Stay at Home works very well...for the areas people really keep distance

[Halbhh]

I thought this was really interesting a day or 3 back (?) (so many articles), but was too busy to post it. It turns out there is a way to know that the shelter in place, stay at home -- which even the slow, slow Texas Governor is finally doing, though he doesn't want to call it what it is -- actually works. Of course....that is if the people of the region/state actually do it pretty well... If.

For those staying at home, there has been a very dramatic drop in the fevers rate:

"...Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.

The trend has become so obvious that on Sunday, President Trump extended until the end of April his recommendation that Americans stay in lockdown. Mr. Trump had hoped to lift restrictions by Easter and send Americans back to work.

“That would have been the worst possible Easter surprise,” said Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, who added that he thought the Kinsa predictions were based on “very robust technology.”

Kinsa’s thermometers upload the user’s temperature readings to a centralized database; the data enable the company to track fevers across the United States....

Kinsa has more than one million thermometers in circulation and has been getting up to 162,000 daily temperature readings since Covid-19 began spreading in the country...."

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

As one can see at the site, typical rates of fevers have dropped drastically for those sheltering in place.

This will make a difference, for the areas where people actually do the recommended practices of keeping distances from others. And by the way, if someone is actually coughing or sneezing then one needs even more than only 6 feet (though a mask could help some) if you are in front of them. But even just talking spreads the virus from those asymptomatic spreaders (they don't even have a chance to know they are spreading it), which is why Governors are trying to get people to listen. Most Governors. Most.

Tell me, how much sense does it make though for a shelter in place recommendation to exclude churches? Little. God does not need you to be in a certain building or certain location in order for Him to be present for you.

It's also interesting you can look up your local infection rate, but a caution about that: even if it is low, that doesn't mean you are perfectly safe to congregate at a party or cookout....

 

[Halbhh]

Florida. Not the only place with plenty of fever. But it stands out. Hope the people with underlying conditions really do keep themselves separate there long enough.

 

[dogs4thewin]

I know I have been at the house for 3.5 weeks now. Granted, due to my disability I do not get out a whole lot any now ( an afterschool program that lasts for 1-2 hours twice a week and church on Sunday, Neither of which are going on at the moment.

 

[Dave G.]

Actually it's a great time to rather than be concentrated on every spec of news that comes down the pike accurate or inaccurate as it may be, to sit quietly face to face with God. And to get some much needed prayer time in with Him.

 

[Halbhh]

Actually it's a great time to rather than be concentrated on every spec of news that comes down the pike accurate or inaccurate as it may be, to sit quietly face to face with God. And to get some much needed prayer time in with Him.

Totally agree. Repentance. Daily prayer. First things first. Second things second. One thing I recommend so many times I fear to repeat it, but should, is to pray the prayer Christ gave us to pray each day, before going on the internet. It makes a difference! That's understatement.

 

[Al Touthentop]

I thought this was really interesting a day or 3 back (?) (so many articles), but was too busy to post it. It turns out there is a way to know that the shelter in place, stay at home -- which even the slow, slow Texas Governor is finally doing, though he doesn't want to call it what it is -- actually works. Of course....that is if the people of the region/state actually do it pretty well... If.

For those staying at home, there has been a very dramatic drop in the fevers rate:

"...Kinsa Health, which produces internet-connected thermometers, first created a national map of fever levels on March 22 and was able to spot the trend within a day. Since then, data from the health departments of New York State and Washington State have buttressed the finding, making it clear that social distancing is saving lives.

The trend has become so obvious that on Sunday, President Trump extended until the end of April his recommendation that Americans stay in lockdown. Mr. Trump had hoped to lift restrictions by Easter and send Americans back to work.

“That would have been the worst possible Easter surprise,” said Dr. Peter J. Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, who added that he thought the Kinsa predictions were based on “very robust technology.”

Kinsa’s thermometers upload the user’s temperature readings to a centralized database; the data enable the company to track fevers across the United States....

Kinsa has more than one million thermometers in circulation and has been getting up to 162,000 daily temperature readings since Covid-19 began spreading in the country...."

Restrictions Are Slowing Coronavirus Infections, New Data Suggest

As one can see at the site, typical rates of fevers have dropped drastically for those sheltering in place.

This will make a difference, for the areas where people actually do the recommended practices of keeping distances from others. And by the way, if someone is actually coughing or sneezing then one needs even more than only 6 feet (though a mask could help some) if you are in front of them. But even just talking spreads the virus from those asymptomatic spreaders (they don't even have a chance to know they are spreading it), which is why Governors are trying to get people to listen. Most Governors. Most.

Tell me, how much sense does it make though for a shelter in place recommendation to exclude churches? Little. God does not need you to be in a certain building or certain location in order for Him to be present for you.

It's also interesting you can look up your local infection rate, but a caution about that: even if it is low, that doesn't mean you are perfectly safe to congregate at a party or cookout....

Hysteria and bad data do not prove that tyranny is a solution to any problem. Governors and Presidents have no authority to make laws. That is reserved for the legislature alone.

 

[Halbhh]

Hysteria and bad data do not prove that tyranny is a solution to any problem. Governors and Presidents have no authority to make laws. That is reserved for the legislature alone.

Well, the elected legislatures have usually given specific powers to executives for emergencies. By law. But the use of those powers are still subject to voter review in the next election.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Well, the elected legislatures have usually given specific powers to executives for emergencies. By law. But the use of those powers are still subject to voter review in the next election.

A lot of good that does anyone when those dictates cause economic ruin and chaos. The way to stop the spread of disease since the very first pandemic was the quarantine of sick people, not healthy people.

The orders of governors and the President to cease all commerce are illegal and dangerous. They are not helping.

 

[Halbhh]

A lot of good that does anyone when those dictates cause economic ruin and chaos. The way to stop the spread of disease since the very first pandemic was the quarantine of sick people, not healthy people.

The orders of governors and the President to cease all commerce are illegal and dangerous. They are not helping.

To be like South Korea -- what you are saying we should do, and I agree that's best -- we'd need to do what South Korea does.

 

[Al Touthentop]

To be like South Korea -- what you are saying we should do, and I agree that's best -- we'd need to do what South Korea does.

And more importantly, they formulated their plan after having reacted so poorly during their MERS epidemic. They learned from their mistakes. They committed 10 billion and did well. We're repeating the mistakes they learned from and have committed at least 4 Trillion to clean up the destruction we've wrought. It's just crazy.

 

[pitabread]

The way to stop the spread of disease since the very first pandemic was the quarantine of sick people, not healthy people.

Bit too late for that now.

 

[Al Touthentop]

Bit too late for that now.

It's really not. But it would be hard to do and also save face.

 

[pitabread]

It's really not. But it would be hard to do and also save face.

How would you suggest quarantining only the infected individuals at this stage?

Especially since given how rapid the spread of the virus has been even identifying all infected individuals would be near impossible?

 

[Al Touthentop]

How would you suggest quarantining only the infected individuals at this stage?

Especially since given how rapid the spread of the virus has been even identifying all infected individuals would be near impossible?

The same you would at any stage. By quarantining those who test positive. What you're saying is that every past epidemic handled in that way was wrong. Spanish Flu, Polio, Bubonic plague, etc etc etc. Covid-19 is totally different than any other disease that ever existed and thus our response must be novel and unscientific.

In fact, you don't have to test every case. You can do what they do now which is to presume a person as having it with out testing if they're showing symptoms that seem consistent with the virus. It may come as a shock to you but a large number of the cases that are reported are not even tested but presumed covid-19.

 

[pitabread]

In fact, you don't have to test every case. You can do what they do now which is to presume a person as having it with out testing if they're showing symptoms that seem consistent with the virus. It may come as a shock to you but a large number of the cases that are reported are not even tested but presumed covid-19.

The problem is that many people who have it may show mild or no symptoms at all. So it's not just a matter of testing or presuming that people with symptoms have it.

In order to identify the infected, you'd basically need to test everyone. So how do you plan to test over 300 million people?

 

[Al Touthentop]

The problem is that many people who have it may show mild or no symptoms at all. So it's not just a matter of testing or presuming that people with symptoms have it.

In order to identify the infected, you'd basically need to test everyone. So how do you plan to test over 300 million people?

You don't have to do that at all. What's different about this disease than every other disease we've dealt with in the past? The answer is nothing at all. We've even dealt with coronaviruses in the past. In fact, it cannot be proven that this virus is "novel" just that we didn't identify it until recently. That might explain why the numbers are so low by comparison to other diseases. Maybe lots of people got it in years previous and we just hadn't identified it at the time. That may explain why H1N1 turned out to be a bust.

But again, a large number of those said to have Covid-19 weren't tested.

 

[pitabread]

Maybe lots of people got it in years previous and we just hadn't identified it at the time.

I'm sorry, but what? How exactly would a disease that appears both more infectious and much deadlier than normal influenza have gone unnoticed in years' past if it really had been infecting populations at the time?

Anyway, the origin of the disease will likely be confirmed through continued work on phylogenetic analysis. I'll trust in the science in this as opposed to blanket speculation.

 

[Halbhh]

To get to the situation like South Korea, we'd need a largely successful stay at home period and a powerful ramp up in tests to be able to test perhaps 5 million in a day nationally, and effective ability to require those that test positive to quarantine and be supported financially and in job protection while they quarantine.

We'd basically have to make a big effort to transition to a South Korean situation. But we have made some key steps, and it's possible in time if we ramp up testing and put the pieces in place. It's less planning than WWII.

 

[Al Touthentop]

I'm sorry, but what? How exactly would a disease that appears both more infectious and much deadlier than normal influenza have gone unnoticed in years' past if it really had been infecting populations at the time?

Both of the facts you state there have not been established at all. It's not been proven more infectious or deadly. Flu killed 3 times as many people in the past 6 months as has covid-19 in the past 5 months. It has a lot of catching up do do.

We think that 1 milion people have gotten CV in the past 5 months. 45-90 million people got the flu and over 22 thousand died and it's still killing people.

Flu dwarfs covid-19 in terms of virulence. It isn't even close. 45 to 90 times greater in fact.

 

[Al Touthentop]

To get to the situation like South Korea, we'd need a largely successful stay at home period and a powerful ramp up in tests to be able to test perhaps 5 million in a day nationally, and effective ability to require those that test positive to quarantine and be supported financially and in job protection while they quarantine.

We'd basically have to make a big effort to transition to a South Korean situation. But we have made some key steps, and it's possible in time if we ramp up testing and put the pieces in place. It's less planning than WWII.

S. Korea didn't have a stay at home period. They tried that in 2013 and it was a disaster and had no effect.

Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.

Apparently the US, the alleged example of freedom for the world has decided to emulate communist China rather than the democratic republic of South Korea.