That's what I believe. I believe that the modern state of Israel we see today is indeed a counterfeit Israel.
They are going to build their 3rd temple soon - and if you think about how Jesus Christ would view this 3rd temple that too makes the matter clear. The 3rd temple will be a great offence to Jesus Christ and His sacrifice on the cross. The 3rd temple they will build is actually going to be built for the Anti-Christ, so the modern day state of Israel is actually setting up Jerusalem for the Anti-Christ and his kingdom, they are not setting things up for Jesus Christ.
While you are correct in some of what you say , it is not being a counterfeit Israel when you consider the entire bible account . There will be a blessed Israel where Jesus will reign from on the same location that the present Israel is located , it is understanding what the prophecies say that needs to be understood
Just as Jesus knew he would be crucified before he came to earth , to be crucified is why he came to earth , as that is the only way that all of humankind would be able to spend eternity with HIM .
Jesus knows everything , there is nothing he does not know before it happens , Jesus had been telling his disciples all along that the prophetic scriptures Must be fulfilled , just as he referred to when he healed the soldiers ear in the garden, and also he knew beforehand that Judas would betray Him for 30 pieces of silver .
Jesus spoke of that at the last supper and when Jesus pointed out who Jesus was in the night
The orthodox Jews are partially blinded now just as they were in Jesus time on earth . They have longed to have their nation again and resume the old ways of their ancient history . They love YHWH Almighty God, but are blinded and do not understand that the Great I AM is actually Jesus so they are looking for their messiah to come being blinded to the fact that Jesus is the messiah , just as the messianic Jews understand this and have accepted Jesus as Lord of all.
The temple that will be built will be in honor to worship YHWH God and they will resume their old traditions being blinded to who Jesus actually is .
But they are not building the temple for the Anti- Christ , they are building it for YHWH as they do not believe in an Anti-Christ because they are expecting their messiah to come and because they have not yet repented of their sins , they will be blinded by the false messiah/Anti-Christ and accept the strong delusion - Just as in the scripture I posted previously where God is saying --
24 But since you refuse to listen when I call
and no one pays attention when I stretch out my hand,
25 since you disregard all my advice
and do not accept my rebuke,
26 I in turn will laugh when disaster strikes you;
I will mock when calamity overtakes you—
27 when calamity overtakes you like a storm,
when disaster sweeps over you like a whirlwind,
when distress and trouble overwhelm you.
28 “Then they will call to me but I will not answer;
they will look for me but will not find me,
29 since they hated knowledge
and did not choose to fear the Lord.
30 Since they would not accept my advice
and spurned my rebuke,
31 they will eat the fruit of their ways
and be filled with the fruit of their schemes.
they will accept the false messiah and calamity will fall upon them because they spurned what the Lord said to do and repent
It is all a part of the fulfillment of prophecy
As a Christian we can see what will happen and and some thinking in a carnal manner may call it counterfeit but that is not a correct word for it as when a person choose to counterfeit anything , they are knowingly intently creating a counterfeit - as in counterfeit money , the counterfeiter knows it is a fake trying to pass it off as genuine.
Israel has no intent to pass off anything fake as genuine - they sincerely believe deeply that they are being genuine - which is how they will fall for the strong delusion thee Anti-Christ delivers as it is being sent by God to cause them to believe the lie/ strong delusion ......because they refuse to repent and refuse to listen to the LORD
Some will repent and those that do will , their lives will be spared , those who refuse to listen to the LORD and repent will die , just like any gentile that refuses to repent will die