6 months ago there were millions of cases of flu and it was killing ~140 Americans a day.
Six months ago was the beginning of Flu season. Since then 22k people have died from flu. It was technically inaccurate to say there was zero 6 months ago, I was just setting the beginning of the time line for comparison.
We'll be there in a week.
So your prediction is by next week there will have been 22k covid deaths? So that would mean an average of 2000 per day for the next 7 days? Interesting.
What are you talking about? The US reported 1300+ COVID19 deaths yesterday. That's a matter of public health record.
I'm putting it in the same terms you put it. Averaged out over the past 5 months, it's 58 per day. Whereas flu has averaged ~200 a day. I started based on the number you posted. It's actually this year about 122 a day for the past 6 months. So covid is half that daily average right now. That doesn't mean that there weren't days that flu killed 1300 or more in one day. It also doesn't mean that covid will remain at that 58 per day average. But it still has a great deal of catching up to do.
"assuming it's even accurate". Classic. Let me guess, as this gets worse and worse, you'll keep believing the flu numbers whilst doubting the COVID19 numbers despite both being collected by the same agencies with similar methodology.
Flu numbers could be inaccurate. They are based on estimates which are extrapolated from a baseline of tested cases after all. But we know that Italy over-reported its covid deaths (and still is probably doing that now) by as much as 88%. Also, many so-called confirmed cases world wide are actually "presumed" cases. Many of those could be wrong.
Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?
On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
I gotta ask, why are you so keen on lying to yourself about this outbreak?
I am reading what health professionals are actually saying about it, not lying to myself. I also know that the CDC inflated the H1N1 numbers by as much as 80% in
2009. That was proven by FOIA requests to state health agencies which delivered their testing data. It's well within the realm of possibility that they are getting it wrong now. I'm not suggesting anything other than they are known to get it wrong. Why they do that is not even anything I want to discuss. I'll chalk it up to incompetence and leave it at that.
But these are two different issues. On one hand, the numbers do not show CV as being more of an impact (yet) than the flu in terms of personal health. Economically it's been an unmitigated disaster. 6 million so far have been put out of work. That isn't covid's fault but politician's reaction to it.
On the other hand we also know for certain that we don't have any numbers on "non-confirmed" cases which would give us some comparison that was more appropriate to flu. We have no reliable estimates or guesses as to the number of people who have gotten CV and never even went to a hospital. It could be a huge number. The estimates for flu cases run orders of magnitude higher than the number of confirmed (tested) cases every year. That would bring the morbidity calculation for covid, if there are as many unreported cases, well below 1 percent. There are already countries now that are below 1% and those coincidentally are the ones performing more tests.
