I'm pretty sure Methodists don't want to become Baptists. What they want is for the US church to have the same degree of partial autonomy as the church in Africa and other areas outside the US. The requirements of the UMC mission in the US are (in the opinion of representatives of the annual conferences) different in the US and other places. That's why the central conferences (those outside the US) were given the freedom to adjust the discipline. When that was done, the same thing should have been done for the US, but I'd guess that no one anticipated that the non-US church would become such a large fraction, or that they would react the way they have.
Moderates and liberals had not prepared for the 2019 GA. They're now beginning to look at the implications. Two possibilities are being pursued: a split, and staying.
It's not clear what staying will mean, but a recent actions by Baltimore-Washington suggest that a number of conferences are simply going to ignore the Traditional Plan. In the PCUSA, higher-level bodies can if they feel it appropriate, take over and change the actions of lower ones. My reading of the UMC constitution is that this is not possible in the UMC. If 2/3 of the annual conferences consider the One Church plan to be in effect in the US, it may be in effect.