Texas Lynn
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- Dec 17, 2002
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Do we forget that in the begining of this nation, the choice was between the Federalists and the Democratic Republicans? And later between the Democrats and the Wigs? The GOP was a "Third party" Until Lincoln was elected. So to will it be that one of the third parties will one day bump one of the two off the ticket.
The dominance of the top two parties, Democrats and Republicans, has endured since 1860 and is not too very likely to change.
Third parties who had some effects included:
1. 1892 and 1896 - Populist Party (allied with Democrats)
2. 1912 and 1924 - Progressive Party (Theodore Roosevelt running for a third term and Robert LaFollette)
3. 1948 - States Rights Party (Dixiecrats, Strom Thurmond) and Progressive Party (Henry Wallace)
4. 1968 - American Independent Party (George Wallace)
5. 1992 and 1996 - Reform Party (Ross Perot)
6. 2000 - Green Party (Ralph Nader)
Of these only LaFollette and Wallace won electoral votes, LaFollette those of his home state of Wisconsin, and Wallace of 5 Deep South States, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia (Thurmond, by then a Republican, delivered South Carolina to Richard Nixon). Only Nader affected the balance-had Nader's votes all gone to Gore, Gore would have won the electoral college by carrying, in addition to the states he won, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Florida (Florida's close vote would thereby not have resulted in a court challenge).
That is as good as it gets for third parties in the last 150 years more or less. The duopoly stands largely because people are satisfied with the two major parties and it's hard to get third parties on the ballot in most states. The two major parties tend to coopt third party movements by adopting watered down versions of their rhetoric and ideas.
Sure, there's a chance the "teabagger" movement could evolve into a meaningful third party, but not likely. It is mostly Republicans who are in the movement and the true independents who are in it are coopted by them. They are similar to the Perot voters, who heralded Perot as a businessman who could change things, ignoring realities like how he got rich on contracts with welfare programs and was every bit as much an insider as his Republican and Democratic opponents. If anything the teabaggers are at best an even more minor movement than the Populists, Progressives, Dixciecrats and Wallaceites, and Perotistas.
Go ahead if you want to and start a third party. Without Perot's wealth and ability to self-fund or Wallace's single issue (racism) it's not likely you'll get very far.
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