Planning to follow up on this more in subsequent posts, but wanted to start with an expression of even greater urgency for this effort after our inter-church meeting this past Sunday and further discussions early in the week. It's above all related to an important development in the destination countries--due to the heavy administrative pressures from the historic mass migration of millions of eastern Europeans into the European Union amidst the Ukraine conflict, we've learned that there has been a corresponding record outflow of the Arab, Turkish, Albanian, Kurdish, Iranian and other Muslims leaving the EU since February 2022, meaning that our historically successful conversion efforts, through which many of these individuals have gone back to start new churches and missions in their home countries, may be facing a shrinking window of opportunity. This also means that for any Americans, Canadians, Australians and others in our missionary groups who had been planning a move to the EU to do ministry, if you do happen to have the option to move up your plans, this would be an historic time to do so! Just to be clear about this, there will still be important opportunities and great value in mission work in Europe years down the road even as the population of potential converts and ex-Muslims shrinks as these individuals return to their home countries--the original efforts in the EU began decades ago to restore and build new churches in Europe, provide the Gospel to populations seeking to re-connect and simply helping to reconstitute those congregations with our own families, as we settle and integrate into those countries. All of those objectives will still be very much in place.
However as many of you involved in this effort know, an historic opportunity fell into our hands starting about 15 years ago as a small but significant population of refugees and migrant workers from countries like Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Lebanon, Iran, Jordan and other nearby lands began to trickle into Europe, many of them already Christian (or Yazid or other religious minority) but many also Muslims deeply dissatisfied due to oppression back home and fanatics like ISIS, and open to ministry and the Gospel. The numbers have never been as large as some media headlines portray, in part since the majority go back home or to another country in the region (particularly the wealthier Gulf oil states, where there are many job opportunities) after a short stay of perhaps a couple years in Europe. But the remaining numbers, around a few million people, are still significant enough that we've been able to achieve a record number of conversions and new members of both established and new churches and Christian institutions in Europe in just the past decade alone. (Some of the new churches esp in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Sweden in fact have a majority of recent converts among their congregants.)
And as has been discussed on several occasions here, this flock of ex-Muslim new converts in Europe, in particular, is of historic importance since for quite practical and immediate reasons, they are able to achieve something that we ourselves, from Western countries, cannot--going back to their home countries in the Middle Eastern region and North Africa, building churches and converting other members of their neighborhoods and locales to our faith. We obviously cannot do this as readily, not only due to potential political sensitivity but simply because those of us in the West do not have as ready access to the cultural and linguistic knowledge, as well as (of most importance) the local connections in the Middle East and within the North African region to achieve regional acceptance for church-building and attraction of locals to services, which often includes a sort of finesse and subtle efforts within villages and towns in the region to encourage the local churches to flourish. In this way, our ministries in Europe have provided us with one of the most historic successes over the past 1,400 years since we can, of course, provide ministry for those who flee to Europe, and the latter in turn are able to do what we cannot directly--bringing the Word of the Lord to their brethren back home. As a result we've been able to experience the joy of a Christian revival within the Middle East and North Africa that we haven't seen in over a millennium. And those churches and new congregations have been stable and able to attract new followers in turn in the region--once again the key to this is that the converts from those cultures are able to minister to their fellow citizens back in their home countries in ways that we can't, and navigate the cultural, political and social subtleties necessary to gain local acceptance. In many cases, and quite importantly, this has even involved the conversion and active support of local elites in the region, which in turn has led to sustained conversion and the rooting of large and growing Christian communities there. This is one of the reasons why for our network of churches, the missions in the EU have taken all precedence, to take advantage of this state of affairs while we have the fleet of new potential missionaries we can reach in the form of that small but significant refugee population in Europe, preparing to return and bring the Gospel to their brothers and sisters in their homelands.
Now as we have learned from our contacts in Europe, this option is narrowing faster than we had expected, due to the pressures from the mass in-flows as result of the conflict in Ukraine. The slides at our inter-church conference on Sunday were quite striking, and it's hard to convey the extent of the mass migration into Europe from not only the Ukraine but also Russia and Belarus. By some estimates, close to 7-8 million eastern Europeans have flowed into the EU in the past 4 months alone, but it is widely believed that on the order of 10 to 11 million, and perhaps up to 15 million, will be pouring into the European Union countries as the war winds down and in the months and the first year or two afterward (as the migrant flows are often highest after the immediate conflict itself). And while some of the migrants will go back, most are expected to stay. Early indications are that many of the Ukrainians, a very strong and patriotic people, are indeed already returning to rebuild their homeland. Still the studies and reports suggest that a bit less than half of the Ukrainians will be remaining permanently in the EU. Of far greater importance in sheer numbers, however, is that based on our reports so far, almost all of the Russians and Belarussians who have made it into the EU will be staying there permanently, and indeed the authorities have confirmed they can never be sent back, as virtually all of them are asylees fleeing the danger of conscription, persecution or other repercussions if they go back to Russia or Belarus. And this number is expected to be enormous, already exceeding 4 million and by most estimates expected to exceed 10 million people! To put into perspective, this is an even greater mass movement than during the world wars, and it's putting great strain on the EU's housing, jobs and administrative resources.
For that reason, there has been an even greater and more rapid outflow than expected of the Syrians, Iraqis, Turks, Kurds, North Africans, Persians, Lebanese and other such populations in Europe, back to their home countries or to the broader Middle Eastern and North African region. France, Spain and Italy in particular have seen a surge of Algerians, Tunisians and Moroccans going back home or to oil-producing countries in the Gulf, while Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, Belgium and other countries are seeing a mass return of the Syrians, Turks, Iraqis and other guests in their countries, back to their homelands or to neighboring countries--over half of that population already, from our recent updates. The reason, of course, is that with available administrative resources and housing in the EU being redirected to the mass in-flows from eastern Europe, there simply isn't much left for prior migrants (who are also losing their temporary status and options to stay), thus the mass return home among the migrants and refugees from the Middle Eastern and North African region. What this means for us then is that we may have a shorter window than expected to bring the Gospel to these individuals before they make their back to their home countries, with the historic results we have been witnessing. And thus once again, if you've even briefly considered the opportunities for ministry within the EU, don't hesitate, since now would be the time! Particularly for those of you with documentable European ancestry--able to qualify you and your families for jus sanguinis (citizenship in Europe based on ancestral descent)--you can move to Europe and manage to become fully settled there quite rapidly. Don't worry too much about the logistics, learning the languages and getting set up with the local churches there--all of those arrangements can be made once you've gotten settled in Europe, and there is a large and well-established local infrastructure already there to help you with all of those steps. The key is to simply do what you can to initiate the process, as there is inevitably a delay with the administrative process that all EU countries have even for their ethnic diaspora returning home. (As a bonus for families in the United States, Canada and Australia who are homeowners, you'd be selling your home at the top of what most economists are now saying is a huge housing bubble, which would of course make the financial side of things even easier in setting up in the EU.) We'll have more particular updates and details as our own ministry teams work out the specifics.
