Theology behind prepping and even investment in general

[createdtoworship]

Thanks for the offer, but I have an entirely different approach to making it financially (slow and steady). I'm also pretty well fixed financially.

I try to help people who are just buying a holding, and don't know how to do much else. It works good to do that, but not right before a recession. But good luck on your finances I hope it works out for you, I really do. You'll be fine, because you have the Lord as your God.

 

[dqhall]

passive investing is actually long term buy and hold investing. That is the technical definition, but I define it as any investment that is not active. That can be tuning up your car to save on gas, or weather stripping your home, investing in insulation to save energy and money. That is investing. It's just passive. And yes index investing is part of passive investing. All this stuff I get into, I mention some stuff I can't talk about here due to the "no advice" rules of the forum. If any one is interested and wants a copy they are totally free, and I simply do my best to give my recommendations for the coming recession, defensive plays for investing, and offensive strategies. But to be honest if you are following the Lord all this stuff should come to you naturally through the spirit. You don't need me or anything I write. The Lord is the same Lord and reveals His wisdom liberally to all who seek Him in repentance and humility.

Some funds are actively managed with people picking stocks to buy and sell. Other funds invest in an index like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, TSX, etc. These are passively managed funds.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

I try to help people who are just buying a holding, and don't know how to do much else. It works good to do that, but not right before a recession. But good luck on your finances I hope it works out for you, I really do. You'll be fine, because you have the Lord as your God.

At my age I can't take risks. All my savings are in FDIC or NCUA accounts. I beat inflation by simply making much more money than I spend, so the low interest rates on these accounts don't bother me. Because I'm still working my SS benefit goes into savings as well, and has in fact increased nearly $300 per month since I started drawing it, as higher income years replace lower income years in the calculus. Of course it is taxed at the federal level.

 

[createdtoworship]

Some funds are actively managed with people picking stocks to buy and sell. Other funds invest in an index like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, TSX, etc. These are passively managed funds.

Yes! Over all passive management is not day trading or swing trading, it's holding "long." Long term buy and hold strategies. Or dollar cost averaging. If they are selling those funds regularly to buy others that becomes active management. Which I am sure you know. Active managed funds have shifted in recent years to adopt ETF's. Usually they just used mutual funds or bonds. ETFS were looked at as the new kid on the block, many managers could not compete with SPY and SPX. So they either quit wallstreet or got on board with ETFS and index funds. Many ETF'S are based on foreign equities and I believe gave them a bad name. And that should. Foreign markets are more risky, but they forgot that many ETF'S are based on highly liquid companies with good earnings, and high market caps that are based on US companies and companies abroad that are just as good.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Home ownership remains the best wealth building tool for the common man. Housing downturns, as well as bank foreclosures, motivated sellers, present buying opportunities, while inflation is reflected in rising home values. There is the opportunity to make improvements at low cost by DIY. There are also tax advantages, and you get to live in it.

 

[createdtoworship]

Home ownership remains the best wealth building tool for the common man. Housing downturns, as well as bank foreclosures, motivated sellers, present buying opportunities, while inflation is reflected in rising home values. There is the opportunity to make improvements at low cost by DIY. There are also tax advantages, and you get to live in it.

well lets look at it historically,

granted you bought your home at the bottom of market you would have gained approximately 250% interest or a little under. And say you buy a 160,000 dollar home at bottom of market and charge 1500 a month rent that is another 144,000 in income over 8 years. so 390 plus 144 minus original investment of 160 = 374,000 dollars return on a 160,000 dollar investment that is 233% return for 8 years. Or 29% a year return. Now it's about half of that because you may need to liquidate to have a home to live in and can't cash out. If this is a second or third home then that is not the case. Now that is a good return in perfect situations. Lets compare that to index funds and stock market. The market went up 10% this year, and if you were in a triple leveraged fund you would have made 50% this year in (UPRO). So you can make more in the stock market, and can make money any year and in any economic situation. Houses not so much, it could take 1-5 years to hit the bottom of the housing market to enter responsibly. That is roughly 100% loss of return compared to if you were in a leveraged fund, and monitoring it. I don't recommend people use leverage, or do investments on borrowed money, or on money they can't afford to lose. But you cannot beat the returns if you know what you are doing.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

well lets look at it historically,

granted you bought your home at the bottom of market you would have gained approximately 250% interest or a little under. And say you buy a 160,000 dollar home at bottom of market and charge 1500 a month rent that is another 144,000 in income over 8 years. so 390 plus 144 minus original investment of 160 = 374,000 dollars return on a 160,000 dollar investment that is 233% return for 8 years. Or 29% a year return. Now it's about half of that because you may need to liquidate to have a home to live in and can't cash out. If this is a second or third home then that is not the case. Now that is a good return in perfect situations. Lets compare that to index funds and stock market. The market went up 10% this year, and if you were in a triple leveraged fund you would have made 50% this year in (UPRO). So you can make more in the stock market, and can make money any year and in any economic situation. Houses not so much, it could take 1-5 years to hit the bottom of the housing market to enter responsibly. That is roughly 100% loss of return compared to if you were in a leveraged fund, and monitoring it. I don't recommend people use leverage, or do investments on borrowed money, or on money they can't afford to lose. But you cannot beat the returns if you know what you are doing.

Most people aren't prepared for the risks in such investments. Best to go slow and play it safe. One can sleep better knowing the house will be there in the morning. Not so with the markets.

 

[createdtoworship]

Most people aren't prepared for the risks in such investments. Best to go slow and play it safe. One can sleep better knowing the house will be there in the morning. Not so with the markets.

if people simply understood trending, support and resistance price levels, some basics of moving averages. They would win 2 to 3 times what they lose every time. They would lose about half or more but they would be minimal losses.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

if people simply understood trending, support and resistance price levels, some basics of moving averages. They would win 2 to 3 times what they lose every time. They would lose about half or more but they would be minimal losses.

I'd be suspicious of sure-fire methods of profiting in the markets.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

well lets look at it historically,

granted you bought your home at the bottom of market you would have gained approximately 250% interest or a little under. And say you buy a 160,000 dollar home at bottom of market and charge 1500 a month rent that is another 144,000 in income over 8 years. so 390 plus 144 minus original investment of 160 = 374,000 dollars return on a 160,000 dollar investment that is 233% return for 8 years. Or 29% a year return. Now it's about half of that because you may need to liquidate to have a home to live in and can't cash out. If this is a second or third home then that is not the case. Now that is a good return in perfect situations. Lets compare that to index funds and stock market. The market went up 10% this year, and if you were in a triple leveraged fund you would have made 50% this year in (UPRO). So you can make more in the stock market, and can make money any year and in any economic situation. Houses not so much, it could take 1-5 years to hit the bottom of the housing market to enter responsibly. That is roughly 100% loss of return compared to if you were in a leveraged fund, and monitoring it. I don't recommend people use leverage, or do investments on borrowed money, or on money they can't afford to lose. But you cannot beat the returns if you know what you are doing.

The way to buy a house is to be saving money until a good purchase is found. Every dollar saved is 'equity' in the future house. So even if your savings account only pays 1 percent interest the same money will 'earn' 4 percent when you actually buy the house as it will reduce the amount of the mortgage needed.

 

[createdtoworship]

I'd be suspicious of sure-fire methods of profiting in the markets.

you are right 95% of people lose. That is because they use lagging indicators that are often too late. I think billionaires in the market actually make indicators most likely so that new traders can use them and lose. I wouldn't be suprised. Fresh meat is what most stock brokers look for. It's dog eat dog. That is why simply looking at price is what has to happen, or follow someone who is monitoring it daily. I follow a guy that has made 60% every month for several months. I don't know if he can keep it up. But it's possible.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

you are right 95% of people lose. That is because they use lagging indicators that are often too late. I think billionaires in the market actually make indicators most likely so that new traders can use them and lose. I wouldn't be suprised. Fresh meat is what most stock brokers look for. It's dog eat dog. That is why simply looking at price is what has to happen, or follow someone who is monitoring it daily. I follow a guy that has made 60% every month for several months. I don't know if he can keep it up. But it's possible.

Interesting, as 90 percent of businesses fail within three years as well. We are a nation of failures. Fortunately we can recover in time to pay for our funeral expenses.

 

[createdtoworship]

Interesting, as 90 percent of businesses fail within three years as well. We are a nation of failures. Fortunately we can recover in time to pay for our funeral expenses.

yeah, just trusting in God and having obedience toward His word sets us ahead of the crowds.

 

[createdtoworship]

Interesting, as 90 percent of businesses fail within three years as well. We are a nation of failures. Fortunately we can recover in time to pay for our funeral expenses.

I did just chart SPLV versus vanguard 2045 retirement fund and SPLV not only blew vanguard four to oner on earnings, it lost less percent on each downturn. But anyway I talk more about SPLV and what it is exactly in my document. Just message me and I will send the link download. It's 14 pages. But has a lot about saving money, and investing with different risks especially in turbulent times, so you don't have to pay a manager. Simply moving an IRA to Td ameritrade allows one to put a trailing stop on all long holds. Tra

 

[createdtoworship]

Here is a screen shot of article. I put several charts on why I think the recession has already started, stuff you won't hear on Fox news or financial channels...

But like I said everything I have learned anyone can learn through the spirit as they obey and pray. It's the same spirit in all of us

 

[createdtoworship]

If someone wanted to put a IRA or 401K in SPLV and put a 10% trailing stop on it, for the high market levels, then sell at top. Then rebuy at bottom with a 20% trailing stop. That is exactly what I am doing, hastle free, no fees, don't have to watch it. It messages when it sells. But you can only do trailing stops on brokers.

 

[createdtoworship]

I posted a little bit, but this is a summary of the 14 page article. This is not advice and is my personal plan of investment but I realize everyone else is different. I recommend asking for the whole article as I go over a lot of stuff.

SPLV = 130% over last 8 years. That's 16.25% a year. If someone put 50 dollars a week into a fund at the current rate per year, they would make 74,528.28 in 10 years. 20 years it would be 448,000, 30 years it would be 2,348,000. That is the power of compound interest. That is only 50 dollars a week in a general market fund with a 10% trailing stop. So when recession hits you stop out. And when at bottom of market you may go to UPRO which is a 3x fund. Triple the return. And at that point you put a 20% trailing stop. Then when market gets high again you go back to SPLV love volitility and put a 10% trailing stop. Basically the only time you adjust is at recessions and bottom of market. No need to watch it every month or year. Just set it and forget it. That is what I plan to do. Transfer 401k into Roth IRA at TD Ameritrade and do it there. I go over all sorts of retirement accounts and which is best and why as well as other tax free accounts that one may not know of, just message me and I will give link to download.

 

[createdtoworship]

I added two charts to my 14 page document

here they are

 

[createdtoworship]

I think God orders our steps. I think that with God no recession can take down a follower of God. He provides for His own. Typically I give this information to non christians because they need help. But I thought I would post it here too: Recession.pdf

I update the word document regularly but people.have complained they could not read the charts. I will ocasionally update the pdf every few weeks.
Here is the link to the most recent version: Recession

Later tonight I will upload an image of a long term chart of SPLV
View attachment 268721

 

[createdtoworship]

Sorry image did not post: