campaigns in GA. [It is possible that the overthrow of Roe will boost the Democratic vote enough to gain a few seats, and a Senate seat or two. But I don't see the Democrats coming to a consensus Democratic position/principle other that a women's unfettered right to choose. The Dems COULD choose to back the principle supported by the vast majority of Americans, by focusing on protecting the right to early abortions, on the exceptions, and on the right to prescriptions drugs, and the right to travel.
In essence, the Democrats need to fight as much as they can, to support the rule of law (the support of Roe), along with the right of states to place certain limits on abortion, AS ROE AND THE FOLLOWING DECISIONS ALLOWED.
In 2022, the Republicans should have the biggest switch in Congress in many decades. If Trump had stayed on the sidelines, the Republicans would have gained 2-4 Senate seats. Now they may not gain any. Democrats need to get him to come to GA again, to PA, to AZ, to NV, to NH, and to other key states.
BOTTOM LINE
The parties have switched sides in the political class war.
The rich voters, by far, favor Democrats. Educated voters, by far, favor Democrats. Non-urban Middle Class voters are solidly Republican.
IMO, the only hope for the Dems is for Trump to announce soon, and to be very active. I don't see any of the Democrats beating any Republican but Trump in 2024.
A large majority still vote Democratic, but there are many socially conservative black folk whose votes matter outside the coastal cities. Those votes have significantly shifted to the Republicans from 2008 through 2020.
HISPANIC VOTERS
Hispanic voters may be majority Democratic, but non-urban Hispanic voters are more likely to be Republican. They are social conservatives, despise being called Latin-X, a religious, and are conservative on social issues. If immigration is important to them, they favor the Republicans. HOWEVER, with regard to treatment of Hispanics IN THE US, they favor the Democrats.
The switch from has been dramatic (about a total of 18% of Hispanic voters.
The Democrats simply assume that they know what Hispanics should care about. They rarely even bother with Spanish media.
LET'S BE CLEAR
Republicans at local and state levels are paying attention. There are many black, Hispanic, (and female) Republican candidates. Their candidates are a cross-section of America.
SHOULD THE DEMOCRATS PANIC
The answer is a clear "yes". Yes, demographics matters, and NOW the demographics facor the Republicans. The reality is that it doesn't much matter if cities are 80% or 90% Democratic. The Republicans can make up for this elsewhere.
SUBURBAN WHITE WOMEN
These have always been a republican stronghold that has move to the Democrats in the last 20 years. The Democrats have decided that they know how these voters should approach school issues. Perhaps, the Democrats learned something in VA; it seems unlikely.
=====================================
HELPING THE DEMOCRATS
One group has moved to the Democrats in the most important shift in many decades. College educated whites used to be a firm Republican voting block. Now, they are a firm Democratic voting block.
The other help to the Democrats is the gift that keeps on giving: Donald Trump. His campaigning gave Biden the presidency, and then control of the Senate by his campaigns in GA. [It is possible that the overthrow of Roe will boost the Democratic vote enough to gain a few seats, and a Senate seat or two. But I don't see the Democrats coming to a consensus Democratic position/principle other that a women's unfettered right to choose. The Dems COULD choose to back the principle supported by the vast majority of Americans, by focusing on protecting the right to early abortions, on the exceptions, and on the right to prescriptions drugs, and the right to travel.
In essence, the Democrats need to fight as much as they can, to support the rule of law (the support of Roe), along with the right of states to place certain limits on abortion, AS ROE AND THE FOLLOWING DECISIONS ALLOWED.
In 2022, the Republicans should have the biggest switch in Congress in many decades. If Trump had stayed on the sidelines, the Republicans would have gained 2-4 Senate seats. Now they may not gain any. Democrats need to get him to come to GA again, to PA, to AZ, to NV, to NH, and to other key states.
BOTTOM LINE
The parties have switched sides in the political class war.
The rich voters, by far, favor Democrats. Educated voters, by far, favor Democrats. Non-urban Middle Class voters are solidly Republican.
IMO, the only hope for the Dems is for Trump to announce soon, and to be very active. I don't see any of the Democrats beating any Republican but Trump in 2024.