You forgot to present a case to comment on?
I've been presenting a very clear case for two pages, you're just ignoring my point because it is convenient for you to do so.
I don't think anyone doubts that a progression takes place. Get over it. The issue is, how long has it and will it go on, and how do we know?
We know it existed since at least the Babylonians and ancient Egyptians, we know this because they identified these factors, so your curve needs to be adjusted at least that far back. How far into the future it will go is irrelavent.
Now then, as I pointed out in my last post, and what you did not respond to in this post: The burden of proof is on you to provide evidence as to the accuracy of using only obliquity instead of all three motions.
I am tired of repeating myself. Provide affirmative evidence that using only obliquity instead of all three motions is preferable, or cede the point and the discussion to me.
Are you suggesting that since Egypt, we cannot plot a curve on the data, as Dodwell did, unless we also include something like Newcomb's curve?
You are either being intentionally obtuse or you are truely a simpleton. Dodwell DID plot his data against Newcomb's curve. Newcomb's curve addresses obliquity only. You know this, but you are trying to make a circular argument anyway.
You know exactly what I am suggesting: That Dodwell has plotted his points against a curve that does not take all factors into account.
I am tired of repeating myself. Provide affirmative evidence that using only obliquity instead of all three motions is preferable, or cede the point and the discussion to me.
First you show me why he would need to plot something else in?
I have done this repeatedly by pointing out that obliquity is not the only motion that affects our observations. You are well aware of this.
I am tired of repeating myself. Provide affirmative evidence that using only obliquity instead of all three motions is preferable, or cede the point and the discussion to me.
"The correct principle, therefore, in studying the mediaeval and ancient observations of the obliquity of the ecliptic, should be, firstly, to obtain as many of these observations as possible; secondly,
to correct each one, as far as possible, for any known or ascertainable source of error; and then to draw the curve which unites them all with one another and with the modern observations. Then, from the mathematical character of the curve, we may perhaps find some new truth or circumstance, disclosed by the observations, and previously unsuspected..."
Dodwell Manuscript
The last sentence of this quote belies Dodwell's biggest error: He is
looking for something 'previously unsuspected', or, in other words, he's come to a conclusion and is trying to fit his data to that conclusion.
But anyway, that is of no consequence. The fact remains that he has only corrected for one of three known factors. His comparison is incomplete until he accounts for all known factors. The quote provided does not in any way confirm that he has done so. If you would like to show that he has corrected for precession and eccentricity, post these corrections. They would be found in his methods section.
Apparently, what he was comparing against here, as it says on the bottom, was the secular old age curve from Newcomb's formula!
For the nth and last time: Newcomb's curve only plots obliquity. It is only one part of the overall curve, which includes eccentricity and precession, and which I have shown to be fact. This means that Dodwell's comparison is incomplete, rendering it false.
So, if you think we must add in the Exxon 2 year profit curve, or the Yankee's 20 year winning/losing curve, or something else, you need to explain why.
Strawman and red herring rolled into one.
How is the data invalidated by not being compared with some other one?
It is invalidated by not being compared to a curve that includes all factors. Do you see why this is a problem?
If a baseball analyst told you that Fred McGriff is the best batter ever because he has the best average ever against the fastball, would that fly? No, because batting average isn't calculated only against fastballs. It's calculated against all pitches (changeup, curveball, slider, knuckleball, cutter, etc.).
Can anybody tell I'm pumped for baseball season?
Since the curve seems to be made from the data, and follow the data, show me where the error is. Simple request.
The error has been pointed out to you a dozen times at least. If you don't see it yet (I'm sure you do), then you're a lost cause. You are, intentionally or not, conflating my argument against the curve that Dodwell plots against with an objection against his dates. Amend this mistake.
Except, I am not sure what your point is yet.
Then you haven't been reading my posts.
Apparently you have an affinity for some other curve. You need to explain why anyone should care? How would axial progression since Egypt affect something Dodwell pointed out?
I have shown my curve to be significant multiple times. I won't do it again. Dodwell's conclusions are affected because he is making a comparison to an incomplete curve.
We can rule out this curve..!!
Do so scientifically. This means that you are not allowed to invoke a different-state past unless you have emperical scientific evidence for its existance. You do not, so do not invoke it.
"In
astronomy,
axial precession is a gravity-induced, slow and continuous change in the orientation of an astronomical body's rotational axis. In particular, it refers to the gradual shift in the orientation of
Earth's axis of rotation, which, like a wobbling top, traces out a
cone in a cycle of approximately 26,000 years .."
wiki
Good. You admit that precession occurs, and is thus a motion which must be corrected for.
Why? Because observations don't go back that far.
They do not need to. The cycle's duration can be extrapolated from observed motion. That the entire cycle hasn't been observed is irrelevent; you can see 10% of a circle and still calculate its radius, circumfrence and area.
Dodwell was pushing the limit just getting to 2345 BC! That is a big problem for you.
No it's not, as I've just explained.
We are not looking at same state based, unobserved theorizing here, remember!
Red herring. I will not address this ludicrous speculation.
"Milanković mathematically
theorised that variations in
eccentricity,
axial tilt, and
precession of the Earth's orbit determined climatic patterns on Earth."
Another red herring. We are not discussing climate patterns (although Milankovitch's theory has been shown to be accurate, which lends even more weight to the importance of eccentricity and precession).
I mention lurkers once in a while, seldom actually. You are getting ridiculous! Obsessed, much??
I am not debating for you, I am debating for the layman who is viewing this thread in order to demonstrate the error in the 'science' you posted. You obviously can't be swayed, because you do not care what reality has to say.
26,000 dream year imaginary cycles are NOT science, or data, or observed. Either you support them big time, pronto, or lose them.
Jibberish. Drivel.
Agreed. You have been given ample opportunity to defend your position against evidence indicating that it is wrong. You have failed to do so, and all indications are that you will continue to fail. I am done with this conversation until you address the content of my posts instead of frantically building straw men and painting red herrings. Move the goalposts as much as you would like, but everyone here can see that that is exactly what you are doing.
If someone who would like to hold a reasonable conversation is inclined to come to Dad's defense, I welcome your input. If you do this, please include in your first post a scientific affirmation that obliquity is the only motion against which Dodwell's data points need be plotted. In order to do this successfully, you must show that axial precession and orbital obliquity are insignificant when observing the celstial.