Rogue Waves

[Chesterton]

There was a thread here recently asking whether there was any historical example of a thing where "the common people" turned out to be right and science turned out to be wrong. I couldn't find the thread to bump it, so, in light of yesterday's tragic event in the Mediterranean I'm making this thread about rogue waves. Scientists long denied there was any such thing, and reports of rogue waves were for centuries attributed to drunken sailors and inept captains making excuses for poor seamanship. But "Many years of research have confirmed that waves of up to 35 meters (110 ft) in height are much more common than mathematical probability theory would predict using a Rayleigh distribution of wave heights." Source: Wiki.

So, to its credit, science is finally catching up with the unwashed masses. Almost makes one wonder: Mermaids?

 

[ArnautDaniel]

That depends on what scientists you are talking to.

The problem is that it really requires a computer to run the non-linear models that generate rogue waves. So people couldn't really say much about these things until the 60's.

The linear models that people used prior to this didn't really have rogue waves.

I don't think people studying non-linear models were denying rogue waves.

 

[Chesterton]

Yeah, but that's like saying scientists couldn't say much about the existence of Pluto until they built a good enough telescope. The analogy would be like common people saying "we believe there's a Pluto", and scientists saying "no, our models indicate there can be no Pluto", and then discovering the people were right when the better telescope was built.

 

[pgp_protector]

Just saw this on Digg.
Cruise Passenger: Rogue Waves Were 'Terrifying' - Europe | Map | News - FOXNews.com

 

[Nostromo]

I think you mean, "common people turned out to be right and scientists were wrong".

 

[ArnautDaniel]

Yeah, but that's like saying scientists couldn't say much about the existence of Pluto until they built a good enough telescope. The analogy would be like common people saying "we believe there's a Pluto", and scientists saying "no, our models indicate there can be no Pluto", and then discovering the people were right when the better telescope was built.

Yes, but you have to give appropriate weight to "what people say".

If most of what people say is wrong, then it is a safe bet to ignore what people say.

The problem is you are taking one example and saying "look people were right".

Sure, people say correct things, but you have to weed it out of all the nonsense they also say.

How much credence do you give hearsay from a random people on the street?

I mean, I guess Elvis must be alive because so many people have seen him.

And for that matter, I guess we can assume there are really big fish out there prone to getting hooked by anglers and but which are eventually able to escape in the end (thus giving us information on the intelligence of really big fish).

The fish example is actually to the point, as the wave stories do sound a bit like fish stories.

 

[Chesterton]

The problem is you are taking one example and saying "look people were right".

I know I am, but as I said this thread is related to another thread from a month or two ago which was asking if there were examples like this. I just couldn't find that thread though. Sorry.

 

[sfs]

This would be a more compelling instance if actual quotations from scientists dismissing the possibility of rogue waves were provided.

 

[Wiccan_Child]

I know I am, but as I said this thread is related to another thread from a month or two ago which was asking if there were examples like this. I just couldn't find that thread though. Sorry.

There are probably a fair number of examples. The way I see it, if you throw enough spaghetti at the wall, some of it's gonna stick...

 

[peadar1987]

There are probably a fair number of examples. The way I see it, if you throw enough spaghetti at the wall, some of it's gonna stick...

I think this demands an experiment! My flatmates have been getting far too much of an easy time recently!

 

[ArnautDaniel]

I know I am, but as I said this thread is related to another thread from a month or two ago which was asking if there were examples like this. I just couldn't find that thread though. Sorry.

Why would you need to prove it?

Just the laws of chance (monkeys and typewriters) mean it was bound to happen.

Of course, the fact that something happened that was bound by chance to happen rarely proves a point.

 

[Wiccan_Child]

Why would you need to prove it?

Just the laws of chance (monkeys and typewriters) mean it was bound to happen.

Of course, the fact that something happened that was bound by chance to happen rarely proves a point.

Unless your point was that it was going to happen .

I think Chesterton just wants examples of when this happens. It may not be of any significance, but it's all just a bit of fun!

 

[ArnautDaniel]

Unless your point was that it was going to happen .

I think Chesterton just wants examples of when this happens. It may not be of any significance, but it's all just a bit of fun!

It looks to me like criticizing scientists for ignoring something they think is unlikely even when average folk say otherwise is supposed to be some kind of dig at science.

I mean if a strategy is right 99% of the time it doesn't discredit the strategy simply to note that it fails 1% of the time.

 

[Chesterton]

Okay, I found the thread I was talking about:

http://www.christianforums.com/t7436370/

Just so Danny understands I wasn't taking a dig at science out of the blue. I'd never do such a thing. (At least not while using a computer. )

 

[Naraoia]

I think this demands an experiment! My flatmates have been getting far too much of an easy time recently!

Who's going to clean up?