Ozone

[MartinM]

Are you saying adhering to the Kyoto protocol would not at least slow global warming?

Assuming we buy the projections in the first place, assuming that everyone signs up to Kyoto, and assuming that all the targets are hit - yes, it would slow global warming. By a few hundredths of a degree over the next century. The impact of Kyoto on global climate would be immeasurably small.

 

[lucaspa]

You live in the northern hemisphere what about the poor people living inthe SH. A massive increase in skin cancer making it so children cannot be exposed to the sun for the mid part of the day. How about a little compassion and a recognition of how the first world countries have created a problem that should have been seen thirty years ago

OK, let's look at this a bit.

1. The ozone hole occurs during SH winter. Up until now it has been over Antarctica where there is no one to really affect and those that are there are underground or so bundled up that no UV can affect them anyway.

2. IF the OH is moving over populated S. America, that is a new ball game. I'm still not sure you get a "massive increase in skin cancer" and it is still winter so kids should be dressed warmly on a winter's day.

3. No one foresaw that CFCs would make a hole in the ozone. When it was recognized, it was the first world who banned -- years ago -- the chemicals causing ozone depletion that they were aware of. The question is: is chlorine the most abundant ozone-depleting chemical and does most of it come from volcanoes? If so, then it's not a man-made problem

 

[MartinM]

IF the OH is moving over populated S. America, that is a new ball game. I'm still not sure you get a "massive increase in skin cancer" and it is still winter so kids should be dressed warmly on a winter's day

I believe in particularly bad years, there has been an effect over some populated areas. Needless to say, the UV levels experienced at these times are still way below normal summer levels.

 

[lucaspa]

http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Ozone_Depletion/Older/ODCs.html
http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Ozone_Depletion/Older/Volcanoes.html
http://www.doc.mmu.ac.uk/aric/eae/Ozone_Depletion/Older/Ozone_Hole.html

 

[lucaspa]

The major ozone depleting chemical is chlorine. The largest source of atmospheric chlorine is volcanos. I therefore suggest that the hole in the ozone layer is primarily due to volcanic activity.

The second website I posted disputes this claim. It appears that the HCl produced by volcanoes doesn't make it up far enough in the atmosphere.

 

[lucaspa]

http://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/info/ozone_anim.html

 

[lucaspa]

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/jds/ozone/data/SP0304.GIF


According to this data, the "hole" hasn't hit S. America. So the whole premise of the hysteria is unfounded.

 

[MartinM]

The second website I posted disputes this claim. It appears that the HCl produced by volcanoes doesn't make it up far enough in the atmosphere.

Hmm, they're overstating their case somewhat. Volcanic activity does contribute to ozone depletion, although it's not enough to account for the observed variability.

 

[MartinM]

According to this data, the "hole" hasn't hit S. America. So the whole premise of the hysteria is unfounded

Not a great surprise. The process by which chlorine depletes ozone is actually pretty weak, except in the presence of a solid surface on which to act. Only at the poles is the stratosphere cold enough for cloud formation. Those polar straospheric clouds greatly increase the rate of the reaction.

 

[lucaspa]

Assuming we buy the projections in the first place, assuming that everyone signs up to Kyoto, and assuming that all the targets are hit - yes, it would slow global warming. By a few hundredths of a degree over the next century. The impact of Kyoto on global climate would be immeasurably small.

What's your data backing this conclusion?

 

[lucaspa]

Hmm, they're overstating their case somewhat. Volcanic activity does contribute to ozone depletion, although it's not enough to account for the observed variability.

No, they do say it contributes. They specifically mention Pinatubo as ejecting the dust with HCl high enough to reach the appropriate height. It's just that most eruptions don't. So the HCl from volcanoes is a minor contribution.

 

[lucaspa]

Not a great surprise. The process by which chlorine depletes ozone is actually pretty weak, except in the presence of a solid surface on which to act. Only at the poles is the stratosphere cold enough for cloud formation. Those polar straospheric clouds greatly increase the rate of the reaction.

If you look at the movie there were two vortices of ozone depletion bad enough to be called "holes" near Australia, but they dissipated fairly rapidly. This might have been the wandering hole that the poster was referring to. But they were over the extreme S. Pacific, not S. America.

This year the hole was huge, covering all of Antarctica and extending over the ocean nealy to Tierra del Fuego.

 

[MartinM]

What's your data backing this conclusion?

Wigley, T. M. L. 1998
The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4, and climate implications
Geophys. Res. Lett. Vol. 25 , No. 13 , p. 2285

 

[MartinM]

They specifically mention Pinatubo as ejecting the dust with HCl high enough to reach the appropriate height. It's just that most eruptions don't

That's true enough, but there are transport mechanisms which allow the HCl from smaller eruptions to reach the stratosphere. While it's true that the vast majority of it will be rained out before that happens, there will be a small contribution. Also, there are other effects - for example, formation of stratospheric aerosol particles which play much the same role as polar stratospheric clouds.

 

[MartinM]

If you look at the movie there were two vortices of ozone depletion bad enough to be called "holes" near Australia, but they dissipated fairly rapidly. This might have been the wandering hole that the poster was referring to. But they were over the extreme S. Pacific, not S. America.

This year the hole was huge, covering all of Antarctica and extending over the ocean nealy to Tierra del Fuego

The effect is strongly dependent on temperature. I wonder if it was a particularly cold winter in Antarctica?

 

[Jet Black]

Wigley, T. M. L. 1998
The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4, and climate implications
Geophys. Res. Lett. Vol. 25 , No. 13 , p. 2285

sigh.. I wish I could get hold of journals easily these days

I always wonder about these, when there seems to be sich a large disparity in the predictions by different groups, ranging from greenpeace's "[bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] we're gonna die!!!!1111122" to Shell's "hey, burn 15 gallons to the mile and we will still be fine" predictions. The sensible thing to me seems to be to err on the side of caution, but then the big industrialists will all be dead and buried when we find out who is right about global warming.

 

[MartinM]

I always wonder about these, when there seems to be sich a large disparity in the predictions by different groups, ranging from greenpeace's "[bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse][bless and do not curse] we're gonna die!!!!1111122" to Shell's "hey, burn 15 gallons to the mile and we will still be fine" predictions

I know what you mean. My current position is that we lack the capacity to make any meaningful predictions.

 

[Jet Black]

I know what you mean. My current position is that we lack the capacity to make any meaningful predictions.

yeap, which is why I run this. though I am not sure which out of running this program and not leaving my computer on 24/7 is better for the environment. oh well

 

[MartinM]

Ah. yes. 'We don't have enough computing power to run one good climate model, so let's run a million bad ones on home PCs'. Ingenious.

 

[Jet Black]

Ah. yes. 'We don't have enough computing power to run one good climate model, so let's run a million bad ones on home PCs'. Ingenious.

it provides me with a false sense of doing good too