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a bargaining chip for what? Democrats simply want to make the reconciliation bill passed by Congress null and void.to use a shutdown as a bargaining chip.
PREDICTION
The shutdown will last at least a month while departments LEGALLY furlough all non-essential workers. Eventually, the Republicans will "cave in" and give back some of the Medicaid and ACA subsidy cuts, but that's all. And then, many of the non-essential workers will find that their jobs are no longer there for non-essential employees. 100K jobs or more will be gone. And, yes, whole departments will be almost gone.
This process will have a repeat next year when the 2026 reconciliation bill will again reduce government.
And then the people will vote, probably giving Democrats the House. And then, Trump will do everything by Executive Order, much as Biden did, and as Obama did when they lost their majorities in Congress.
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